It’s dynasty rookie draft season! I figured the best way to celebrate would be to move the rookie draft in my home league up by a month or so, but that met some resistance. So instead, we bear witness to an elaborate five round mock draft with fellow PlayerProfiler writers. Have fun, be safe, and enjoy the taeks.
1.01 – Ezekiel Elliott, RB, DAL (Matt Zimmerman, @mZimm22)
Rationale: Has there ever been a more no-brainier No. 1 pick?
Critic(s): I believe his name was T-Rich……. (The last Consensus #1)
Just for fun, here’s a list of running backs taken in the top five since 2005: Cadillac Williams, Cedric Benson, Reggie Bush, Darren McFadden, and Trent Richardson. Quite the company Zeke!
1.02 – Corey Coleman, WR, CLE (Tim Talmadge, @FullOnTLT)
Rationale: Coleman looks like the next Odell Beckham and is in a situation where he could see just as much volume.
1.03 – Josh Doctson, WR, WAS (Chris Bean, @ChristopherBean)
Rationale: Garcon looks done. Doctson was arguably the best receiver in this draft. There’s immediate opportunity for him and a clear path to becoming the No. 1 receiving option.
1.04 – Laquan Treadwell, WR, MIN (Matt Kelley, @Fantasy_Mansion)
Rationale: Treadwell just looks the part of the alpha receiver, sorry everybody!
Critic(s): Mansion is a fraud. -Craig
^ What he said. – Aaron
It’s all those cool catches isn’t it mansion? They suckered you in. – Also Craig
It’s like I don’t even know you anymore, Matt. – Graham
1.05 – CJ Prosise, RB, SEA (Ray Marzarella, @RayRayMarz)
Rationale: Regardless of how far Thomas Rawls has progressed in his recovery from a season-ending ankle injury, Prosise was drafted to be a pass-catching complement to Rawls early in his career. With the build and skill-set to become an every-down workhorse sooner rather than later, he’s a great fit for this now-explosive Seahawks offense.
1.06 – Michael Thomas, WR, NO (Craig Wambold, @CraigWambold)
Rationale: Thomas had arguably the 2nd best landing spot of this years rookie class. He should immediately fill the void left by Marques Colston with a ceiling similar to his predecessor.
1.07 – Derrick Henry, RB, TEN (Peter Davidson, @RotoBahn)
Rationale: Landing spot schmanding spot. Henry is 247 pounds of bad ass mother. He’s a future three down monster and I am willing to wait if the future isn’t now, though it certainly could be if we get the 2015 version of DeMarco Murray in 2016. I see six years of dominating play before this guy hits his decline. I’ll buy that at 1.07 all day long.
1.08 – Sterling Shepard, WR, NYG (Anthony Amico, @Amicsta)
Rationale: I didn’t love him as a prospect, but volume is volume. Shepard should see plenty of weak coverage targets playing opposite Odell Beckham.
1.09 – Tyler Boyd, WR, CIN (Christopher Gerrish, @GerrishBrosFF)
Rationale: I. Love. Tyler. Boyd. I don’t care about his DUI or his 40 time, the man could catch a rocket while blindfolded in a blizzard. And don’t even get me started on his college production, Boyd is a steal at 1.09.
1.10 – Kenneth Dixon, RB, BAL (Graham Barfield, @GrahamBarfield)
Rationale: Oh, so the second best running back in this draft class falls to me at 1.10? Thanks, guys. Objectively before the draft I liked Dixon just a bit more than Henry. Now that Dixon was deemed a fourth round prospect and Henry a second rounder, I’ve changed my tune but still love Dixon’s game in general. He’s very elusive (the most elusive back in this class per Yards Created) and profiles as a natural pass catcher (his 5.36 yards/route is second best in the class). Buck Allen was average at best on the ground in 2015 and Justin Forsett is 1. getting old and 2. not a major asset in the passing game. Dixon can serve both roles in Baltimore.
1.11 – Will Fuller, WR, HOU (Christopher Bergum, @HonoluluPastBlue)
Rationale: Sniped again. What are the odds? 2nd receiver off the board in the NFL draft AND they moved up to snag him, banking on BOB to know what he is doing. Hoping he turns out as Mike Wallace plus.
1.12 – Devontae Booker, RB, DEN (Aaron Butler, @RIPatriot)
Rationale: The last of the potential three down running backs in this draft with immediate opportunity. Booker can do everything well (86th percentile College Dominator). He could be the perfect running back in Kubiak’s offense for the post-Manning era.
Critic(s): Boom – Tim T.
