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Quarterbacks with high Accuracy Ratings are a godsend to pass-catchers; these players will see a high dose of targets that they can actually do something with. A case in point is reigning league MVP Aaron Rodgers, who finished the 2020 campaign with a 7.9 (No. 3 among qualified quarterbacks) Accuracy Rating and led the league in delivering an 81.0-percent Catchable Pass Rate.

We should have high hopes for Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in 2021. He posted a 7.9 Accuracy Rating a year ago, the same as Aaron Rodgers and Teddy Bridgewater. He also delivered a Catchable Pass Rate of 80.3-percent in 2020. Only Rodgers and Drew Brees were better. Yet he managed a dismal 13.8 (No. 28) Fantasy Points per Game. Can we attach some blame to the players around him? With a -7.17 (No. 26) Supporting Cast Efficiency rating, you bet we can.

NFL teams do not mortgage the future for one-year wonders like Zach Wilson, or question mark athletes like Mac Jones. Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence have been the best prospects in this class since they were 16 years old, this hasn’t changed. Kyle Shanahan traded up to No. 3 for his guy and QB Collective standout.

The son of former Saints great Joe Horn is looked at as the top cornerback in the draft by many. The next Island Cornerback; think Jalen Ramsey, Richard Sherman, Darrelle Revis – Jaycee Horn is for real, and Bill Belichick gets a gift at No. 15 here, allowing him to team up with or replace Stephon Gilmore.

What is Carson Wentz’ value in dynasty right now? Kenny Golladay is heading to New York!

Daniel Jones is not dead yet! Joe Mixon is getting some much needed help on the offensive line.

Despite a career-best 13.7 (No. 32 among qualified wide receivers) Fantasy Points per Game average and top-notch efficiency, Davis has failed to break out in his career according to the Breakout Finder. He missed the 200-point PPR mark by less than nine points, and fell short of the 1,000 yard receiving mark by 16 yards. Truly heartbreaking. Will he pull a Devante Parker-like fifth-year breakout? Or will “Corpse” Davis return to the catacombs?

Despite an expected increase in his 92 (No. 42) Targets from 2020, Davis’ efficiency will be tough to replicate without Ryan Tannehill’s 121.1 (No. 2) True Passer Rating. A Breakout Rating below 20.0 shows that banking on him to finally break out in Year 5 is irrational. He’s a JAG receiver and isn’t helping people win games. He’s a perfect throw-in in trades to acquire your target.

Anthony Schwartz and Dyami Brown could go in round 1. Mac Jones is still criminally underrated

Where did Jaylen Waddle go? Travis Etienne didn’t run and hide but Najee Harris did

Though Amari Rodgers didn’t pop athletically at his pro day, falling to 3.08 from 2.04 between Underworld vs. RosterWatch mocks is likely an overcorrection for a player with Lynn Bowden and Deebo Samuel among his Best Comparable Players. After letting Nico Collins slip to the Underworld at 4.10 last time, Byron Lambert and the RosterWatch crew ensured his services by taking him at the 3.11 and making us feel All Mixed Up.

Before any athletic testing is even taken into account, Javian Hawkins checked in with a top 10 Breakout Rating among this year’s rookie backs. Even if he falls a bit in the app’s next update once the pro day numbers are accounted for, he’s the kind of player that can overcome Day 3 draft capital and make an impact as a satellite back if he lands on the right team.

We can’t discuss efficiency outliers at tight end without talking about Robert Tonyan, otherwise known as Big Bob Tonyan: the Touchdown Scoring Machine. His 2020 screamed efficiency with unsustainable production. If other fantasy managers value him highly, trade him away after his uber-efficient and productive 2020 season.

After a putrid 2020 season, what do we do with veteran Zach Ertz? He battled an ankle injury and lacked production even with a healthy Target Share. Since his stock has plummeted, he’s more of a buy-low than a sell, but don’t acquire him with the expectation of a top-5 season. If he lands in a tight-end friendly offense, he could still produce like a top-10 tight end given the landscape.

There’s a lot of QB talent in the NFL already, more is on the way and there’s only so much room at the top of the heap. That’s why Trevor Lawrence, as great as he will undoubtedly become, has a low-end QB1 dynasty ranking. And while, yes, a low-end QB1 is an excellent NFL player, what does that get us in fantasy over a middling signal caller?

I’m not seeing how choosing a QB at 1.01 – even if it’s Lawrence – does not require a moment’s thought. Staying on 1.01 Island and choosing Lawrence sets you up with a good QB for a long time, but means foregoing similar gains that might be out there at other positions – e.g., Travis Etienne, Najee Harris, Javonte Williams, Ja’Marr Chase and Kyle Pitts.

Chase Edmonds is the quintessential satellite back that earned a ton of targets and receiving production, yet barely earned many opportunities. He finished with a 37.6-percent (No. 48 among qualified running backs) Opportunity Share, 68 (No. 6) Targets, and 165.0 (No. 25) Weighted Opportunities. A reminder that Weighted Opportunities increases the value of targets, which suits a player like Edmonds.

Even though he finished with 12 (No. 4) Total Touchdowns and 15.4 (No. 12) Fantasy Points per Game, Josh Jacobs relied on opportunities in 2020. He lacked efficiency with a -13.6 (No. 61) Production Premium and averaged 4.3 (No. 53) Yards Per Touch, but had a 27.5-percent (No. 12) Juke Rate. High volume and more opportunities can lead to more Evaded Tackles and Yards Created while helping bolster the Juke Rate. 

Looking ahead to 2021, there are players for whom a larger workload could make them bargains in redraft given their abilities to create their own yards. They figure prominently in the Yards Created per Touch standings. Current signs point to them having more touches in the new season. Notable players like J.K. Dobbins, whose 2.18 (No. 3 among qualified running backs) Yards Created per Touch trailed only Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb.

Kenyan Drake eked his way to the RB24 in Fantasy Points per Game last season, thanks largely to his workload. He logged 192.1 (No. 15) Weighted Opportunities, but averaged 0.66 (No. 55) Yards Created per Touch. This is the eighth-lowest of the 51 running backs to earn at least 100.0 Weighted Opportunities. He is unlikely to command quite as big a workload on the Las Vegas Raiders, barring an injury to Josh Jacobs.