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A bet on volume is a shaky bet. But Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ran a route on 82-percent of Ryan Tannehill’s dropbacks last week. Now, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones are out. After the Jets this week, the second-year WR has the Jaguars on tap. That Jaguars defense rank third-to-last in Pass DVOA. I’d flex Westbrook-Ikhine in both contests. Brown and Jones are no bets to make it back for Week 5. Let’s stash the Titans’ No. 1 WR for the foreseeable future before the price goes up.

Kadarius Toney totaled season highs last week with Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton leaving the game early. The rookie WR totaled a 67.7-percent Snap Share, leading to 29 routes run. Toney earned three targets, more than in his first two games combined, and parlayed the opportunity into a 2-16 receiving line. While that’s nothing that’ll get the group chat talking, he has a first-round pedigree. This week, he’ll audition himself for a bigger role. And if he sticks, he has a juicy matchup against the Cowboys next week.

Jaylen Waddle is primed to deliver free money for those willing to take the Over 49.5 receiving yards line on Underdog Fantasy. Waddle’s Target Share has risen dramatically since Jacoby Brissett became the starting QB in Week 3.

Noah Fant will bounce back when he matches up against a Baltimore team that has allowed the most receiving yards to TE’s through Week 3. Targets will funnel to Noah Fant and Courtland Sutton because the Broncos are without another WR, after K.J. Hamler tore his ACL last week against the Jets.

As we close in on the first quarter of the NFL season, we’ll break down the high and low-efficiency outliers at wide receiver. Most of these receivers end up in starting lineups more often than not, while a couple may fit more in deeper leagues with multiple flex spots. It’s a fun and eye-opening exercise to use the Data Analysis Tool to sort through the efficiency outliers at different positions.

Darnell Mooney is inside the top-30 among qualified wide receivers in both Air Yards Share (33.5-percent) and Target Share (22.9-percent) for the Bears. Remember last week when Marquise Brown dropped two touchdowns against the Detroit Lions? Mooney is an equally as fast WR (4.38 40-Yard Dash, 95th-percentile) with better hands (two career drops on 117 targets).

Nelson Agholor has an 84.8-percent (No. 24) Snap Share, 114 (No. 7) Routes Run, and a 95.0-percent (No. 18) Route Participation. Fantasy football is about opportunity and being involved on offense is the first step to productivity. With 6 (No. 5) Deep Targets and a 14.0 (No. 21) Average Target Distance, he has a defined role on offense too.

Najee Harris is the new Saquon Barkley. Stash Marlon Mack and JJ Taylor now

What happened to Myles Gaskin? Why no one will take Josh Jacobs in a dynasty trade.

The words “reliable weekly fantasy starter” have not often been associated with Mike Williams. Thus far, the 2021 weekly fantasy point totals for the fifth year wideout read: 22.2 (WR14), 22.1 (WR10), and 33.2 (WR1). His 31 (No. 6) targets have him second on the team, just two behind perennial target hog Keenan Allen. No longer just a deep threat, Williams gains 12.57 Lifetime Value points to move up six spots to WR26.

Allen Robinson is off to a disappointing start to the 2021 season. Regardless of matchups, his quarterbacks have delivered a 4.64 (No. 71) Target Quality Rating and a 76.2-percent (No. 50) Catchable Target Rate. The Bears’ offensive game plan has produced a league-worst 4.8 Yards Per Attempt. It may be time to worry if Robinson can’t get on track when the Lions visit Soldier Field in Week 4.

For GPP tournaments with heavily weighted payout structures, it’s not enough to find high scoring players. You need to find points where others aren’t getting them. Where some fantasy gamers have moved off pre-season favorites who have underwhelmed, we see an opportunity for contrarian upside. We stack lowly rostered teams because that gives us the chance to find leverage and score where others aren’t.

In a week where it’s tempting to extrapolate the first few games of the season, it’s important to cut through the noise when building your daily fantasy football lineups. We expect a pass heavy game plan for the Cowboys this week which means a Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper stack are in play. We also look at why the advanced stats say to stick with Stefon Diggs even as his price holds steady.

Through a three week sample we can definitively say Cooper Kupp is ahead of Robert Woods. It would take a role swap in the opposite direction to even things out moving forward. However, like a falling knife, the gap between Woods and Kupp in price and ownership widens at an even faster rate than the gap in projection. With $2,500 between them, I am inclined to play Mr. Woods in more lineups once again, but I will make room for Kupp.

Derrick Henry chalk week is upon us. With both lead Titans receivers declared out, Henry is set to expand his already expanded pass game role. You can play Henry by all means, but if you want leverage off him, my favourite play is Anthony Firkser. The artist known as Firk-a-Licious is healthy this week, and at just $3,100, could viably lead the team in targets. He also plays more in passing situations so he’s a direct bet against Henry’s preferred script.

You should take shots with both Matthew Stafford and Kyler Murray in your lineups. With the injury to DeAndre Hopkins, Murray had his worst game of the season but was still able to accumulate 22.54 points. He could again rely more on his legs in a competitive contest against the Rans. The Cardinals let Kirk Cousins ring up three touchdowns on only 32 passes in Week 2. Assuming the Rams will have to pass, Stafford with three touchdowns will pay off his cost. So the issue becomes: is there upside? 

Jalen Hurts was set up to fail in Week 3, and if the Eagles have any chance of beating the Chiefs, they have to get him in better third down situations by running the ball on first and second with a running back. As for the Chiefs side, Patrick Mahomes should have no problem picking apart this defense. My hesitancy comes in whether or not the Eagles can keep this competitive. In addition, can the Eagles get pressure on Mahomes who has a 36.8-percent (No. 26 among qualified quarterbacks) Pressured Completion Percentage and has suffered from a 31.3-percent (No. 25) Deep Ball Completion Percentage?

After burning countless parlays in back to back weeks, the Chiefs look to get right this week with a visit to Philadelphia. Patrick Mahomes has yet to pay off his exorbitant price tag in recent weeks despite throwing for at least three passing touchdowns in each start. Mahomes’ 8.0-percent Touchdown Rate, 313 Passing Yards Per Game and nine passing touchdowns all rank top five at the position. Jalen Hurts should also do enough to keep the game competitive.

Alvin Kamara is always in play. His 77.6-percent (No. 6) Opportunity Share and 23.0-percent (No. 1) Target Share are elite. His opponent this week, the Giants, have allowed the second most receiving yards to running backs this season. You need some Kamara exposure.