Round Summary: It was a pretty tame first round, the only surprise being the Prosise selection at 1.05. I’ve tried, but I just can’t get excited about Prosise. He’s had one year of production at the collegiate level and it wasn’t even stellar. I get that he ran a fast 40 and that he can catch a few passes (converted WR), but Rawls still seems the dominant force there. To me at least. Not to Ray obviously.
2.01 – Leonte Carroo, WR, MIA
Rationale: I consider Carroo to be a top five talent in this draft. WR corps is getting crowded in Miami but beating out one or two of Landry, Stills, and Parker for a starting job shouldn’t be an insurmountable challenge. Why should we be sold on Parker as a starter when it is clear that the coaching staff clearly wasn’t?
2.02 – Kenyan Drake, RB, MIA
Rationale: Some people think Drake was over-drafted and are downplaying his upside. Fact is, the new Dolphins regime is telling you they think he’s the 3rd best RB in the class. Watch out Meh Ajayi.
2.03 – DeAndre Washington, RB, OAK
Editor’s note: No explanation was given for this pick, which is unfortunate, because I want to know the reasoning behind this.
Critic(s): I wouldn’t take George Washington this high.
2.04 – Jared Goff, QB, LA
Rationale: Tiny baby hands be damned!
2.05 – Pharoh Cooper, WR, LA
Rationale: Would’ve been drafted well before the 4th round had he not tested so poorly at the Combine. His size, versatility and elite production in the SEC at such a young age make him an ideal slot receiver to pair with hopeful franchise QB Jared ‘Tiny Baby Midget Hands’ Goff. It shouldn’t take him long to work his way up a soft depth chart.
Critic(s): Damn you Ray! Great Pick up here – Gerrish
2.06 – Paul Perkins, RB, NYG
Rationale: Perkins heads to a crowded backfield in the Big Apple but I like Perkins as a long term play here. Jennings and Vereen could be cut heading into 17 if Perkins shows well this season. He was a bell cow in his final 2 collegiate seasons meaning Perkins could see some run as the lead back in a time share due to Jennings extensive injury history, and at worst should play himself in some 3rd down work over an ineffective Vereen. This is a risky pick but one that could pay huge dividends down the road if Perkins lives up to his 3-down bell cow potential.
2.07 – Jordan Howard, RB, CHI
Rationale: Howard is a big value on my board. I like him as a stand-alone talent, but I also like his chances based on landing spot. The preexisting Bears RBs are not studs and Howard could be. He should take control sooner rather than later. While he is not a high-end PPR asset, he is a good option in any scoring format because he will touch the ball often and should own the stripe. And, his hands are certainly functional. I don’t want to paint him as a Michael Turner type in the passing game. He’s much better than that.
Critic(s): All signs point to Jeremy Langford not being very good but I can’t do it. Indiana RB takes usurps “bad” all-purpose running back. It’s like deja vu all over again… or maybe it’s PTSD (Post Tevin Shower Disaster). – Aaron
2.08 – Wendell Smallwood, RB, PHI
Rationale: Smallwood should enter 2016 as the primary backup to Ryan Mathews, which all but guarantees him a couple of starts in Doug Pederson’s run-heavy attack.
2.09 – Tyler Ervin, RB, HOU
Rationale: I’ll keep the RB run going strong here, and take the always exciting San Jose State prospect. He’s fast, he’s quick, he can catch and he can eat his weight in steak. He should carve out a role early in Houston as a return man and a compliment to THE Lamar Miller.
2.10 – Malcolm Mitchell, WR, NE
Rationale: New England always seems to be a sucker’s spot for wide receiver production and Mitchell doesn’t have a clear path to opportunity, but I’m willing to take a shot since he fell to me here in the 2nd round. Mitchell obviously doesn’t have the draft capital of Treadwell, Doctson and Coleman — but his final season market share of receiving yards (36%) lagged just behind Doctson (38%) and Coleman (39%). He’s worth a stab in the mid-to-late second round.
2.11 – Hunter Henry, TE, SD
2.12 – Chris Moore, WR, BAL
Rationale: The Ravens offensive depth chart is completely unsettled. Chris Moore was the 10th WR selected in 2016. At the 24th spot, I’m looking for undervalued players who can make big plays. I like Moore and his 18.0 YPR (86th-percentile) to make an immediate impact w/ Joe Flacco.
Round Summary: Chris Bean blew this thing up when he took DeAndre Washington at 15. Oakland has a need at RB with Latavius proving inconsistent, but with Perkins, Howard and Ervin on the board I can’t see the value there. Everything else was fairly mundane, first quarterback and first tight end go off the board here.
