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On the surface, Antonio Gibson looks like a risky play this week. While the Rams defense has had strong showings, they concede bunches of fantasy points to RBs. They currently rank No. 28 in Defensive Rushing DVOA after Ezekiel Elliott, Miles Sanders, and Devin Singletary all topped 120 scrimmage yards against them. Given his usage, Gibson is a solid salary-saving RB option on this tightly-priced slate.

The Dolphins rank No. 28 and No. 31 in Defensive Passing and Rushing DVOA respectively, and have allowed Chris Carson and James Robinson to finish as top-5 PPR RBs over the last two weeks. They have also allowed the ninth-most adjusted line yards according to Football Outsiders, meaning Jerick McKinnon won’t be getting hit behind the line of scrimmage like he was all last game. Even if Raheem Mostert dresses for this game, McKinnon is set up for elite RB1 production.

Damien Harris should be the free chalk play of the week. Monitor his ownership and pivot if it gets too high, but it is rare to see a back priced at only $4,500 when he’s projected for about half his team’s opportunities. He looked awesome on Monday Night Football against the Chiefs and now gets a plus Game Script matchup against the Broncos. Belichick’s RB shenanigans rightfully cause concern, but the upside with Harris is too tantalizing.

Myles Gaskin fell back to earth a bit in Week 4 after looking like a stud in Week 3’s game against Jacksonville. Part of his performance can be attributed to the excellent middle linebacker coverage in Seattle that often limits the receiving upside of RBs and TEs that face them. Still, Gaskin saw 10 of the 16 RB carries and four of eight targets at the position. With excellent overall usage at only $5,500, Gaskin is a great contrarian play in cash or GPP in another tough matchup against the 49ers.

Deshaun Watson has been super efficient aggressively throwing the ball down the field this year. He has recorded 664 (No. 8 among qualified quarterbacks) Completed Air Yards, 8.4 (No. 7) Yards per Attempt, and 8.5 (No. 10) Air Yards per Attempt with a 108.8 (No. 8) True Passer Rating. Good things happen when Watson throws to Will Fuller. In a game projected to shoot out with a 54-point total, expect multiple splash plays from these two.

Joe Burrow’s passing volume makes him appealing week in and week out for daily fantasy. While some will be scared off going against Baltimore, the pass volume and expected Game Script give Burrow a high floor. We’re targeting Tee Higgins this week mainly due to price. He’s $4900 on DraftKings despite taking over WR2 responsibilities. He’s commanded over 100 Air Yards in each of the last two weeks. That downfield target role makes him more valuable in tournament settings as we look to capitalize on big plays.

Justin Jefferson played on less than 80-percent of Minnesota’s snaps through two weeks, but has topped that number in both of the following weeks. The only argument against him is his offense. The Vikings are known as a run-first team, but that choice might not be on the table for them going forward. They allow their opponents to average 8.4 yards per attempt to opposing passers. If they’re going to keep getting into shootouts, Jefferson has WR2 upside every week.

Kenyan Drake is an inferior running back to Chase Edmonds and can only operate as the top back in Arizona for so long before that sends him to the bench. Edmonds has him bested in Breakaway Run Rate, Production Premium, Expected Points Added, and Yards per Route Run among other metrics. He’s the better pass-catcher, which makes Drake a grinder like Damien Harris or Adrian Peterson.

Justin Jefferson has been productive and is clearly locked into the No. 2 wide receiver role in Minnesota. Over four games, he ranks No. 8 among qualified wide receivers with 348 receiving yards and 126 Yards After Catch. From an efficiency standpoint, he has been unreal. He has a whopping 3.70 (No. 1) Yards per Route Run, a 1.95 (No. 28) Target Separation mark, earns 17.4 (No. 1) Yards per Target, and has committed zero (No. 81) drops. With an impressive 21.8 (No. 3) Yards per Reception, the rookie delivers chain-moving chunk plays.

Rookie Darnell Mooney has out-snapped Anthony Miller in three consecutive weeks. In Week 3, they each ran 35 routes and saw five targets. In Week 4, Mooney ran more routes and saw more targets. A possible third-year breakout candidate, Miller’s dynasty value has been trending the wrong way to start 2020. The production needs to live up to the potential sooner than later, or it will be last call for Miller Time.

