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Many will note Alvin Kamara is due for efficiency regression this offseason, but it’s easier to overlook how his end-of-season opportunity numbers were stunted a bit both due to under-utilization in the first quarter of the season and a concussion on the first drive of New Orleans’ Week 14 game that was killer for fantasy owners.

The Saints’180 RB targets from 2017 are right in line with a more-than-decade-long positional average, and since the Saints have an established baseline is in that range, a strong argument could be made that we see them eclipse that number in 2018. With Ingram out for the first four weeks, Kamara is in a great position to actually build on his 100-target rookie season.

It intuitively makes sense that rookie quarterbacks should be cheaper to acquire going into their sophomore seasons after struggling as rookies. In spite of these struggles, the majority of recent first round QBs have actually gained value heading into their second seasons.

In order to accrue dynasty value year-over-year, it would be wise to spend second and third round picks on highly drafted rookie quarterbacks.

There are positive indicators underwriting Gurley’s massive 2017 turnaround, but he also blew away the league’s RBs in areas where a repeat performance in 2018 might be difficult, and they open the question of whether a back with a history of knee issues is worth the first overall fantasy pick.

We know Sean McVay and the Rams will seek to exploit the edges presented in the modern game. That should help mitigate any efficiency regression, and while it might be maddening on a week-to-week basis to own any of the WRs, getting a piece of a highly-concentrated and productive offense is rarely a losing bet, so long as it isn’t too pricey to make.

There is no rookie running back more polarizing than Miami Dolphin Kalen Ballage. He is the perfect size and has the necessary skills for a dominant running back. Physically, he is a hybrid of David Johnson and Todd Gurley and could end up being the Dolphin’s de facto RB1.

If Ballage gets the opportunity, he could be the Alvin Kamara Corollary, proving that both an underrated college resume and athleticism profile can predict success two years in a row. If he can somehow harness all of gifts together, he will not only become fantasy relevant, but will ascend to being the most talked about running back in football in 2018.

In Chris Ballard’s second draft as the Colts’ GM, he built upon his year one strategy by hitting the offensive and defensive lines hard in the first few rounds, waiting until the fourth round to select offensive skill position players.

Nyheim Hines popped at the combine, coming in as the fastest RB in the entire class by logging a 4.38 40-yard dash time. That kind of breakneck speed manifested itself in four touchdown runs of 50-plus yards in 2017.

Now that the 2018 NFL Rookie Draft is officially over, it is time cue the Bee Gee’s Stayin’ Alive as we look at six running backs who have escaped a potential fantasy hit because their team failed to draft any immediate competition. Jordan Howard and Jay Ajayi may not be considered the sexiest running back picks, but they should get the job done at a discount price.

In the offseason, the San Francisco 49ers showed the world that they meant business. One of the biggest moves was acquiring running back free agent Jerick McKinnon and paying him big money. McKinnon is the most athletic running backs in the history of PlayerProfiler, with his best comparable player being Hall of Famer, LaDainian Tomlison.

Drafting DeShaun Watson in the second round may be tempting after how he played last year, but it’s a mistake. Better to pick up Alex Smith off the waiver wire or simply draft “Mr. Set It and Forget It” Phillip Rivers.

Tyrell Williams is only entering his fourth season. In his 2nd NFL season, he was able to eclipse 1000 receiving yards. Then, in what many would deem as a down year in 2017, he made up for counting stats with efficiency.

D.J. Moore is not only the best WR prospect of his class, he is one of the best of the past decade and a half. His insane combination of final year market share, breakout age, and NFL Draft Scout ranking gives him a fantastic projection in my WR prospect model.

If DJ Moore is off the board, Courtland Sutton is the logical next choice. Sutton is the signature split end/X-receiver prototype of this draft class and is one only a handful of first-round graded prospects in a weak wide receiver class. His college dominance and size-adjusted athleticism suggest his upside is almost uncapped.

Advanced stats and metrics show that Josh Allen should not be considered in the first round of the NFL Draft. Meanwhile, an analytics-based prospect evaluation process pinpoints Harold Landry as a top value on draft day.

Despite Ozzie Newsome’s affinity for Alabama players, the Ravens should pass on Calvin Ridley and select D.J. Moore. Despite playing with eight different quarterbacks in college, Moore still achieved absurd production, finishing his final college season with a 53.3-percent (97th-percentile) College Dominator Rating.

With the 2018 NFL Draft around the corner, it is time to look at a running back that isn’t even on the radar. He is New Mexico State’s Larry Rose III. He’s the sneakiest of all sleepers because he has the pedigree, the production, and the athleticism. At his Pro Day, he ran a 4.47 40-Yard Dash which puts him in the 86th-percentile. His 121.4 Burst Score places him in the 67th-percentile.

For his entire football career, Rose III has taken the road less travelled. He might be the most misunderstood and unappreciated running back coming into this draft. His story needs to be known and his name needs to be recognized. I had the pleasure and privilege to interview Larry Rose III. Not only is he a great running back, but he is also an impressive human being.