Fantasy football from a Dynasty lens consists of evaluating players, talent, and situations from a multi-year perspective. With managers putting together teams via trades, waivers, and rookie drafts in Dynasty offseasons, maximizing player windows becomes critical. The key to maximizing players’ production windows is understanding age apexes.
An age apex is the age range in which a player’s fantasy production is maximized. Identifying these ranges gives fantasy managers an idea of what to expect from their top players. So sit back, relax, and join me as I delve into the data (Point-per-Reception format) behind age apexes for wide receivers. The age apex for wide receivers can be optimized for Dynasty, where elite receivers can break it, but yearly top performers are mostly found in the apex.
Age Apex WR Production
Top-12 WRs from each of the last five seasons in fantasy points per game
The plot of wide receiver production demonstrates that receivers can be productive in a diverse range of ages. Elite production of over 20 Fantasy Points per Game (red plot line) spans receivers from 22 to 31-years-old. Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams are at the top of the apex in their age 28 seasons. Production is coming from everywhere, but also from many of the same players.
Keenan Allen and Tyreek Hill were top-12 finishers in all five seasons shown. Davante Adams and Justin Jefferson finished top-12 in four seasons. 10 others have multiple top-12 finishes. These receivers display the potential for longevity through the age apex, giving receivers a looser range for production than running backs. The past five seasons of WR1 finishes average 27 years old, with half of the 60 top-12 finishes coming in between 24.8 – 28.75 years old.
Half of the 120 top-24 finishes from the last five seasons are clustered between 24.8-28.73 years old, showing little variance from the top-12 finishers data. This shows there is a definitive age range that is optimal for Dynasty managers to target receivers in.
Distribution of WR Ages
The boxplot shows that the ideal range to invest in receivers is from their mid-to-late twenties, predominantly in the purple-colored range. Outside of the range, there is a wide variance for outlying WR1/2 finishes, the oldest in the data being Julian Edelman in 2019 at 33.6-years-old. Targeting wide receivers for production from 24 to 28-years-old is ideal, but the elite receivers can produce when they are young or can make it last past their apex.
Age Apex WR Opportunity
Elite opportunity earners convey into elite production. Those who earn high Target Shares yearly tend to span nearly the full age apex for wide receivers.
Top-12 WRs from each of the last five seasons in Target Share
Half of the 60 top-12 receivers in terms of Target Share were between the ages of 24.45-28.63. The average age was 26.7, with the top target earners also being some of the top fantasy producers. Elite target earners with Target Shares over 30-percent (red plot line) range from 23 to 31-years-old.
Davante Adams, Keenan Allen, DeAndre Hopkins, and Stefon Diggs are examples of veterans with multiple years of high target earning and high production, leading into fantasy production past the age apex. All four players earned targets past the age apex. They broke the apex to produce for fantasy, though at a less efficient rate in later years.
Elite guys break the apex. However, if you are looking to hit on a player short-term, it is best to roll the dice during the age apex. Diontae Johnson is an example. He was 25 when he was top-12 in both production and usage during the 2021 season. There were 34 different receivers putting up a top-12 Target Share season over the last five seasons. Among the 20 receivers with one such season in the data, seven were outside a 24 to 28-year-old age apex range. Four of these were under 24 and have a good likelihood to hit big during the apex – Garrett Wilson, Ja’Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, and Drake London. Three were over 28, classifying as veteran outliers – John Brown, Julio Jones, and Julian Edelman.
The WR Age Apex as Defined by the Last Five Seasons
The wide receiver age apex has more variance than the running back age apex. For wide receivers, it spans around 24-28 years old. However, there is more variability for a producing receiver to be outside the age apex. The ages of top-12 wide receivers of the past five seasons had a variance of 7.78. The top-12 running backs of the past five seasons were at a variance of 4.25. This gives the receivers a larger range of ages from the last five seasons’ top fantasy producers.
Cooper Kupp had a recent down year where he finished outside the top-20 WRs in Fantasy Points per Game at 30 years old in 2023. His WR1 seasons came at the late end of the apex, coming at 26, 28, and 29. Now his likelihood of WR1 seasons starts to decrease, especially with the arrival of a new elite pass-catcher – Puka Nacua. Kupp’s recent trajectory shows how a WR age apex can be optimized. Buying him early in his career would have yielded great dividends. Selling him after 28, even waiting a year to sell him during his age 30 season, would have given fantasy managers a good haul while getting top-tier production from him already.
Optimizing the Age Apex for WRs Moving Forward
It is important to hold on to an elite wide receiver because they last longer throughout the age apex and can be a Dynasty cornerstone. Players like Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and Keenan Allen are examples of veterans with long-term elite usage and production into their late twenties. However, they are also examples of players past the age apex with a lesser likelihood of continuing elite usage and production in future seasons.
If a receiver has elite production and usage before the ideal age apex (younger than 24), that is a good indicator they will be a cornerstone for your Dynasty team throughout the age apex. Examples of receivers like this in recent years include Justin Jefferson and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Guys like Ja’Marr Chase and Puka Nacua are producing at a high level and entering the age apex in the coming years, setting them up for more years of elite production and usage.
Buys/Holds
The obvious elite cornerstones Dynasty managers should want for their teams include CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, etc. The emerging options include the Texans’ Nico Collins and Tank Dell, set to enter their age apexes with good production. Jakobi Meyers is a late-apex guy who will provide good short-term fantasy production.
When fishing for sleepers, it is best to look for younger guys who have found success, even with a smaller sample size as that sample size can increase more easily than skills like route running, contested catches, etc. Khalil Shakir is one example. He is 24-years-old, slated to enter his third season in the league, and has shown bursts of high-level production for key metrics.
Yards per Target Leaders in 2023:
Khalil Shakir – 13.6 👀
Brandon Aiyuk – 12.8
Nico Collins – 11.9
George Kittle – 11.3
Khalif Raymond – 11.1
George Pickens – 10.8
Justin Jefferson – 10.7
Tyreek Hill – 10.5
Noah Brown – 10.3
DJ Moore – 10
Deebo Samuel – 10
Dontayvion Wicks – 10— Wyatt 🥃 (@WyattB_FF) February 17, 2024
Tyreek Hill is one of those players that doesn’t always get an elite Target Share but produces massively and efficiently. While some of the other older elite receivers have shown indicators of decline based on both ability and opportunity in 2023, Hill has not shown that and can be a hold for all types of Dynasty teams.
Sells
Top producers that are above 30 will get less years of productivity out of them than the aforementioned buys/holds. Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen, and Mike Evans are all elite guys and could get another year of usefulness but can be parted with soon.
Amari Cooper and Deebo Samuel are other guys at back end of age apex that could be reaching a sell point, especially if their teams introduce more target competition.
Ultimately…
Wide receivers have a wider variance when it comes to production in the age apex. Receivers between 24-28 are your best bets, but your best-of-the-best elite receivers can be kept through their late twenties. Elite target earning is sticky for receivers and young guys who produce before the age apex are hot Dynasty assets that can be cemented as cornerstones. The age apex is a good target range for productive receivers and often the elite players are the ones producing outside of it.