3.01 – Keith Marshall, RB, WAS
Rationale: Surprised he’s still available. Possibly he best landing spot for an RB this side of Zeke. Elite measurable and suppressed college production due to the Gurley/Chubb combo playing ahead of him at Georgia. Other consideration here for me was Braxton Miller.
3.02 – Daniel Lasco, RB, NO
Rationale: The clock is ticking on C.J. Spiller, and Lasco has an exciting profile.
3.03 – Ricardo Louis, WR, CLE
Rationale: Not a huge fan of Louis but the Browns have a wide open depth chart and plenty of opportunity.
3.04 – Michael Thomas, WR, LA
Rationale: What time is it???? GMT!!!!!!
So much for my evil plan of doubling down on Rams receivers – Ray
3.05 – Rashard Higgins, WR, CLE
Rationale: Another receiver whose poorly tested athleticism helped knock him into Day 3 of the NFL Draft, but who makes up for it with elite age-adjusted college production. He has the ability to work his way up a suddenly crowded depth chart in Cleveland and has an ideal slot receiver athletic/production profile.
Critic(s): Nice snag. Really think the Browns could be Baylor East this year with the kinds of weapons they are assembling to go with RGIII. – Anthony
3.06 – Paxton Lynch, QB, DEN
Rationale: None of the position players excite me and Lynch will get plenty of opportunity after Denver traded up in the 1st to acquire him. He does have a solid supporting cast around him and will not be asked to carry the offense early in his career. Lynch is also a superb athlete and a giant of a man, so if all else fails he has that going for him because he is not a bright individual (1st-percentile Wonderlic score).
3.07 – Braxton Miller, WR, HOU
Rationale: I can’t turn down an elite athlete in the third round. Miller is an old rookie (turns 24 in Nov) and he’s still learning his new position, but his ceiling is higher than most seem to think. Getting him at 31 overall underscores this. Miller has the potential to be a slot monster in Houston, where teams will have their hands full downfield with DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. Miller has a few technical things to clean up, but I expect rapid improvement and good things by year two if not sooner.
3.08 – Roger Lewis, WR, NYG
Rationale: Simply too good of a value at this juncture to pass up. After dominating a high volume pass offense in college, Lewis just has to beat out a career special teamer to be the WR3 for Big Blue in 2016. Over time, I think he could even beat out my first round pick in Sterling Shepard. Either way, I have the guy playing opposite OBJ locked up for the near future.
3.09 – Alex Collins, RB, SEA
Rationale: Hot taek alert: He’s better than Prosise. Not only by production, but by system fit as well. Collins should have this job in hand by the end on the season.
Critic(s): As the guy who took Prosise, I’m over here looking for my face, which was just melted by this taek – Ray
Lol at that comment Ray – Craig
3.10 – Josh Ferguson, RB, IND
Rationale: He’s a UDFA, but Frank Gore is nearly on his death bed and journeymen Robert Turbin and Jordan Todman are the only backs ahead of Ferguson on the depth chart heading into camp. Ferguson averaged 4.1 catches and 31.1 yards per-game catching balls out of the Illinois backfield in 2015.
Critic(s): Completely agree with this, and the receiving ability is a perfect fit for this offense – Anthony
3.11 – Austin Hooper, TE, ATL
Rationale: Allllll the Tight Ends! So much opportunity here, should speed up his development. His comp is Celek though….
3.12 – Jonathan Williams, RB, BUF
Rationale: Williams would have been in the conversation for top-5 RB in this class had he not missed all of 2015 with a foot injury. He’s discounted even further by landing with the Bills. Karlos Williams has a concussion history (missed 3 games his rookie season) and Buffalo could (probably) move on from LeSean McCoy before his massive contract is over. He’s a young prospect on a team built to play defense and run the ball. I think he’s a steal here.
Critic(s): This was a no-brainer. Good pick. Great upside at 36 overall. Was thinking about Williams when I took Miller. – Pete
Round Summary: Two undrafted free agents fly off the board in the latter half of round three, showing the shallow talent level of this class. I’m a big believer in Josh Ferguson, and he has a great chance to stick in Indy, but it may have been a bit early. I’m also a fan of Bergum nabbing all the draft relevant tight ends at decent value so far.
4.01 – Tajae Sharpe, WR, TEN
Rationale: It comes as no surprise to me that the athletic profile is trumping college production for most drafters. Sharpe’s 94th percentile breakout age and 72nd percentile college dominator show that he’s #goodatfootball. He is undersized and an underwhelming athlete, but again the opportunity in Tennessee is one where outside of Dorial Green-Beckham I don’t think there are any long term immovable objects. And hell, would anyone be surprised if DGB flames out?
