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Sony Michel and Ronald Jones can miss expectations in year 1.

Sam Darnold feels like a bust QB in waiting. Ian Thomas is the rookie tight end to own.

While lightly used, seeing only 39 targets, O.J. Howard was one of the most efficient playmakers of all tight ends. He led all tight ends in Air Yards, Target Premium, Yards Per Target, and Fantasy Points per route among others.

Evan Engram’s performance as a rookie was one of the few bright spots of the New York Giants 2017 season. Since the dawn of the 21st century, only one rookie tight end has had more receptions and receiving yards than Engram.

Despite an impressive athletic profile, DeVante Parker has yet to fully deliver on the promise that made him a first round pick by the Dolphins in the 2015 NFL Draft and a top-five rookie pick in subsequent dynasty drafts.

Parker’s third NFL season was marred by injuries, both to himself and the carousel of quarterbacks throwing footballs in his general vicinity, but a closer look at his 2017 performance reveals that the breakout season everyone’s been waiting for actually happened, albeit in abbreviated form.

Kelvin Benjamin is being discounted at his current ninth-round ADP because he will command targets from A.J. McCarron or Josh Allen. Suspect quarterback play aside, he will receive the lion’s share of the Bills’ red zone targets in 2018.

The last time Allen Hurns had 15 end zone targets, he scored 10 touchdowns in 2015. He has shown a capability of being productive in the end zone, and now he takes over one of the largest end zone opportunity shares in the NFL.

Jamison Crowder, Josh Doctson, Jordan Reed, and Washington skill position players should benefit from improved circumstances.

How Davante Adams can be a top-3 fantasy receiver, but Doug Baldwin is being overdrafted.

Despite a mere 14-percent target share last season, the Chiefs paid Sammy Watkins like a number one receiver in the NFL. In a strong free agent class, Watkins signed a 3-year contract for $48 million dollars, with $30 million guaranteed. Watkins is now the fourth highest paid receiver in the NFL based on average annual salary.

Since 2014, Demaryius Thomas has seen his targets decline each season and in 2016 Emmanuel Sanders recorded only seven fewer targets than Thomas. The following year Sanders and Thomas were neck-in-neck for targets with 42 and 44 respectively before Sanders sustained a Week 5 ankle injury that derailed his season. With Thomas’ ADP climbing to 4.12, Sanders provides greater value with ADP of 7.11.

Why drafting Travis Kelce and Rob Gronkowksi back-to-back in the Scott Fish Bowl is a diabolically genius draft tactic.

Dak Prescott’s weapons and projected game script are problematic. Kyle Rudolph, Greg Olsen, and Delanie Walker should enjoy resurgences this season.

In the last five years, only six of the 15 quarterbacks drafted top-3 at the position actually finished top-3. The average finish was instead QB8. During Watson’s 6-game streak, he threw 18 touchdowns on just over 200 attempts, a touchdown for every 11 throws. Russell Wilson, in last year’s QB1 season, threw one TD every 16 attempts.

While the Saints did lean more run-heavy than they have in the past, Brees will continue to enjoy the benefits of having Alvin Kamara as a receiving option. The team has also added Cameron Meredith and Tre’Quan Smith, both exciting young talents, but Brees doesn’t need to be better in 2018 to exceed expectations. All he needs is for the team’s touchdowns to fall more in line with historical production.

An adequate passer and an exceptional runner is a good combination for fantasy football (a la Cam Newton, Michael Vick). There is no way the fantasy ceiling for either Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen approaches that of Lamar Jackson, so getting him after both traditional pocket passers is a steal.

Tre’Quan Smith checks a lot of boxes, finishing above the 60th-percentile in key metrics from College Dominator Rating to Breakout Age to Speed Score. Looking the part of a proper NFL flanker, if Smith went to Alabama, he would have conceivably been selected in the first round of the NFL Draft.

Alvin Kamara should be a top-5 pick in fantasy football leagues. Do yourself a favor and draft three quarterbacks in the Scott Fish Bowl.

A.J. Green, T.Y. Hilton, and Stefon Diggs are not alike but they are all buys this season.