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If you blame the situation for your favorite player’s failure, you never have to be wrong. You can push the blame onto the coach, or quarterback, or the helmet decal every time you miss. There is no such thing as a lock in the NFL draft. But if you’re going to make a bet on someone, you want to bet on prospects that produce like Rashod Bateman.

Is Rashod Bateman going to be Stefon Diggs, Justin Jefferson or A.J. Brown? Not likely in year one. But rookie picks demand positive assumptions because dynasty leagues are won when players hit their ceilings. If Bateman does, it will have an outsized effect on the way Baltimore runs its offence and how efficient of a passer Lamar Jackson can be.

We have to pay attention to more than just one narrative. 2020 was a perfect storm for Justin Jefferson. Overall talent, a position of need, an aging veteran teammate, a shifting offensive scheme, and a skeleton defense all made it possible for him to succeed. 

With both Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles playing the majority of snaps in eight games apiece, Darnell Mooney hit double-digit points in four of Trubisky’s games, while only hitting double digits in Foles’ games once. Meanwhile, Foles was attempting 1.4 more Deep Passes per game; they were just wildly inaccurate. 

Simply put, Justin Fields is the best QB Allen Robinson has ever played with. When Chicago drafted Fields as the No. 11 overall selection of the NFL Draft, Robinson’s value in dynasty and redraft leagues skyrocketed. With back-to-back seasons of 150-plus targets, he’s the unquestioned alpha in an ascending offense. He was already a top 12 WR in redraft, but is now safely in the top 6, with WR1 overall potential.]

Entering his third season, A.J. Brown should see one of the highest Target Shares of any WR in football. One of the most explosive and talented WRs in the game, he averaged 17.2 (No. 7 among qualified wide receivers) Fantasy Points per Game last season. This year, expect him to command double-digit targets every game. He is a locked-in second round pick in redraft and a first-rounder in dynasty startups.

A big takeaway from last season was not to rely on the production of rookie running backs during the first half of the season. Before his explosion in Week 12, Jonathan Taylor saw a huge drop in value and looked like he would not live up the hype. Believing in rookies walking into a new team and taking over the lead back role within a few weeks of the season starting is lofty thinking.

After watching D.J. Chark dominate in 2019 to the tune of 14.9 (No. 19 among qualified wide receivers) Fantasy Points per Game after going undrafted in most leagues, he was a target for me heading into 2020. After a rookie campaign with zero starts and under 200 yards, this sophomore breakout made it look like Chark had adjusted to the NFL. Add to this the stability around him within the Jaguars, he seemed like the perfect WR2 for fantasy teams.

Kadarius Toney adds a different and unique element to the Giants offense when considering the skillsets of the players around him. He has the sort of special teams ability the Giants have lacked since the days of Ron Dixon and Willie Ponder, and he’s athletic enough to be used as a decoy X-receiver at worst while he acclimates to the pro game. He is a converted QB, so he has plenty of room to grow, though these kinds of players aren’t usually first round NFL Draft picks. 

While Chris Evans lost the draft capital and landing spot battle to fellow Michigan teammate Nico Collins, his stock didn’t plummet as far as Tamorrion Terry’s. Though he went undrafted, the Seattle WR depth chart is wide open behind D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, who we advocated selling anyway. If anyone in this class has the potential to be this year’s UDFA gem, why not a guy who was as highly regarded a prospect as Terry was at one point?

Although Antonio Gibson didn’t get many carries in college, made it count when he did, with an insane 11.2 (99th-percentile among qualified running backs) College YPC average. He ran a 4.39 (98th-percentile) 40-yard Dash, which outputted a 99th-percentile Speed Score. He was hitting the holes, making guys miss left and right, and popping off for breakaway runs. That’s why I hopped on the train.

Investing in any position well past the age apex is usually a dart throw. Regression and injuries are common. It’s also helpful to have an alpha profile if you want Philip Rivers to feed you the ball. T.Y. Hilton is 5-9 and 183-pounds, whilst former Rivers teammate Mike Williams is 6-4 and 218-pounds. Opportunity doesn’t equate to fantasy points. A player can have the receiver room all to himself, but if he doesn’t have the skills necessary to be an alpha, it won’t pan out.

J.K. Dobbins’ high marks in Run Blocking Efficiency and Yards Created Per Touch tell us he took advantage of running lanes and created yards on his own. He and Gus Edwards will likely share touches in 2021, and hopefully, Dobbins earns more opportunities in the receiving game to add to his fantasy production. The Ravens running backs, particularly Dobbins, seem like a rare case where a player creates yards while also benefitting from their offensive line. 

In PPR leagues, Myles Gaskins’ receiving production boosted him to RB1 status, helping him average 16.4 (No. 10 among qualified running backs) Fantasy Points per Game. But unless there’s a major improvement in performance across their offensive line, he and the other Miami running backs may need to create yards on their own to remain productive. 

It’s lazy analysis to say that a quarterback upgrade will improve Allen Robinson’s fantasy performance. Only DeAndre Hopkins (310) has more targets over the past two seasons than Robinson’s 304 looks. Numerous opportunity and productivity metrics of Robinson’s are top-10 at his position. Volume is key in fantasy football, and his situation is not as bad as people make it seem. But what if he leaves Chicago next offseason?

Chris Godwin’s calculated market value for 2022 has him signing a contract with an average annual salary of $17.1 million. Mike Evans already took one pay cut to help the Buccaneers keep the team together. Would he be open to taking another pay cut for the team? Or will 2022 be the year where the Buccaneers have to decide who to keep between him and Godwin?

The good news is that any red zone opportunities Jamaal Williams receivers shouldn’t hinder D’Andre Swift’s ability to finish as a top-12 fantasy running back. Swift only saw a 35.1-percent (No. 35 among qualified running backs) Red Zone Snap Share and still finished with ten touchdowns, even though over 22.0-percent of Adrian Peterson’s carries came from inside the 20-yard line.

There is one area of concern for J.K. Dobbins. Baltimore only targeted their tailback 50 times in 2020 and 51 times in 2019. Outside of the Titans, no other team targeted their back less than 60 times. On top of the lack of targets, he was only targeted twice in the red zone (once in the playoffs) and his 16.7-percent Drop Rate was the highest of any back who saw 15 or more total targets.

When it comes to the top quarterback picks in fantasy football, Kirk Cousins is hardly ever in the conversation. Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have more fanfare, but who can bring the most bang for your buck? When combining the advanced stats and metrics with his production, supporting cast, consistency and current Underdog Fantasy ADP outside the top 120, Cousins is poised to be fantasy football’s best value quarterback this season.

Even though he’s not a running quarterback, he still received rushing opportunities last season and will continue to do so. His 0.6 (No. 23 among qualified quarterbacks) red zone carries per game ranked above rushing QBs like Daniel Jones and Russell Wilson. With opponents looking for Dalvin Cook out of the backfield, Cousins will find himself keeping the ball in the red zone at a similar rate this upcoming season if he isn’t passing it in first.