Why I dropped PlayerProfiler

I’ve been lurking on PlayerProfiler and listening to RotoUnderworld Radio for a few months now after hearing Evan Silva plug the site, trying to better understand this burgeoning, cult-like community of stat heads.

What I discovered was horrifying.

Brian Quick: The Value Proposition of the Year

Even with a new quarterback (Nick Foles) and a run oriented offense, Quick’s current ADP of approximately 150 is absurdly low. Last year, he was on pace for a 64/973/8 stat line.

Quick’s extrapolated season would have been good enough for a PPR WR23 finish, ahead of A.J. Green, Jordan Matthews, and Sammy Watkins.

Rob Gronkowski-fantasy-football

Rob Gronkowski’s Impossible ADP

By selecting Rob Gronkowski with a first-round pick, you are actually giving your league mates an immediate advantage over your team.

With the exception of leagues with scoring systems specifically designed to benefit the position, tight end is not a premium position in fantasy football. The best TEs produce far fewer fantasy points per game than the top running backs and wide receivers.


Justin Hardy: The New New Harry Douglas (in a good way)

Justin Hardy finds himself in Falcons camp vying for the 3rd receiver spot with Leonard Hankerson.

Hardy looks like a slot receiver, and that is the role that the Falcons need to fill. Based on metrics and production, Harry Douglas is a perfect fit for Atlanta’s slot role.


Nelson Agholor vs. Jordan Matthews: Target Hog Who?

Even without the occasional long touchdown, Jordan Matthews’ physical profile and experience still sets him up nicely to be the teams’ most productive all-around wide receiver in a flanker/slot target hog role, while Nelson Agholor plays the volatile outside receiver role.

This deployment seems optimal. The problem is Chip Kelly is the same coach who turned Riley Cooper into a fantasy weapon. Just because we think something is obviously optimal, does not make it obvious to Chip Kelly.

Searching for the Next Martavis Bryant

Each offseason, there are endless discussions about finding the next breakout star. Drafting a late-round player who eventually becomes a stud is one of the best ways to win leagues. Unfortunately, when the entire fantasy football community is predicting a breakout, the “sleeper” loses his ADP value.

An intelligent fantasy owner should be looking to pick up inexpensive assets who could be next year’s Martavis Bryant.


Recommending Rookies in Redraft

The enhanced value of rookie players is likely the result of the perceived risk accompanying anything new — the inherent uncertainty of never seeing a particular player perform at the NFL level.

Targeting rookies with early-round draft capital in relatively high-volume situations can provide an even more compelling value proposition.


Shane Vereen: Price Check Double-take

Shane Vereen has the potential to become “the guy” for the New York Giants only couple weeks into the regular season.

Even if Vereen only finds the end zone a handful of times in 2015, his instincts and superior ability in all phases of the game, particularly his sublime receiving skills, make him mismatch where ever he lines up on the football field and one of fantasy football’s great value plays.


Jerick McKinnon vs. Adrian Peterson: The Great Athleticismgasm

Adrian Peterson’s athletic profile and fantasy resume project him to be amongst the league’s best backs once again, but history would suggest Peterson’s floor is lower than his action-hero reputation suggests.

It’s time to let someone else invest high draft capital on him. The much younger, much cheaper Jerick McKinnon is a better value in all formats.

Justin Forsett-RB-Baltimore Ravens

Justin Forsett: The Sky is Fallin’

Justin Forsett’s perceived role and opportunity has driven up his cost while destroying any realistic chance to return that value.

Fear not, there is another running back on the Ravens that may be able to provide you with the incredible value that Forsett did last year.