NFL Mock Draft 1.0 Based on Vegas Odds with Josh Larky

by Joshua Larky · NFL Draft

The betting markets guide this Round 1 NFL Mock Draft 1.0, compiled and written up by Josh Larky.

Throughout this article, betting odds from DraftKings Sportsbook will be accompanied by the implied percentage odds for ease of reading. Ex. -200 bets need to hit 67% of the time for us to make money long-term.

PlayerProfiler is home to award winning dynasty rankings and tools. Our Dynasty Deluxe package includes complete Dynasty Rankings, Rookie Rankings, Trade Analyzer, Draft Planner, Mock Drafts, and more. Check it out.

No. 1 – Bears (from Carolina)

Pick: QB Caleb Williams

The Bears get their franchise QB. Caleb Williams gets a historic supporting cast for a 1st overall pick (WR DJ Moore, WR Keenan Allen, TE Cole Kmet, RB D’Andre Swift, and a competent offensive line). Williams to the Bears is listed at -10000 odds (99%) on most sportsbooks. Therefore, this is the most confident pick (obviously) in this mock. Williams’ ability to create out of structure when plays break down reminds many scouts of Patrick Mahomes. Essentially, even when the defense *wins* by pressuring Mahomes before he’s ready, he can move outside the pocket and give his receivers additional time to create separation. Williams is arguably a better athlete than Mahomes. As a result, the ceiling is incredibly high.

No. 2 – Commanders

Pick: QB Jayden Daniels 

After some back and forth between Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye at Pick No. 2, Daniels has picked up steam as the chalk pick here at -290 (74%) odds. Daniels is a cross between Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson. He is a dynamic athlete with a surprisingly strong throwing resume. Quarterbacks Drake Maye (+220, 31%) and J.J. McCarthy (+750, 12%) are also in slight consideration here, via the bettors.

No. 3 – Patriots

Pick: QB Drake Maye

The Patriots select their next franchise QB in Drake Maye. Maye is a 2-year starter at North Carolina who is still just 21 years old. Think lesser Justin Herbert as a passer, but with the legs of Daniel Jones. This is a very exciting combination. Maye is listed as the -145 (59%) favorite to go in this slot. Quarterbacks J.J. McCarthy (+205, 33%) and Jayden Daniels (+260, 28%) also listed as plausible options.

No. 4 – Cardinals

Pick: WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 

From the Hall of Fame bloodlines to back-to-back 1,200 yard with 14 touchdown seasons as a sophomore and junior, Harrison is a borderline perfect receiving prospect. He’s the -175 (64%) favorite to go at Pick No. 4. Quarterbacks J.J. McCarthy (+175, 36%) and Drake Maye (+600, 14%) are also in play should the Cardinals trade back.

Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride could combine for 300 targets in 2024 should this pick come to fruition.

No. 5 – Chargers (TRADE with Vikings)

Pick: QB JJ McCarthy

This Chargers pick was one of the most difficult to pin down. Betting markets have the Chargers more likely to go offensive line (-175, 64%) than wide receiver (+200, 33%) with their first pick. However, consensus top offensive tackle Joe Alt is listed at just +475 (17%) to get selected at this draft slot. 

The three current favorites to go at Pick No. 5 are Malik Nabers (+220, 31%), Marvin Harrison Jr. (+275, 27%), and J.J. McCarthy (+275, 27%). Harrison is already off the board in this mock. Malik Nabers is just +160 (38%) to go in the top-5. However, McCarthy is -175 (64%) to get selected in the top-5. He’s also +125 (44%) to go to the Vikings, specifically.

Using the trade value chart from DraftTek, the Vikings get Pick No. 5 (1700 value) from the Chargers while trading away Pick No. 11 (1250 value) and Pick No. 23 (760 value). It’s a slight overpay when using the chart which is historically very common when a team trades up for the quarterback position.

McCarthy is set up well long-term in this scenario. The Vikings have a solid offensive line. They also have an elite receiving trio in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson. Pass-catching RB Aaron Jones will also help his rookie year development as a short-area security blanket until Hockenson returns (ACL).

