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If it seemed like Aaron Rodgers threw a passing touchdown on every drive, well, he almost did. Rodgers finished 2020 with 48 (No. 1 among qualified quarterbacks) Passing Touchdowns on 34.2 (No. 27) Team Pass Plays Per Game. Even Green Bay’s 2.00 (two plays per minute) Pace of Play ranked dead last in the NFL. All of this screams “efficiency outlier.”

Given that he falls into the low-efficiency outlier category, it’s not surprising that Baker Mayfield “boasted” a middling 0.45 (No. 18) Fantasy Points Per Dropback average and a -7.5 (No. 23) Production Premium. If the dominant running game remains, which seems likely, he could improve in the efficiency metrics with the play-action game. With projected low passing volume, he’ll need to rely on efficiency to produce anything better than middling or back-end QB2 numbers.

Last season, the Dallas Cowboys placed the franchise tag ($31.41 million) on Dak Prescott for him to prove himself as a franchise quarterback. A horrific broken ankle shortened his season. So why did the team take a perceived risk on a player coming off a catastrophic injury? Despite my slight mathematical error, the Cowboys could not afford the cap hit of a franchise tag on Prescott in 2021.

Want to see the fantasy football impact of a franchise quarterback? Look no further than the team’s top two pass-catchers last season, Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb. In Prescott’s five starts, Cooper finished with four top-24 wide receiver performances, and Lamb finished with three top-24 wide receiver performances. Both played in all 16 games; in 11 games without Prescott, Cooper had four top-24 wide receiver performances and Lamb only had one top-24 wide receiver performance.

To those familiar with college football, it should come as no surprise that Saquon Barkley sits atop the historical Breakout Ratings for RBs. A three-year starter in college, who had over 1,000 yards on the ground each season, brought in 54 passes for 632 yards as a junior, and ran a 4.40 flat in the 40-yard Dash. The 99th percentile SPARQ-x athlete and No. 2 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Yes, that guy is No. 1 all-time.

Certainly a bet on upside when Washington selected him in the NFL Draft’s third round, my modeling efforts found the Antonio Gibson pick to be savvy given that he has a slightly higher Breakout Rating than the average third-round pick. The Breakout Finder recognized his potential were he to land in a starting role, and he definitely impressed in Year 1, recording over 1,000 total yards and 11 rushing TDs.

Is Kadarius Toney as overrated as Elijah Moore is underrated? If Jaylen Waddle plays a full season, Devonta Smith does not win the Heisman trophy.

Impressed by Rondale Moore’s 42-inch vertical jump? How good is Kayshon Boutte and what does that say about Terrace Marshall?

D’Andre Swift only finished eight slots and 2.3 fantasy points away from Jonathan Taylor for the Fantasy Points per Game lead among rookie RBs. Swift hit a 14.6 (No. 16) FFPG average, while Taylor ended with a 16.9 (No. 8) FFPG average. Both now reside among the top six overall players in our dynasty rankings and this result can easily flip flop in a given year, but 2020 was Taylor’s time.

As was the case with both Minnesota and Carolina, Seattle’s narrow pass-game distribution was expected to work in D.K. Metcalf’s favor. Once again, the receiver on the other side of the formation had something to say about that, in this case it was the equally as good and equally as volatile Tyler Lockett.

A.J. Dillon is a sell high candidate? James Robinson is a buy in seasonal leagues.

Kenyan Drake is near the end of the line. Where should Allen Robinson sign in free agency?

With Curtis Samuel set to walk in free agency, D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson are primed to be what we target in fantasy football: high-floor, high-ceiling assets. High floor because of the narrow pass distribution and boost in volume. High ceiling because of the potential of better, efficient quarterback play.

Already in a narrow pass distribution tree, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are looking at an increase in targets in an already high-volume pass attack. Backed by a weak defense, we’re looking at another high-floor, high-ceiling receiver duo if Joe Burrow makes strides in Year 2. Boyd is going in the sixth round as WR26, while Higgins is going in the seventh as WR33.

Not all Unrealized Air Yards are created equal. In 2020, Calvin Ridley led all qualified wide receivers with 968 Unrealized Air Yards. The player with the second-most (965) was Denver Broncos rookie wideout Jerry Jeudy. He logged 1,536 (No. 6) Air Yards thanks in no small part to his steady diet of 25 (No. 7) Deep Targets. Why the huge disparity between these two players? Putting it mildly, quarterbacks matter.

A player posting a high share of Unrealized Air Yards is not necessarily a player to immediately shy away from. A target is, after all, earned by that player being good at catching the ball. That is why Jerry Jeudy is a bounceback candidate in 2021, especially if the Broncos can upgrade their quarterback. Calvin Ridley finished as the WR4 in Fantasy Points per Game in 2020 with a quarterback who was not among the elite in terms of accuracy.

The Running Back Doesn’t Matter philosophy stipulates RB production does not necessarily equate to talent, making the position replaceable. Investing significant capital in a top back who vanishes from utility is catastrophic to a dynasty team. Thus, RBDM proponents should run away from mediocre rushers who succeeded due to sheer volume. The few safe havens set to produce at an elite level for years to come should be coveted.

Running back talent has surged recently. The 2017 and 2020 draft classes gave rise to an RB renaissance. It’s on dynasty leaguers to make shrewd decisions on which current RB1s and emerging talents to place their chips on moving forward. I would target Miles Sanders or Antonio Gibson in trades for Josh Jacobs, and would sell David Montgomery in exchange for A.J. Dillon and a draft pick.

With Hunter Henry leaving in free agency, the tight end room is looking scarce for the first time in almost 20 years for the Chargers. Pairing Kyle Pitts with Justin Herbert is like pairing Philip Rivers with Antonio Gates. It just works.

With ongoing rumors of distrust in Drew Lock leaking from the Broncos organization, a trade is on the horizon. Denver leaps into the No. 2 pick hoping to finally put their quarterback issues to rest after five long years.