David Moore flashed his penchant for the big play in beating the Carolina secondary to the tune of 4-103-1, his best fantasy football performance of the season. Considering Russell Wilson sports a 126.5 quarterback rating when targeting Moore, it’s not surprising he commands a 32.1-percent end zone target share and has a nose for scoring. Based on his current role in Seattle’s offense, and on his advanced stats, metrics and analytics profile, Moore fits the bill of priority late-season waiver wire add.
David Moore is a Dangerous Weapon
David Moore’s fifth touchdown of the season came on a 54-yard bomb from Russell Wilson which Moore did an outstanding job of timing. He kept his eye on the ball while beating Carolina cornerback Corn Elder down the left sideline, catching the ball in stride for the score. He averages a TD every 4.4 receptions. While that ridiculous pace is unsustainable, it’s a testament to Moore’s ability and Wilson’s trust in him. His five touchdowns rank No. 2 on the team behind Tyler Lockett’s eight.
GOT 'EM! ?
?: FOX #Seahawks pic.twitter.com/eH5TKa8Vsb
— NFL (@NFL) November 25, 2018
A second-year pro and seventh-round pick out of Division II East Central Oklahoma, Moore couples field-stretching speed with ultra-efficiency. He ranks No. 3 in yards per reception (18.8) and No. 2 in average target distance (17.9). Those marks improve upon his 15.4 college YPR, and reinforce his College Dominator Rating in the 78th-percentile. Moore’s Speed Score ranks in the 89th-percentile and, at 6-1, 219-pounds, means he runs a faster 40-yard dash (4.48) than his large frame suggests.
He checks all the boxes of a physical freak with a high football IQ, evidenced by his 127.7 (95th-percentile) SPARQ-x score. A proven valuable asset in fantasy football, Moore ranks No. 25 among receivers in PPR scoring from Weeks 5-12.
Justin Jackson is the New Austin Ekeler
Meet Justin Jackson, the handcuff to the handcuff in the Chargers backfield. While that might not sound viable for fantasy football, his role grows tenfold with Melvin Gordon injured. Reports peg the star running back out for the foreseeable future with an MCL sprain suffered against the Cardinals. Meanwhile, Austin Ekeler proved time and again that the Chargers can support two fantasy-relevant running backs. Ekeler sits at RB22 in PPR formats after Week 12 action, and has two games in excess of 20 fantasy points.
Now it’s Jackson’s turn. The Chargers offense ranks No. 7 in rushing and they run the ball on 56.5-percent of their plays. Jackson and Ekeler also benefit from running behind an offensive line that ranks No. 7 in run blocking through Week 11. All these factors, combined with Jackson’s advanced stats, metrics and analytics profile, set him up for success in Gordon’s absence. He showed that in limited action against Arizona, carrying the ball seven times for 57 yards and an efficient 8.1 YPC. At 6-0, 193-pounds the rookie seventh-rounder from Northwestern is taller and leaner than Ekeler. While neither back is built for the lead role, Ekeler’s experience and bigger body mass give him the advantage. But Jackson’s college resume includes four seasons of more than 1,000 yards rushing while averaging 4.7 YPC, proving he’s capable of a large workload.
Where Justin Jackson can shine, though, is through big plays and in the passing game. His 12.8-percent college target share ranks in the 86th-percentile, and he had at least 20 receptions in each of his four seasons at Northwestern. Considering Austin Ekeler saw 39 targets (3.5 per game) as Melvin Gordon‘s backup, Jackson should be in line for more targets. Furthermore, his explosiveness makes him a home run threat each time he touches the ball, evidenced by a 126.5 Burst Score, which ranks in the 86th-percentile.
The Chargers get a dream schedule for the first two weeks of the fantasy playoffs, hosting Cincinnati in Week 14 and travelling to Kansas City in Week 15. The Chiefs allow the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing teams’ RBs (33.1), while the Bengals allow 32.3.
Antonio Callaway Suddenly Surging
Antonio Callaway hasn’t enjoyed the success of rookie counterparts Calvin Ridley and D.J. Moore. He’s struggled with drops – his seven are the third-most in the league – and inconsistency. His 50.8-percent catch rate and -16.7 Premium Production (No. 73) tell the story of a first-year pro struggling to make the transition. But he benefits from the latest rendition of the Browns offense under interim head coach Greg Williams.
Gone are the days of Cleveland throwing a million dinky passes to Jarvis Landry. He hasn’t seen more than seven targets in a game since Williams took over. Callaway, on the other hand, has seen a more consistent target share, earning 12 total looks over his past three games. That comes with a caveat: Callaway is playing fewer snaps and running fewer routes under Williams. In Week 12 he played 59-percent of the snaps and ran 17 routes. For comparison, he ran a season-high 47 routes while playing 100-percent of the snaps in Week 6.
Callaway’s 62 receiving yards against the Bengals mark his second-most of the season, and he also scored his third TD. His two red zone looks – he has six overall – promise more scoring chances around the corner. The fourth-round pick out of Florida also boasts the burning speed necessary to beat defenders downfield. Callaway runs a blistering 4.41 (91st-percentile) 40-yard dash. He’s had five plays of more than 20 yards, including a 47-yard TD grab in Week 2, and his average target distance (15.1) ranks No. 14.
With Cleveland attempting 39.2 pass plays per game, Callaway is in line for a solid stretch run if he can gain an increased target and snap share. He also must eliminate his issue with drops. At his current pace he’s a playable WR3 in deeper leagues, but his arrow trends upward.