No. 6 – Giants

Pick: WR Malik Nabers

The Giants are heavily favored to select a WR (-225, 69%) using their first pick. Quarterback (+175, 36%) is the next most likely outcome. Daniel Jeremiah’s 3.0 Mock Draft has Nabers to New York, too. Betting markets also have WR Rome Odunze (+250, 29%) as a candidate to go at Pick No. 6 overall.

While the quarterback situation is shaky, Nabers can immediately step into 140-150 targets. The Giants will take Nabers. None of Jalin Hyatt, Wan’Dale Robinson, or Darius Slayton are even remotely comparable to Nabers’ caliber.

No. 7 – Titans

Pick: OT Joe Alt

The Titans are heavily favored (-350, 78%) to take an offensive lineman with their first pick. Alt is the consensus best offensive lineman in a class filled with good ones and the chalk pick to go at No. 7 overall (-175, 64%). He should help the Titans improve what was a bottom-3 blocking unit last season.

No. 8 – Falcons

Pick: EDGE Dallas Turner

Peter Schrager’s recent mock draft had Dallas Turner heading to Atlanta. Betting markets list the Falcons at -210 (68%) to select an edge with their first pick. Turner himself is also the most likely individual player to go at Pick No. 8 (+170, 37%), with EDGES Laiatu Latu (+350, 22%) and Jared Verse (+600, 14%) also in the Pick No. 8 conversation. Turner helps a Falcons defense that finished near the bottom of the league in sacks last year.

No. 9 – Bears

Pick: WR Rome Odunze

Odunze is the most likely player to go Pick No. 9 overall (+150, 40%), with EDGE Jared Verse (+275, 27%) also gaining some traction here. While Odunze may be the clear No. 3 behind D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen as a rookie, Allen’s unlikely to be a Chicago Bear in 2025. Caleb Williams, Moore, and Rome Odunze is an elite offensive core to build around for years to come. 

Odunze is as well-rounded as they come. He is the first WR to earn all-green route-running status from Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception methodology.

No. 10 – Jets

Pick: TE Brock Bowers

The Jets as a team are actually slightly more favored to draft an offensive lineman with their first pick (+120, 45%) over a tight end (+140, 42%). However, when looking at Pick No. 10 specifically, Bowers (+150, 40%) dwarfs OT Taliese Fuaga (+600, 14%) in the betting markets. This pick also allows Bowers UNDER Pick 12.5 (-145, 59%) bets to hit as well.

Bowers plays like a smaller George Kittle. He is elite after the catch. At Georgia, Bowers consistently out-produced consensus top-8 WR Ladd McConkey even though McConkey is older. Even more surprising is Georgia’s dedication to getting the ball in Bowers’ hands in space. Bowers finished his college career with more rushing attempts than Deebo Samuel had in college.

No. 11 – Vikings (TRADE with Chargers)

Pick: OT Taliese Fuaga

As mentioned earlier, the Chargers are favored to go offensive line (-140, 58%) over receiver (+165, 38%) with their first pick. Fuaga pairs nicely with Rashawn Slater to give the Chargers an elite, young 1-2 punch at tackle. Fuaga himself is listed at -130 (57%) to get selected before Pick No. 14 in the NFL Draft.

No. 12 – Broncos

Pick: EDGE Laiatu Latu

The Broncos are an interesting team. They are listed at +100 (50%) to select a quarterback with their first pick. However, it’s hard to envision what a trade up looks like for them. It’s probably too early for Penix, whose draft slot over/under is listed at 32.5.

The Broncos’ next most likely outcome with their first pick is EDGE (+250, 29%), and Latu should bolster a pass rush that vastly underwhelmed last season. Peter Schrager had this exact pick in his recent mock draft. Additionally, the betting markets have Latu going before Pick No. 19 at -200 (67%) odds.

No. 13 – Raiders

Pick: OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu

The Raiders are listed at +150 (40%) to go cornerback, +160 (38%) to go offensive line, and +230 (30%) to select a quarterback with their first pick. It’s still too early for Penix or Bo Nix at quarterback. However, the 6-6 312-pounds. Fashanu definitely makes Las Vegas a more attractive destination for quarterbacks in the future. He’s favored to be off the board by Pick No. 14 (-145, 59%) on DraftKings. Schrager placed Fashanu on the Raiders in his recent mock as well.

No. 14 – Saints

Pick: OT JC Latham

The Saints are almost certainly going offensive line with their first pick (-300, 75%). Latham is the best one available here.

