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David Montgomery was a fantasy hero in 2020, ending the year with a 17.5 (No. 6 among qualified running backs) Fantasy Points Per Game average. However, the team around him has changed considerably, especially in the backfield. PlayerProfiler’s advanced stats and metrics illuminate the reasons fantasy gamers need to proceed with caution.

With one RB1 fantasy finish in Fantasy Points Per Game already under his belt, Mongtomery is well on the way to being worth the cost it took to acquire him in 2019 rookie drafts. But unless he can prove that it doesn’t just take heavy volume for him to produce, Tarik Cohen and Damien Williams will ensure that he fails to repeat his RB1 finish from a season ago.

With the way tight ends are utilized as receivers, the argument that they need multiple years to develop is overblown. From the first year to the second, there’s a massive increase in fantasy value. Since 2010, there have been 11 more sophomore campaigns than rookie ones which finished with over 145.3 (TE1 in 2020) fantasy points, including T.J. Hockenson’s massive jump to TE5. So tight ends might not take as long to develop as some are led to believe.

Hockenson should have far more plays scripted for him to be Detroit’s primary passing game option. His physical profile, combined with his college production and draft capital is in potentially elite company. Only Kyle Pitts, Tyler Eifert, Noah Fant, and Vernon Davis, all first-round NFL Draft picks, have equaled or bettered Hockenson’s 115.2 (75th-percentile among qualified right ends) SPARQ-x score, 24.0-percent (74th-percentile) College Dominator Rating, and 15.2-percent College Target Share.

The Browns are for real and have been since acquiring a real coach with Kevin Stefanski. This roster is iron-clad after improvements to the defense this offseason. If this team remains healthy, a Super Bowl is in the range of outcomes. The only risk is that Baker Mayfield’s play may fall off if the team around him starts to crumble. They enter the year as favorites to win the NFC North.

The Jaguars are kings of the bad teams. A fitting title for a routinely dysfunctional group. Trevor Lawrence is a can’t miss QB prospect and deserves to be treated as such. He alone can elevate this team to the 5-7 win mark. Temper expectations in a year following massive turnover at every organizational level and just enjoy the ride.

James White averaged 8.3 (No. 46 among qualified running backs) Fantasy Points Per Game last season. While that’s nothing that’ll get the group chat talking, his 17.8-percent (No. 3) Target Share and 4.4 targets per game might. Opportunity is king. And when you double up with a message saying the Patriots targeted backs at a league-leading 29.2-percent clip, some chatmates may throw you a like.

While David Montgomery is an early-round fade, Tarik Cohen is worth a dart throw at his ADP. In Weeks 1-3 when healthy, Cohen averaged a 37.3-percent Snap Share, 4.7 carries per game, 18 routes run per game, and 3.0 targets per game. For context, Montgomery averaged a 51.9-percent Snap Share, 14.3 carries per game, 16.3 routes per game, and 3.0 targets per game. Cohen’s going to have a defined role.

A.J. Dillon has an incredible amount of upside and showed glimpses of greatness when he did see opportunity in 2020. Ranking No. 18 among qualified running backs last year in Expected Points Added (EPA), his upside is worth taking up a spot on your bench in 2021. Not to mention that he has some of the biggest quads I have ever seen. Do yourself a favor and draft A.J. Dillon in 2021.

It is clear that injuries can never be predicted in the NFL. However, it is also clear that if anything happens to Ezekiel Elliott in 2021, Tony Pollard is an immediate RB1. Furthermore, he has serious potential to win fantasy leagues if Elliott misses time. And while it is hard to say how much true opportunity he will have while Zeke IS healthy, his ability to create big plays and score high in fantasy makes him a high-end handcuff in 2021.

Lamar Jackson was the last remaining player in my first tier of quarterbacks. He has proven his generational rushing talent year after year, putting up an insane 1,005 (No. 1 among qualified quarterbacks) rushing yards and seven (No. 4) rushing touchdowns on 159 (No. 1) carries in 2020. His floor as a rusher alone should easily make him a QB1.

Michael Pittman’s upside at WR51 is undeniable. His early-second round draft capital is significant, and he gets a theoretical upgrade at quarterback from Jacoby Brissett to Carson Wentz. In the 12th round, I’ll take the chance that a player with a 111.2 (93rd-percentile) Speed Score and 10.25 (89th-percentile) Catch Radius breaks out in Year 2.

For the last 20 years, when considering the “money” performers at the quarterback position, the first name to mind has been Tom Brady. It should therefore surprise no one that Brady led all quarterbacks with 46 Money Throws in 2020. They accounted for 8-percent of his pass attempts for the season (610). Brady completed almost three times as many Money Throws as he threw Interceptable Passes (19).

At the other end of the scale, having a quarterback who can’t deliver the money plays can seriously impact a team’s hopes of success in a given year. Of the 30 quarterbacks with at least 300 pass attempts, Nick Mullens of the 49ers had the lowest number of Money Throws. He managed just four (No. 40 among qualified quarterbacks) from his 326 (No. 29) attempts (one-percent).

Michael Thomas battled through an injury-plagued season and two quarterbacks playing at subpar levels, but still managed to hit the 15 fantasy point mark in three of his seven games, posting a 42.5-percent (No. 1 among qualified wide receivers) Air Yards Share. Enter Jameis Winston, who can provide Thomas with higher quality, fantasy relevant targets and elevate his stomach churning -35.9-percent (No. 107) Target Premium.

Dak Prescott’s pre-injury production last year was mind blowing: 27 (No. 30) Deep Ball Attempts, a 55.6-percent (No. 3) Deep Ball Completion Percentage, 1.2 (No. 8) Red Zone Carries per Game, 45.1 (No. 11) Best Ball Points Added, and the list goes on. While he might not have the rushing upside you’d like, Prescott has everything he needs to be a best ball star quarterback in 2021: talent, a high powered offense, a solid supporting cast, and negative Game Scripts.

Myles Gaskin’s current ADP on Underdog is in the middle of the fifth round at 56.4, putting him at RB24. Gaskin is the perfect RB2 for your Hero RB builds. He was one of the biggest winners of the NFL Draft, with Miami electing not to take an RB until the seventh round. If you want to be one of the winners of your draft, take him as your RB2 in the fifth. You’re welcome.

Despite playing second fiddle to Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt still saw 198 (No. 11 among qualified running backs) carries on a Browns team that averaged 30.9 (No. 4) Team Run Plays Per Game. Even with Chubb healthy, Hunt has consistently put up RB2 numbers. If you’re the type of fantasy player drafting for injury upside, then he is easily the best RB for you.

The number of RB1s have contracted over time, culminating in a brutally small RB1 tier in 2020 with only three RB1s, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, and Derrick Henry. The RB1 tier is getting narrower and further away from the rest of the pack. The league-winning RBs are hitting harder now than in years past, but they are more scarce than ever before.

The difference between WR3s and WR2s is relatively smaller than the difference between RB2s and RB3s, furthering the hypothesis that the top-36 wide receivers are a tighter and deeper group than their counterparts in the RB position. Both running backs and wide receivers have small groups of elite top-end talent that only a portion of a fantasy football league will be able to snag. There are fewer RB1s and WR1s than there are spots in a 12 team fantasy league.