This is Week 10 NFL Best Bets with BetOpenly! Here, the PlayerProfiler staff provides their best picks to take on BetOpenly—a spot where you can maximize value by avoiding the juice Vegas wants you to pay. In Week 9, our picks went 1-3, with Lamar Jackson‘s rushing yards being our only win of the week. This week, we are back with four best bets from Ahaan S. Rungta and Trevor Tipton, with odds that you can only get at BetOpenly.
As a reminder, BetOpenly has launched peer-to-peer player props. You now can also get better odds by 10 to 20 points than a traditional sports books which also charges on average 10%. When you see a player prop for -110 at another book, you will generally see that prop at BetOpenly for +108 to +100. That is massive savings and a value you cannot get anywhere else.
If you would like an introduction to using BetOpenly and want to know why it is more profitable than using a traditional sportsbook, check out our opening article of the season.
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On BetOpenly, you have the option to take or create your own bets on game lines (such as outright wins or spreads) but also to combine player props through the Instant DFS/Props menu. In today’s article, we have a few picks from each category. It is important to tail these picks with discipline. Stick to your normal wagers, don’t chase wins or losses, and play your peers instead of the juice-hungry sportsbooks.
Ahaan’s Week 10 Picks
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win (-104)
We are going right back to the well. Although Tampa Bay couldn’t come away from their Week 9 thriller with a win, they covered a short spread and showed plenty of reasons to trust them in Week 10. The Buccaneers are now 0-4 since their bye in a matchup between two teams coming off a loss.
If you are a follower of trends in the NFL, you’re in for a tough go in this one. The Titans are 0-6-0 straight up in their last six road games, and the Buccaneers are 0-7-1 against the spread in their last eight home games following a loss. Something has to give in a home game for Tampa Bay as essentially pick ‘em.
The Buccaneers are a tale of two identities on defense. While they have struggled against the pass, and haven’t pressured the quarterback, they rank No. 2 in rush EPA/play allowed. That means the Titans can’t just bully their way into a slow game led by veteran running back Derrick Henry and will have to ask their rookie quarterback Will Levis to drop back and make some big plays. In just two career starts, Levis has already thrown four danger plays. When Levis has been pressured, his metrics plummet overall.
On offense, the Buccaneers should be able to take advantage of a pass-funnel Titans defense that already ranks No. 27 in overall defensive EPA/play and recently lost safety Kevin Byard due to trade. This is nothing personal against the hot start to the career of Levis. However, at this price we are simply buying low on the more experienced roster in their comfortable home confines. Back Baker Mayfield and his Buccaneers to snap a lengthy losing streak against a retooling Titans squad. This is now juiced near -120 on most sportsbooks, but we can get it for almost even-money on BetOpenly.
Christian Kirk (JAX) OVER 53.5 receiving yards (+100)
Coming off a miss last week where the Jaguars played in iffy weather with a positive gamescript, we’re buying low on one of the league’s most consistent players this season. In Week 9, Christian Kirk recorded only five targets in an outlier script, the second-lowest on the season. This week, the weather is clear and Jacksonville is an underdog. Overall, Kirk has cleared this line in five of his eight games and draws a 49ers defense whose secondary isn’t deep but the pass rush is elite.
The volume should be all the way back as Trevor Lawrence looks to take his easy yards in the short game to slot receivers like Kirk. San Francisco mixes in a lot of zone defense, and Kirk’s target rate skyrockets to 27.3-percent against zone. His receptions line is heavily juiced to the “over” at 4.5 for good reason. On sportsbooks, you can snag his receiving yards at this 53.5 number at -125. On BetOpenly, you can buy it at a coin flip price.
Trevor’s Week 10 Picks
Kareem Hunt (CLE) OVER 19.5 rushing yards (-122)
Kareem Hunt of the Cleveland Browns has found the end zone for four straight weeks. He has a knack for making big plays and finding the end zone. This week, the Browns play the Baltimore Ravens who have a solid rushing defense. However, there are multiple reasons why Hunt should be able to rush for more than 19.5 yards this week.
First, Hunt has been playing well since getting signed in Cleveland. In his last four games, he has averaged 12.5 carries and 51.8 yards from scrimmage. In a game in which Cleveland needs to keep the ball out of the Ravens high powered offense, I expect a heavy dose of Hunt. Cleveland also currently has the No. 5 ranked rushing offense in the NFL even after losing superstar Nick Chubb for the season.
Ravens Run Defense
Secondly, the Ravens have allowed an average of 91.9 rushing yards per game this season while giving up 4.1 yards per carry. More importantly they give up a 3.8-percent explosive run percentage which is runs for 15+ yards.
Finally, Hunt has now rushed for 47, 31, 55, and 38 yards in his last four games. PlayerProfiler models him for 35.61 yards this week. That is a 45-percent edge against this line with BetOpenly. In order to win this game, Cleveland is going to have to slow down Lamar and company from the defensive side. Additionally, they are going to need to sustain long scoring drives with the offense to keep their defense fresh and give them a much-needed win in the AFC North.
CeeDee Lamb (DAL) OVER 5.5 receptions (-133)
In case you have been living on the moon, CeeDee Lamb is having a career year in 2023. He is currently the No. 5 leading wide receiver in the NFL. What is most impressive is the fact that Lamb has played in one less game than the four receivers ranked ahead of him. This week the Cowboys get to take on the same New York Giants they boat raced in Week 1. Lamb is one of the most talented wide receivers in the NFL. He is a big-play threat who can stretch the field vertically and make plays in the short and intermediate passing game. Lamb is also a physical receiver who can win contested catches.
The New York Giants have a struggling secondary. They have allowed the No. 4-most passing yards per game in the NFL this season. The Giants’ cornerbacks, Adoree’ Jackson and Fabian Moreau are both below-average players. Additionally, Lamb will draw a majority of Cor’Dale Flott. This gives him the best WR/CB matchup of this week. The Giants also have a weak pass rush. They have only sacked the quarterback 18 times this season. This is the No. 5-fewest in the NFL.
Cowboys Offensive Line
This means the Cowboys’ offensive line will have time to protect quarterback Dak Prescott, and Lamb will have more time to get open downfield. In addition, the Cowboys have a favorable matchup against the Giants’ defense. The Giants are a Cover 3 defense. This means that they play with three deep safeties. This leaves a lot of space in the middle of the field, which is where Lamb excels.
The last three weeks Lamb has seven, 12, and 11 receptions. More importantly, he is averaging 12.2 targets a game. Lamb has a 10.7 ADOT while having one of the best catch percentages in the NFL at 79.2-percent. He is garnering double the targets of any other option on the team at 72, and we expect that to continue this week against the lowly Giants. This line is currently -154 at Caesars, and we are getting a massive value at BetOpenly with the line being -133.