Additionally, he is a -185 (65%) favorite to be off the board before Pick No. 15. Derek Carr gets more time to allow plays to develop, which should also benefit speedy receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed.

No. 15 – Colts

Pick: CB Quinyon Mitchell

The Colts are expected to take a cornerback (+110, 48%) rather than a wide receiver (+225, 31%) or tight end (+370, 21%) with their first pick in the draft. Mitchell is the favorite in the betting markets to be the first defensive back off the board.

No. 16 – Seahawks

Pick: DL Byron Murphy

The Seahawks are slightly more likely to go offensive line (-150, 60%) rather than defensive line (+140, 42%) with their first pick. However, Murphy is also heavily juiced to -220 (69%) odds to go before Pick No. 17 overall. Murphy is widely regarded as the best interior defensive line prospect. He fortifies a Seahawks team that had to trot out the aging Jarran Reed at nose tackle last season.

No. 17 – Jaguars

Pick: CB Terrion Arnold

The Jaguars are presumably taking a cornerback with their first pick (-185, 65%). Terrion Arnold‘s over/under is set at Pick No. 15.5 in the betting markets. Arnold should immediately improve what was a pass defense to target last season.

No. 18 – Bengals

Pick: OT Troy Fautanu

The Bengals have struggled throughout Joe Burrow‘s career to adequately protect him. They are listed at -200 (67%) to go offensive line with their first pick. Fautanu’s over/under draft slot is listed at 15.5, with slight juice towards the under, so you could argue he should have been off the board at Pick No. 16 to Seattle.

No. 19 – Rams

Pick: EDGE Jared Verse

The Rams are expected (in the betting markets) to go EDGE (-160, 62%) with their first selection, though Peter Schrager would staunchly argue the betting markets are wrong here.

“I’ll go on record with something of a guarantee here: If the Rams do not trade back, you better believe Sean McVay’s first-ever first-round selection will be an offensive player.”

Verse isn’t a 1-for-1 Aaron Donald replacement (no player is). However, it would be a good start to retooling this defense.

No. 20 – Steelers

Pick: OT Tyler Guyton

Guyton fits right in the line with what Arthur Smith wants to do: bully opposing defenses and slow the game down.

The Steelers are expected (-330, 77%) to select an offensive lineman with their first pick. Guyton should be going off the board in the 20’s on draft night [him going before draft slot 30 is listed at -250 (71%) on DraftKings].

No. 21 – Dolphins

Pick: IOL Graham Barton

Graham Barton improves the interior of the Dolphins line to help protect Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins are slightly more likely to go offensive line (-150, 60%) here than EDGE (+200, 33%). Barton himself is -135 (57%) to be off the board by Pick No. 21.

No. 22 – Eagles

Pick: DB Cooper DeJean

The Eagles are a tough team to figure out. Offensive line (+140, 42%), defensive back (+140, 42%), and EDGE (+200, 33%) are all in the mix for their first selection. The ultra-athletic DeJean should improve a pass defense that collapsed last year. Additionally, his over/under draft slot is listed at 22.5 in the betting markets.

No. 23 – Vikings (from Cleveland through Houston) [Now the Chargers Pick Due to Trade]

Pick: WR Brian Thomas

Earlier, the Chargers interest in wide receiver was discussed. Thomas immediately steps in as the top option for Justin Herbert. His ability to stretch the field should also improve the run game efficiency to new head coach Jim Harbaugh’s delight.

Thomas going after Pick No. 16 is listed at -155 (61%) odds. After whiffing on WR Quentin Johnston last year, the team goes right back to the well to find a field-stretching receiver to pair with Herbert’s elite arm strength. At the NFL Combine, Thomas ran a 4.33 40-time while measuring 6-3 209-poumds. That is a size-speed combo that few defensive backs can properly cover.

No. 24 – Cowboys

Pick: iOL Jackson Powers-Johnson

The Cowboys are expected to fortify their offensive line with their first pick (-175, 64%). Powers-Johnson is a likely Round 1 pick (-140, 58%) who brings tremendous size (6-3 328-pounds) to the interior.