Critic(s): Sharpe was a top 10 player for me before he ended up in the black hole that is Tennessee. “Exotic Smash Mouth” should be one of those fruity frozen drinks your wife gets at the bar, not the name of an NFL offense. – Anthony
4.02 – Keyarris Garrett, WR, CAR
Rationale: Garrett likely won’t make a big impact this season but he’s waiting in the wings if Kelvin (stone hands) Benjamin or Devin Funchess don’t make the most out of their opportunities.
Critic(s): Ah, was hoping he’d fall to me later this round. – Graham
4.03 – Paul McRoberts, WR, LAR
Rationale: I’m a production junkie. it’s at a small school but McRoberts was a whole other level of productive with a 62.3% DR(98th percentile). Rams WR core isn’t exactly intimidating.
Critic(s): Looks the part of an NFL Flanker, as seen by his Keenan Allen comp. Really interested how things shake out for him. – Tim
He’s worse than Nelson Spruce. Just saying. – Gerrish
4.04 – Kenny Lawler, WR, SEA
Rationale: Hi, tallest Seahawks wide receiver.
4.05 – Marshaun Coprich, RB, NYG
Rationale: In a vacuum, Coprich is a better looking RB prospect than the relatively ordinary looking Paul Perkins. And that’s before you consider that Coprich’s Pro Day saw him take nearly a tenth of a second off of his Combine 40-time, improve his Vertical Jump and record 20 yard shuttle and 3-Cone drill improvements that would bring his Agility Score from 11.84 (6th percentile) to a more manageable 11.32 (49th percentile). A two-time 2,000-yard rusher at the FCS level who landed on a team with a soft depth chart, and who has the talent to eventually work his way into a starting role provided he makes it to the final roster. Admittedly faces an uphill battle to be a contributor since he inexplicably went undrafted.
Critic(s): Damn you ray.
Fuck you, Ray.
Two damns and a fuck through 4 picks. I’ll take it. – Ray
4.06 – Ben Braunecker, TE, CHI
Rationale: Productive (89th-percentile dominator rating) athletic freak (94th-percentile agility score) sitting behind two pieces of glass on the depth chart.
4.07 – Demarcus Robinson, WR, KC
Rationale: Robinson is one of my favorite sleepers at receiver in this class. He’s a very dangerous player on film who shows a lot of NFL traits. Demarcus is a demon after the catch, but it’s his personal demons that make him risky. If he can find his football Jesus, I see immense potential—worthy of a fourth round dice roll. If he continues his immature ways, he’ll be this year’s Da’Rick Rogers.
4.08 – Darius Jackson, RB, DAL
Rationale: Many people are going to sleep on Jackson now that he is, at best, Ezekiel Elliott’s backup for the time being. However, he is extremely talented and athletic. Should anything ever happen to Zeke, he could have RB1 value as the starter. Since he was only a sixth round pick, he isn’t even a lock to make the roster, and could end up in a better depth chart situation fairly soon.
Critic(s): I’m with you, Anthony: http://rotobahn.com/scouting-report-darius-jackson-rb-eastern-michigan/
4.09 – Carson Wentz, QB, PHI
Rationale: We all clearly can’t stand Wentz, as we’ve let him fall all the way to pick 45. The value here is too great to not take the risk.
4.10 – Cardale Jones, QB, BUF
Rationale: Yeah, so, is Cardale > Wentz a hot take? In terms of immediate starter potential, Carson Wentz is the guy — but Jones is just as much of a project as Wentz is from the get-go. If anything happens to TyGod, Jones could ball.
Critic(s): And 12 Gauge >>>>> whatever nickname Wentz ends up with. Wentz meat pie? Gross. The Sixth Wentz starring Bruce Willis? Too long. I regret my pick already. -Gerrish
4.11 – Daniel Braverman, WR, CHI
Rationale: Slot guy, could get a lot of play in that system, I like him as a lesser Edelman type of player, MUCH better in PPR than standard but like him to stick around as the 3rd receiver on that team.
4.12 – Trevor Davis, WR, GB
Rationale: The Packers have spent a lot of draft capital on the position in the last three drafts. We got a glimpse of the GB offense without the 31-year old Jordy Nelson in 2015. Davis brings a 4.4 speed element to the vertical passing game that doesn’t exist on the roster outside of Jeff Janis.