Through three games, Jonnu Smith has smashed. He has recorded 13 (No. 13 among qualified tight ends) receptions for 181 (No. 9) receiving yards and averages 16.4 (No. 3) Fantasy Points per Game. Smith has drawn 20 (No. 12) targets, a 20.6-percent (No. 5) Target Share, 135 (No. 17) Air Yards (No. 17), and a 17.2-percent (No. 12) Air Yards Share. Even with the low Air Yards total, Smith has racked up 100 (No. 6) Yards After Catch.

Hunter Henry washed away the narrative and concern surrounding a new quarterback other than Philip Rivers targeting the tight end position. Amongst tight ends, Henry has earned a 19.5-percent (No. 9) Target Share with 225 (No. 8) Air Yards and a 20.1-percent (No. 8) Air Yards Share. Henry has averaged 10.6 (No. 15) Fantasy Points per Game without even scoring a touchdown yet. He’s a must-start player and should be targeted aggressively in trades.

PlayerProfiler subscribers already know all about Joshua Kelley’s upside. He’s healthy Sony Michel. His usage was throttled back in favor of Austin Ekeler over these last few weeks, but Ekeler is slated to miss 4-6 weeks with a Grade 2 hamstring strain. The split between Kelley and Justin Jackson is yet to be seen, but both players warrant a bid going into the Week 5 waiver run.

Julio Jones is dealing with lingering hamstring issues, paving the way for more opportunity for Olamide Zaccheaus, who profiles as a proficient slot receiver best comparable to Jamison Crowder. His 34.1-percent (94th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Target Share and 19.1 (88th-percentile) Breakout Age suggest that this undrafted free agent belongs on NFL rosters and fantasy teams alike.

Give an athletic phenom 16 targets in the perfect Game Script, and that’s the Amari Cooper ceiling scenario. Cooper racked up 134 yards and a score on 12 catches in a game where Dak Prescott had over 500 passing yards. The Cowboys can’t stop anyone, and it makes for unreal passing volume. Cooper is a top-5 play going forward, especially as Michael Gallup fades further into the ether. 

Joe Mixon ran well against the poor Jaguars defense, with a long burst of 34 yards. The offensive line woes for the Bengals have been highly publicized, but Joe Burrow’s continued improvement week over week has forced defenses to spread out against the balanced attack. Mixon will attempt to continue his success against… the Baltimore Ravens. He makes for a choice tournament play with a precocious Joe Burrow ready to do battle with a Ravens team that’s shown unevenness in games they trail.

A big question mark for Monday Night, Davante Adams practiced in limited fashion on Saturday. In addition to the Allen Lazard injury, this may leave quarterback Aaron Rodgers with a cast of wideouts led by Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Robert Tonyan anyone? He’s caught a touchdown each of the last two weeks, garnering five targets for five receptions including the TD in Adams’ absence versus the Saints. It appears he’s earned some semblance of Rodgers’ trust, which could be huge come Monday Night.

Plenty of teams are suffering multiple injuries, a few nearly decimated at one position. The Eagles, for example, continue to play thin at wide receiver and the injury to Dallas Goedert exacerbates the situation, given he’s out multiple weeks. Greg Ward needs to be in lineups this Sunday, if it wasn’t already obvious. However, don’t forget about Philadelphia’s two rookie wide receivers, John Hightower and Quez Watkins, the latter of which is set to return from I.R.

Without the top two corners in New Orleans, this matchup with the Lions should be a shootout. That will benefit Tre’Quan Smith the most as the de facto alpha receiving option for New Orleans. Detroit ranks No. 27 in Defensive DVOA, so the Saints will have ease moving the ball even with Drew Brees’ deteriorating arm. This matchup is tied for the second-highest total on the slate at 54.5 points, so stacking this game looks viable for tournaments given these affordable prices.

Adam Trautman should slide right into Jared Cook’s role as a big-bodied move tight end having already played out of the slot on 35.9-percent of his snaps this season. He clearly has the talent and will now get the opportunity in an offense commanded by the most accurate QB of all time with a creative offensive play-caller. The game environment sets up well for this min-priced TE and he offers some much-needed salary relief for cash game lineups.