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Memphis is the new Running Back U. Kenny Gainwell was not a dominant college prospect, but you have to appreciate a 6.3 (79th-percentile among qualified running backs) College YPC average and you have to LOVE a 51-reception season being on the resume.

Nico Collins is 6-4 and 215-pounds. This is elite size and carries starting outside alpha-level upside potential with it. He outproduced Donovan Peoples-Jones for two of their three college seasons together, and was held back by the poor Michigan offense. He adds an 80th-percentile Breakout Age and 92nd-percentile College YPR average. No other players have this kind of upside at this point in the draft.

If I were to take a lesson away from the process of drafting Will Fuller, it would be to target players in drafts where the ADP skews closer towards the bottom percentile outcome of a player. Especially when the ADP is driven down by narratives not based on numbers. Fuller’s injury proneness was and continues to be overrated in fantasy. Further, his Weekly Volatility had a strong chance of changing with De’Andre Hopkins no longer in Texas. When drafting outside of round three, it is beneficial to target the players with the highest ceilings and ignore their floors.

Where things went wrong was not in projecting Miles Sanders’ usage and skill, but in projecting the effectiveness of the Eagles offense. Philadelphia’s inability to generate offense as a result of Carson Wentz’s regression as a passer, and an oft-injured offensive, line stifled any hopes of Sanders reaching his RB1 ceiling. Unable to generate consistent offense, the team zapped Sanders’ upside. Facing negative Game Scripts, he scored only six (No. 25 among qualified running backs) Total Touchdowns all season.

After four seasons with the Titans, Corey Davis exploded in 2020 partly due to his high efficiency. Not surprising since we mentioned Ryan Tannehill as one of the efficiency outliers at the quarterback position. Davis interestingly displayed great per-target efficiency, yet scored five (No. 35 among qualified wide receivers) Total Touchdowns at a 7.7-percent Touchdown Rate. It’s difficult to imagine a scenario where the Jets offense runs as efficiently as Tennessee’s.

Jerry Jeudy earned a decent amount of opportunities, but the brutal efficiency metrics stood out; among them a -16.5 (No. 82) Production Premium, 7.6 (No. 76) Yards Per Target and 1.38 (No. 102) Fantasy Points Per Target. It’s a big IF, but if Drew Lock improves and we have a healthy Courtland Sutton, then that should help Jeudy in 2021. However, it’s difficult to imagine the opportunities increasing, so hopefully he’s more efficient. Attempt to buy low in dynasty leagues. 

Cam Akers is climbing the dynasty rankings fast. Aaron Jones was a league winner.

Can Patrick Mahomes sustain excellence despite an underwhelming front office? Building championship dynasty rosters and why you need to trust the age apex in fantasy football.

Devonta Smith ranks highly in all of the Breakout Finder metrics, the highest Teammate Score in the BOF database being the highlight, and he protects to be a top-10 NFL Draft pick. A Heisman-winning WR is the kind of player that deserves to be a first round rookie pick in any format.

Tutu Atwell is a straight dog as a receiver with an 18.9 (92nd-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Breakout Age and 35.1-percent (96th-percentile) College Target Share to pair with elite speed and athleticism. He is undersized at 5-9 and 165-pounds, but translates into a dangerous slot weapon in the NFL.

Javonte Williams has created a Big-3, leaving Jermar Jefferson behind. Is Jonathan Taylor the dynasty RB1 right now?

CeeDee Lamb is a screaming buy-high right now. Travis Kelce and D.K. Metcalf are uncomfortable sell high candidates.

Chris Evans’ profile hits many important metrics which can translate to the NFL. This suggests that if he goes in the middle rounds of the NFL Draft, he will start his career as a backup but could be a productive RB2 if he can ever become the starter on his team. He has shown the ability to effectively rush and catch passes, but he has never put it all together at the same time. If he can do it at the next level, he’ll become a quality fantasy asset.

The 6-4, 215-pound Nico Collins has the size to be a starting outside receiver in the pros. In addition, this size means he is likely to have an upper-percentile Speed Score if his 40-yard Dash time is even average. He sports a 19.7 (92nd-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College YPR and a 19.5 (80th-percentile) Breakout Age. If he can pair that size with great athleticism, he’ll have the most upside of any late-round rookie receiver in this class.

Cleveland Browns cornerback Denzel Ward drew 80 (No. 80 among qualified cornerbacks) targets in the 2020 season. Bengals cornerback LeShaun Sims, a lesser-known player than Ward, drew just 78 (No. 78) looks in 13 games. Sims was targeted on a similar scale to Ward. Therefore, these players are close in production, right? Why, hello there Mr. Strawman. Coverage Rating points out that this could not be further from the truth.

The Lions traded away Darius Slay in the hopes of sliding Jeff Okudah seamlessly into his spot in the defensive backfield. This hasn’t worked so far. Okudah only played nine games as a rookie. But he was targeted at a 24.8-percent (No. 6) rate. Passers completed 74.2-percent of their passes looking his way. The next pass he breaks up will be his first as a pro. Only the aforementioned LeShaun Sims posted a lower Coverage Rating than Okudah’s -29.7 showing.

The Panthers needs help all over the place, but they take a shot on a franchise QB early in the draft. The team misses out on the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes and opt for Zach Wilson, whose rocket arm can unlock their offense after a low-ceiling 2020 campaign from Teddy Bridgewater.

The Saints need to re-tool on offense in the coming years whether Drew Brees retires or not. Taking Kadarius Toney would give them another receiving option after Tre’Quan Smith just refused to break out, and give whoever quarterbacks the team in 2021 a viable triple option of pass catchers in Toney, Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara. Not forgetting Adam Trautman, of course.

If it seemed like Aaron Rodgers threw a passing touchdown on every drive, well, he almost did. Rodgers finished 2020 with 48 (No. 1 among qualified quarterbacks) Passing Touchdowns on 34.2 (No. 27) Team Pass Plays Per Game. Even Green Bay’s 2.00 (two plays per minute) Pace of Play ranked dead last in the NFL. All of this screams “efficiency outlier.”

Given that he falls into the low-efficiency outlier category, it’s not surprising that Baker Mayfield “boasted” a middling 0.45 (No. 18) Fantasy Points Per Dropback average and a -7.5 (No. 23) Production Premium. If the dominant running game remains, which seems likely, he could improve in the efficiency metrics with the play-action game. With projected low passing volume, he’ll need to rely on efficiency to produce anything better than middling or back-end QB2 numbers.