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As we approach the final stretch of the season, I only want to invest in players that I am confident in their ability to retain fantasy relevancy into next season. Dameon Pierce is top-10 in Opportunity Share (73.6-percent) and Dominator Rating (29.9-percent) with room to grow his role in the receiving game (No. 22 in targets).

We approached our Sleeper play via correlation and game-stacking in a Jaguars vs. Chiefs contest that was projected by Vegas to be the highest-scoring game of Week 10. While the offenses did not live up to that hype, we picked out the alphas and nearly smashed the three-legger. Christian Kirk was the Jacksonville No. 1 again. He put up a season-high nine receptions on 12 targets for 105 yards, including two touchdowns. On the other side, Travis Kelce led the Chiefs in receiving. Kelce had six receptions on seven targets for 81 yards and the receiving touchdown we needed. However, despite throwing for 331 yards on 35 pass attempts, Mahomes only needed 26 completions to get there. This ruined a 5x profit parlay cash for us by just one pass. Sheesh.

Fading a wide receiver with a 25.6-percent (No. 19) Target Share and 603 (No. 16) receiving yards is a gamble, but Michael Pittman has not finished as a top-30 WR since Week 6. This week Nico Collins gets the Washington Commanders, who allow the second-highest Average Target Distance and fourth-most Air Yards.

It should come as no real surprise that, when teams are losing, they might be incentivized to speed up their processes. This was evident in Week 10. The five teams that showed the biggest increase in plays per minute last week were the Dallas Cowboys, Cleveland Browns, Philadelphia Eagles, Las Vegas Raiders, and the Atlanta Falcons. All five teams lost in Week 10.

The Titans coaching staff are experts in ruining a party. They killed Tennessee’s Tanne-thrill ride when they thought A.J. Brown could be replaced by Treylon Burks. Tannehill’s 13 (No. 25) fantasy points per game are the lowest mark he’s seen since his 2012 rookie season. The arm talent is still there. He’s delivering a 7.8 (No. 13) Accuracy Rating and a 79.7-percent (No. 11) Catchable Pass Rate. Running under 24 pass plays per game, the veteran has only eclipsed 200 yards in three of his seven games this season. In those each of those games, he’s produced at least 19 fantasy points. Green Bay has kept anemic passing offenses at bay and can’t stop the run. This is the perfect formula for a disappointing low-end QB2 performance from Tannehill. Tannehill has big game upside, and he’s a boom-or-bust start in deeper 2QB/Superflex leagues.

After melting faces and averaging over 23 fantasy points per game in weeks seven, and eight, D.J. Moore has crashed down to earth unable to eclipse seven fantasy points per game the past two weeks. The return of Baker Mayfield under center for the Panthers only adds to the gloom and doom of D.J. Moore’s fantasy prospects. Once a chalky play on the slate, Moore is perhaps the most intriguing contrarian play of the week against a Ravens secondary that has been exploitable at times this season. I would consider some tournament exposure.

Mack Hollins took on a greater role in the Raiders offense last week with Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller placed on injured reserve. Hollins saw 140 Air Yards and six targets. However he only scored 3.8 fantasy points. The average depth of target remains high a 15.4 yards (no. 5). However, the increase in targets adds a bit more sturdiness to his fantasy floor. He is a recommended play in all formats.

The Lions entered Week 10 allowing the fourth-most QB rushing fantasy points. Justin Fields just ran all over them for 147 yards while three other QBs have passed 40 rushing yards against them. Allowing less than 24 points in a game just once this season, Detroit is a porous defense through the air and on the ground. Expect Daniel Jones to feast as a dual-threat this week.

While Higbee could see an uptick in targets this week, he faces a Saints defense that has been effective against TEs. New Orleans has not allowed more than 50 yards to an opposing TE group since Week 5. Isaiah Likely is the only TE to score a touchdown against Demario Davis and company this season.

The 49ers worked Elijah Mitchell in more substantially this week. He played a third of the snaps, splitting goal-line work and carries evenly. McCaffrey maintained dominance of the passing work. If this situation holds, it places McCaffrey more in line with early-season Austin Ekeler and peak Alvin Kamara rather than the potential 30-point-per-week supernova we thought we had last week. That being said, I would still be trading for McCaffrey. Trading early down volume for increased team scoring opportunities is a net positive from his time in Carolina for my money. He maintains an elite floor via the pass-game, and his ceiling in negative script or with a Mitchell injury is RB1 in a tier of his own.

The problem is the Falcons would rather not throw the ball ever to anyone. They take forever to snap the ball (No. 30 in Pace of Play), and when do eventually snap it, they run it (No. 3 in Team Run Plays per Game, No. 30 in Pass Attempts). This has been the case even when Cordarrelle Patterson is on the sidelines. On the season, they’ve chosen to hand to the ball to plodding backup rookie back Tyler Allgeier twice as many times as they’ve thrown to Pitts.

In an NFL week filled with fantasy joy (Justin Jefferson is a KING) and fantasy tragedy (Cooper Kupp), Watson put his stamp on the week and potentially the season moving forward. This is why we constantly grind the waiver wire. Change happens in this league, and it happens quickly. All it takes is one Sunday, and the outlook for a player can rise and fall more sharply than in any other sport. How do Rachaad White managers feel on Monday morning? How heavy of a weight was lifted off the backs of Jonathan Taylor dynasty managers? Meanwhile, Kupp managers are entirely gutted.