Welcome back to our expert article series, where Billy Muzio, Trevor Tipton, and Ahaan S. Rungta provide their best picks to take on BetOpenly—a spot where you can maximize value by avoiding the juice Vegas wants you to pay. This is BetOpenly Week 4 Picks!
If you would like an introduction to using BetOpenly and want to know why it is more profitable than using a traditional sportsbook, check out our opening article of the season.
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In Week 3, our picks went 4-2, including a sweep from Trevor via Brian Robinson clearing 55.5 rushing yards and Bijan Robinson clearing over 23.5 receiving yards. We avoided paying massive sportsbook juice and came out with a winning day.
On BetOpenly, you have the option to take or create your own bets on game lines (such as outright wins or spreads) but also to combine player props through the Instant DFS/Props menu. In today’s article, we have a few picks from each category. It is important to tail the picks with discipline. Stick to your normal wagers, don’t chase wins or losses, and play your peers instead of the juice-hungry sportsbooks.
Ahaan’s Week 4 Picks
Jacksonville Jaguars Spread -3 (-104)
We are starting off with the ultimate buy-low spot and heading across the ocean for the 2023 London Game between two teams that have already played in London in the last few years. Two years ago, the Falcons beat the Jets. Last year, the Jaguars beat the Broncos on U.K. soil. However, both teams look very different now. As a result, we are able to buy the significantly better roster at the price of just one field goal.
Through the first three weeks of the season, the division-favorite Jaguars have disappointed their way into a 1-2 record and most of the surprise has come from their mediocre offense. Trevor Lawrence ranks No. 33 in completion percentage and catchable pass rate under pressure and No. 15 in true passer rating. His receivers haven’t helped him either, ranking second in the league with seven dropped passes so far. This is a get-right spot for an offense that was surgical in the second half of last season. The Falcons’ passing defense ranks No. 21 in expected points contributed. The pass-first Jacksonville offense—led by a quarterback who ranked No. 7 in expected points added and No. 11 in adjusted yards per attempt last year—should be licking their chops.
Falcons Offense
As for the Falcons offense, they rely on a run-first game to keep the ball out of the hands of Desmond Ridder, who is yet to prove he can be a starter in the NFL long-term. So far this season, Ridder ranks No. 41 in catchable pass rate and No. 16 in expected points added. It is no coincidence that he struggled and failed to lead a touchdown drive against an improved Detroit defense in Week 3. The Jacksonville rushing defense ranks No. 7 in expected points contributed. Matching up against Atlanta’s preferences on offense will be key for Doug Pederson. Additionally, their personnel should be able to turn this into a Ridder vs. Lawrence pace battle. It is clear who has the edge here.
This line is either juiced to -115 or sitting at -3.5 on most sportsbooks. You can avoid paying that much on BetOpenly by snagging the push potential of the key number (3) at just a -104 price.
Houston Texans Spread +3 (-108)
Over the course of the season, sportsbooks will adjust their lines based on player performance, but they tend to be slower adjusting to information on rookies. We are targeting the legitimate and still-underrated Houston offense led by the connection between rookies C.J. Stroud and Nathaniel “Tank” Dell while also fading a Steelers offense that is still broken and could be lost without their top wideout Diontae Johnson.
The Steelers defense ranks No. 7 in the NFL in expected points contributed. However, In the two games Pittsburgh’s defense had success, they faced a declining Deshaun Watson and an aging Jimmy Garoppolo. A lot of their success is due to their second-highest pressure rate in the NFL.
Now they face Stroud, who has had to deal with a battered offensive line all season long and still ranks No. 11 in catchable pass rate, around middle-of-the-pack under pressure, and No. 8 in adjusted yards per attempt. It is time to adjust. Stroud should have been the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft. Now, he gets to face another team that ranks top-10 in the NFL in pace of play. This should allow for more opportunities to get the offense going at home.
Steelers Inconsistencies
The Steelers offense is inconsistent. They lack an efficient running game, an alpha receiver who can win routes at a high rate, a quarterback you can bank on, and are one of the worst play-calling teams in the NFL in short-yardage situations. Cornerback Derek Stingley is on the injured reserve. However, he was also on injured reserve in Week 3 when they essentially shut down the Jacksonville Jaguars. Houston’s defense is no punching bag under defensive-minded head coach DeMeco Ryans. As a result, they should be able to compete in this matchup at home with the offensive advantages.
