NFL DFS DraftKings GPP Picks For Week 3

by Dookie Hogue · Upside Plays
kyler-murray-fantasy-football

Eat, Drink and Play Murray

Obsessing over ownership percentages and over-leveraging seems like a problem still overwhelming the field in large field tournaments.  In Week 2, the Milly Maker winner solo-binked with a 13-percent Tom Brady paired with a 18-percent Rob Gronkowski (smart chap/chapess). The reason I mention this is to highlight the importance of playing the best plays regardless of ownership because (on another 13 game slate) there are plenty of spots to leverage while fitting in some good chalk.

Kyler Murray Advanced Stats and Metrics Profile

Some good chalk I’m feeling this week includes rostering Kyler Murray at quarterback. It may seem like an obvious play because it is. He has been the QB2 and QB1 on back to back slates but projects as only the seventh-highest owned quarterback. Murray being the QB1 after two weeks isn’t as much a surprise as the way he’s put it together. It seems whether by matchup or game plan, the Cardinals have been willing to let Murray sling it. His 12 Deep Ball Attempts, 75-percent Deep Ball Completion Percentage and 7 Passing Touchdowns ranks top two at the position.

More of the same is in store in Week 3 too with the Jaguars up next. The Jaguars are a season removed from allowing the fourth most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and grade out as a bottom two pass defense after two weeks (Rotogrinders’ No. 31-ranked pass defense.)  The Cardinals’ hefty 29.5 Vegas total is good for second highest behind only the Chiefs in Week 3. Play Murray!

Quarterback Commentary

Daniel Jones has low-key 4xed his DraftKings salary in back to back games (22.4, 29.5 DKPt). His 7.5 Carries Per Game, 61 Rush Yards Per Game and 2 Rushing Touchdowns rank top two at the quarterback position (amongst more notable rushers Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts). His rushing production along with his $5,800 salary makes him worthy of your player pool in Week 3.

There’s an edge in condensing your player pool this week and paying up in MME (Mass Multi Entry). Names like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Tom Brady project to be sub-10-percent owned despite their teams’ Vegas totals pushing 30.

Chasing Rainbows

The Cardinals have been known for their use of the Air Raid Offense as an extension of the run game (or in lieu of one). And as expected, Chase Edmonds has been a beneficiary because of his pass catching chops. Through two weeks, Edmonds’ nine receptions is good for third on the team behind only DeAndre Hopkins and breakout rookie Rondale Moore.

Edmonds is averaging 4.0 (No. 7) Yards Created per Touch and 5.5 (No. 5) Yards per Carry. It’s never a bad idea to pair cheap pass catchers tethered to Murray in a game with such a lofty total.

Running Back Commentary

Dalvin Cook‘s injury is worth monitoring as he’s one of the few bell-cow backs on the slate. Listed as a non-participant in Friday’s practice, Cook has been tagged as questionable.  If he is healthy enough to play though, his workload alone puts him in consideration for tournaments. His 21 Carries Per Game and 20.45 Weighted Opportunities Per Game showcase his involvement in the Vikings offense. Positive touchdown regression should be in store if Cook suits up, facing a Seahawks defense that allowed 3 rushing touchdowns to Derrick Henry last week.

Coming off a hamstring injury, the Chargers played it safe by easing in star running back Austin Ekeler. After putting up a goose-egg in the Week 1 receiving column, Ekeler bounced back with 9 Receptions on 9 Targets. Ekeler should stay busy in what is setting up to be a “catch-up” Game Script against a Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs.

Have a Kuppa

Cooper Kupp is currently projected with a slate-high 17.6-percent ownership. With the production he’s bringing to the table though, he’s far from fadeable. Kupp’s 16 Receptions and 38-percent Target Share rank first and second among wide receivers to start the season. Matthew Stafford seems locked onto him too and the Rams have two wins to show for it. With Tom Brady and the Buccaneers visiting in Week 3, the game currently boasts the highest over/under on the slate at 55.5. Fire up, Kupp again!

Wide Receiver Commentary

Having been tasked with handling the workload following rookie Rashod Bateman‘s groin injury, Marquise Brown has stepped in a big way.  His 31-percent Target Share is second only to the aforementioned Cooper Kupp (to everyone’s surprise.)  He’s also posted a massive 50-percent Red Zone Target Share and gets a fantastic matchup against the vulnerable Lions’ secondary. The Ravens’ 29 point Vegas total along with Brown’s usage bump makes him intriguing for tournaments.

Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, Tyreek Hill, and Sterling Shepard all boast Target Shares north of 27-percent. The Seahawks and Chiefs have Vegas implied team totals of 30.75 and 28.5 (first and fourth on the slate.).

HockenSZN

The Podfather expects big things out of T.J. Hockenson this season and I’m expecting big things this week. Playing on a Lions team with fringe-NFL receiver talent has benefited Hockenson and given new teammate Jared Goff a reliable target. Goff has looked his his way often especially around the goal line, where Hockenson is tied for the second most Red Zone Targets among tight ends. In back to back weeks, the Ravens secondary has given up big games to Darren Waller and Travis Kelce, allowing over 100 yards and one touchdown to both studs.  Hockenson’s  21-percent Target Share trails only those two tight ends.