No. 25 – Packers

Pick: OT Amarius Mims

Both Schrager and Jeremiah have Mims landing in Green Bay in their mock drafts. The Packers as a team are -250 (71%) to select an offensive lineman with their first pick. Mims will protect Jordan Love during the season, but this also protects bettors taking the OVER (-130, 57%) on his 22.5 draft pick slot.

No. 26 – Buccaneers

Pick: EDGE Chop Robinson

The Buccaneers will be looking at three position groups with their Round 1 selection: EDGE (+150, 40%), offensive line (+200, 33%), and cornerback (+220, 31%).

Robinson is expected to be off the board before Pick No. 27 (-120, 55%) with many teams tantalized by his 4.48 speed at 254-pounds.

No. 27 – Cardinals (from Houston)

Pick: DL Darius Robinson

Darius Robinson is listed at -400 (80%) to go in Round 1. The Cardinals have been linked to a defensive lineman at this selection. This would be their third Round 1 pick of 2024.

No. 28 – Bills

Pick: WR Adonai Mitchell

After trading away Stefon Diggs, the Bills desperately need wide receiver help. They are -280 (74%) to select a receiver with their first pick. Mitchell is -800 (89%) to go in the first round, and his draft slot over/under is at 27.5. 

While the fantasy community is mixed on Mitchell, due to the lack of efficient production, the 6-2 205-pound receiver ran a 4.34 40-yard-dash at the NFL Combine, showing off superb size and speed. Additionally, Mitchell had similar per game production to Ladd McConkey at Georgia in 2021 when he was a freshman and McConkey was a sophomore. Perhaps the production concerns are overblown with Mitchell’s prospect profile.

No. 29 – Lions

Pick: CB Nate Wiggins

The Lions are likely taking a cornerback (+135, 43%) here. Offensive line (+275, 27%), receiver (+300, 25%), and EDGE (+300, 25%) are also in the mix. Wiggins is a -650 (87%) favorite to get selected within the first round of the draft. The Lions’ pass defense was a major disappointment last season. Wiggins should help this unit significantly.

No. 30 – Ravens

Pick: OT Jordan Morgan

Morgan is expected to sneak into Round 1 (-140, 58%).’s Lance Zierlein graded him at 6.36, thinking he can become a plus starter over time. The Ravens likely go offensive line here (-230, 70%), a boon to Lamar Jackson and the newly signed Derrick Henry.

No. 31 – 49ers

Pick: CB Kool-Aid McKinstry

This was a tough call, as the 49ers are favored to draft an offensive lineman (-160, 62%). However, so many teams ahead of them are also in the market for the position. McKinstry is listed at -300 (75%) to go in Round 1. The 49ers’ fourth-most likely position to select here is cornerback at +475 (17%). The 49ers pass defense has consistently been susceptible to the big play. This selection works to stop that trend.

No. 32 – Chiefs

Pick: WR Xavier Worthy

This is the pick fantasy enthusiasts and draft analysts can get behind. Worthy is -250 (71%) to go inside of Round 1, and the Chiefs are expected to draft a receiver (-110, 52%) with their first pick. He set the record for fastest 40-time in combine history, and he’s a surprisingly polished route runner, too. This isn’t a Henry Ruggs situation.

Worthy is not quite as fast as Tyreek Hill in and out of his breaks but having him and Marquise Brown on the outside would be a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses, particularly ones lacking speed at corner or safety.

Just Missed the Cut

DT Jer’Zhan Newton is listed at -280 (74%) to go in the first round. Daniel Jeremiah had him going to the Bills at Pick 28, while Peter Schrager had him outside his first round. He’s a candidate to go to the Buccaneers at Pick No. 26 or the Cardinals at Pick No. 27.

QB Michael Penix is a -130 (57%) favorite to go in the first round, but his draft slot over/under is listed at 32.5, making it difficult to find a home for him. He probably goes in the middle of Round 1 or early Round 2, as the late first round is lacking QB-needy teams.

QB Bo Nix has slightly longer odds (+160, 38%) to sneak into the first round of the NFL Draft.

WRs Ladd McConkey (+160, 38%) and Troy Franklin (+275, 27%) both have a reasonable chance to go in the first round, too. If either lands with the Bills or Chiefs, they should find themselves in the late first round of dynasty rookie drafts.

For more from PlayerProfile, check out this article – NFL Draft Rumors – Trades and Moves for All 32 NFL Teams (