On sportsbooks, you have to pay around a -120 juice to snag this key number of three points for push potential. However, on BetOpenly, you can get it at just -108.
Trevor’s Week 4 Picks
Brock Purdy SF Over 225.5 Pass Yards -115
First, Purdy has a number of weapons at his disposal. Some might argue the 49ers are deepest offensive group in the NFL. This includes Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk. This game has a 44-point total, and San Francisco has a 29.5 over/under point total currently.
Here are some specific reasons why Purdy is likely to throw for over 225.5 yards this week:
- Purdy is averaging 245.3 yards a game with an 8.09 YPA. Additionally, he has four touchdowns and no interceptions.
- Brock has a 106.3 Passer rating which is currently No. 5 in the NFL. That is combined with a 2nd best Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt at 8.13
- The 49ers have the No. 6 best pass blocking matchup this week. Arizona has the No. 18 Pass DVOA defense and ranks No. 21 in pass yards allowed.
- San Francisco currently has the No. 3 ranked Pass DVOA offense in the NFL. Aiyuk and Samuel both have great matchups against two of the weaker corners in Kei’Trel Clark and Marco Wilson.
Tyler Allgeier ATL Over 8.5 Rush Attempts +110
If we know anything about Arthur Smith it is that he loves to run the ball. Last week in the 20-6 loss to the Lions, Robinson and Allgeier had a combined 17 rushing attempts. Smith will right the ship this week and go back to what helped them win in Weeks 1 and 2.
- Allgeier currently has 38 rushing attempts this season while only having seven last week. He is producing an average of 11.4 rushing attempts.
- Allgeier has 123 yards after contact. This is top 14 in the NFL.
- Jacksonville has been one of the better run defenses in the league. However, as we saw last week, Houston was able to move the ball enough on the ground that it opened up the air attack. The Texans had 27 carries.
- Atlanta will need to rely heavily on Robinson and Allgeier in this game to keep the ball out of Lawrence and the Jaguars’ hands. We model Allgeier for 13 rushing attempts this week giving us a 32-percent edge on this line.
Billy’s Week 4 Picks
Miami Dolphins Spread +3 (-104)
The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins are setting the stage for a potential scoring extravaganza this Sunday. The Bills, led by the incredible dual threat, Josh Allen, have been the dominant force in the AFC East. Yet, the Dolphins, with their record-setting offense, have exhibited speed that has perplexed their opponents this season.
Despite the Bills’ favoritism, being 2.5-point favorites, Miami’s impeccable pace and the return of WR Jaylen Waddle make them a tempting pick, especially with the spread at +3 on BetOpenly. Last season, the Bills managed to secure victories against Miami but fell short of covering the spread in both encounters, each with a three-point win margin.
Buffalo’s prolific scoring, marked by 37 and 38 points in the last two games, combined with Miami’s staggering 70 points in their previous game, highlight why the over 53.5 points is a reasonable expectation.
The Dolphins’ recent performances and potential to exploit Buffalo’s defense with their speed, particularly with threats like NFL Offensive Player of the Year contender, WR Tyreek Hill, make Miami +3 a favorable bet to win against the spread. It seems plausible that Miami could either win or keep the game exceptionally close, potentially repeating the narrow margins witnessed last season.
Los Angeles Chargers Spread -5.5 (+100)
In a thrilling showdown, the Chargers secured victory in a tight game against the Vikings, with their defense making crucial, game-altering plays including a game-clinching interception by Kenneth Murray in the final quarter. Quarterback Justin Herbert was a key player. He impressively threw for 405 yards and three touchdowns.
Conversely, the Raiders faced a tough loss against the Steelers this past Sunday. Davante Adams emerged as the silver lining for Las Vegas, with 13 receptions for 172 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, however, had a challenging game, marked by three interceptions and four sacks.
Adding to the Raiders’ woes, Jimmy Garoppolo is currently under concussion protocol, potentially impacting his availability and performance in the upcoming games. This situation demands careful monitoring as the Raiders prepare for their next encounters.
The previous season saw the Chargers and the Raiders each winning one game in their series. However, with the Raiders struggling in all areas, the Chargers should secure their second win of the season and cover the spread.
