Welcome back to the 2023-24 Underdog Fantasy Pick ‘Em article series. This is your spot for finding the best-value weekly spots to pick whether players will go higher or lower than their projection. As usual, if you want weekly audio content for pick ‘ems, check out the Pick ‘Em Power Hour every Wednesday and Friday with us hosts, Ahaan S. Rungta (@AhaanRungta) and Trevor Tipton (@FFCULater). This is Underdog Best Player Pick ‘Ems Week 4!
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If you would like to tail our plays or create your own, join Underdog today with promo code UNDERWORLD for a 100% deposit match up to $100 USD upon entry. Here are our picks for Week 4.
Ahaan’s Week 4 Picks
Tony Pollard (DAL) HIGHER than 0.5 Rush + Rec TDs
The Patriots-Cowboys game currently has a Vegas total of 43.5, This is the No. 5 highest on the slate. Additionally, Dallas has the sixth-highest implied team total. After an embarrassing loss to the Arizona Cardinals, sportsbooks are expecting Dak Prescott and his improved weapons to bounce back and have fewer issues converting in the red zone.
This season, the newly ordained workhorse running back Tony Pollard ranks No. 1 in the NFL in red zone touches. Additionally, Pollard ranks No. 1 in carries inside the 10-yard-line. This is why his “anytime touchdown” prop is juiced up to -150 on sportsbooks. New England has allowed three rushing touchdowns in their last two games. Therefore, I expect that trend to continue in this contest, especially if an improved secondary is more focused on stopping star wideout CeeDee Lamb, who exploded for 149 receiving yards and two touchdowns in these teams’ previous meeting in 2021. If Dallas is to produce and win this game as 6.5-point favorites, they probably need Pollard to find paydirt.
Chad Ryland (NE) HIGHER than 1.5 XPs made
We are staying in this game and creating a two-pick entry with the “scoring” game script. I’m anticipating that New England and Dallas will be involved in a high-scoring affair in this indoor inter-conference battle.
The Patriots still lack an alpha receiver to make them a great offense. However, what they have improved upon this year under offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien is clear. Mac Jones is healthier and looks better. Additionally, the tempo of this offense is much brisker.
This season, the Patriots offense ranks No. 1 in pace of play. Jones ranks No. 10 among all quarterbacks in success rate, No. 12 in completion percentage under pressure, and No. 5 in pressured catchable pass rate. Pressure is how the Cowboys make plays frequently on the defensive side of the ball, but Jones’ improvement should be on display in this one as the Patriots look to keep it competitive.
Bill Belichick is not a coach known to go for two early in games. Therefore, it makes sense that kicker Chad Ryland is juiced up to -125 on sportsbooks to make at least two extra points, making this great value as a pick ‘em.
Trevor’s Week 4 Picks
Brock Purdy (SF) HIGHER than 232.5 passing yards
The San Francisco 49ers come into Week 4 undefeated and get the Arizona Cardinals on the road. San Francisco is tied for the highest implied team total this week at 28.5. Daniel Jones and the Giants showed in the second half of their matchup how vulnerable the Cardinals can be. The Cardinals lack the ability to get after the quarterback. San Francisco has one of the best pass blocking matchups of the Week 4 slate. The Cardinals have the No. 21 ranked pass defense in the NFL.
Purdy is averaging 245.3 passing yards per game with a 106.3 passer rating and now faces an Arizona defense that gives San Francisco the sixth-best pass block matchup. Additionally, wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel have two of the top-14 receiver-cornerback matchups this week. Additionally, Purdy also has Kittle and McCaffrey to throw to.
PlayerProfiler projects Purdy for 262 yards this week, making this higher a smash spot as a pick ‘em.
Bijan Robinson (ATL) HIGHER than 25.5 receiving yards
Bijan Robinson and the Atlanta Falcons are coming off a 20-6 loss to the Detroit Lions in which Robinson and Allgeier were misused by Arthur Smith. This week, they travel to London to face another talented defense in the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Even in their loss, Robinson had six targets again last week and now has 17 for the season. Atlanta has the worst run block matchup of Week 4. Even with a talented backfield duo, they will be forced to pass against a Jacksonville team with a 23.5 implied team total. Jacksonville has surrendered 793 passing yards this season which moves them to the sixth worst in the NFL.
Look at these Falcons' Catch Rates:
-Drake London: 57.1%
-Mack Hollins: 50%
-Kyle Pitts: 52.9%
-Bijan Robinson: 82.4%
Either Ridder has Bijan on his fantasy team or the pass catchers have a bigger problems than Arthur Smith
— Matty Kiwoom (@MattyKiwoom) September 29, 2023
Robinson has 78 routes run, a 19.3-percent target share, and 116 yards after contact. Overall, he has 14 receptions for 102 yards with an elite 7.29 yards per route run. Back the first-round draft pick in this negative game script.