Round Summary: The UDFA party continues with four being selected in round four. Two picks stand out to me this round: Kenny Lawler and Daniel Braverman. Both of those guys are late round selections that could really pay off not only down the line, but even starting this year. Braverman entered the draft early, and projects well to take Eddie Royal’s slot job in Chicago. Lawler is a metric nobody, who amazes on tape and has a large percentage of Cal’s receiving touchdowns over the past few years. As Matt said, Lawler will be Seattle’s tallest receiver and should be installed as a red zone threat early in his career.
5.01- Moritz “not Boehringer” Böhringer, WR, MIN
Rationale: College dominator? Nope. Breakout Age? Nope. Polished routes? Nope. In Spielman and athleticism I trust.
Critic(s): I nearly took Tyler Davis simply so we’d have an actual top GFL player on here.
5.02 – Dak Prescott, QB, DAL
Rationale: Could end up as the starting QB of a high powered offense. Also brings dual threat ability.
Critic(s): LOVE – Anthony
5.03- Mitch Mathews, WR, KCC
Rationale: Would have liked him A lot more if drafted, he’s extremely athletic and showed he’s a competent football player. unfortunately his 30.7% DR is at BYU, and he’s a bit older.
5.04 – Dwayne Washington, RB, DET
Rationale: Javorius Allen without the final year production. When in doubt, soak up the big back with great hands.
5.05- Jerell Adams, TE, NYG
Rationale: A 6-5, 247 pound, slightly less athletic version of Jared Cook who’s a solid blocker, forced 10 missed tackles on only 28 receptions last season and was drafted by a Giants team whose QB has been able to make far more out of far less at the tight end position over his career. Anything the Giants get from Larry Donnell will be a bonus given his neck injury, and Will Tye is still around. But there’s a lot to like about Adams.
5.06 – Jhurell Pressley, RB, MIN
Rationale: Ok, so he’s not McKinnon as an athlete, but really, who is? Pressley is a long shot but he is a decent athlete in his own right (87th-percentile SPARQ-x score), and fast (75th-percentile Speed Score). He also averaged 7.7 YPC for his college career! Downside is he has no experience catching passes. Worth the flier.
5.07 – Peyton Barber, RB, TB
Rationale: I’m a big fan of Barber, and I was surprised when he went undrafted. I think he can play on all downs and he’s a low mileage player with only a single season of big usage. Barber is a big back who is also agile and he knows how to run inside. He may have to sit a while in Tampa, but I like the talent and that’s enough to pull the trigger in round five. If he fails to stick in Tampa, I think he’ll latch on somewhere else.
5.08 – Jakeem Grant, WR, MIA
Rationale: Speed? Check. Production? Check. Versatility? Check. Grant is already being talked about as the return man for the Dolphins, and his role could eventually grow into one on the offense. The depth chart is loaded, but I’m just taking a swing here at the talent.
5.09 – Marquez North, WR, LA
Rationale: Was he undrafted because he failed like all of his medical exams? Yes. Does he have the potential to be the best receiver on the Rams? For sure. His stellar Combine performance shows that he’s a great athlete, and what little tape he has shows a guy who can use his size effectively. I’ll take this dart throw in the fifth.
5.10 – Kelvin Taylor, RB, SF
Rationale: Lord help me.
5.11 – Charone Peake, NYJ, WR
Rationale: Have the Clemson WR not done enough to just draft all of them that come out? I will keep drafting until one busts!
5.12 – Seth DeValve, TE, CLE
Rationale: I also considered taking Browns WR Jordan Payton here. I ultimately chose DeValve because he was selected in the 4th round (5th TE overall), and I don’t think Gary Barnidge (31-years old) is anything particularly special. I can envision a path where DeValve is the starter in 2017 and catching passes from Cody Kessler or some other 2017 rookie QB. He’s extremely athletic and had an above average College Dominator at Princeton. Also, if you have a cold and say his name, it sounds like “safety valve” which is exactly what I want my fantasy football tight end to be.
Round Summary: Gotta love the Dak Prescott pick at the top of the round. I’ll skip over the Moritz Experience because I don’t believe in magic. Other than that, I’ll say that Kelvin Taylor may have some impact in San Francisco. Chip Kelley likes to use multiple backs, and Taylor, despite his 5th round dynasty draft pedigree, may be a real sleeper this year. As a not for nothing stat, Taylor had a higher percentage of Florida’s rushing yards and rushing touchdowns than Ezekiel Elliott did for Ohio State. So chew on that for a bit. He’s also the son of Jaguar great Fred Taylor. I’m a fan.