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By weighting Catchable Target Rate by Average Target Distance, we see different WRs who are in similar per-target situations for scoring fantasy points. Cooper Kupp has a remarkably high 83.2-percent (No. 17 among qualified wide receivers) Catchable Target Rate. Those targets came with a 6.6 (No. 103) Average Target Distance. He is likely to convert his targets into receptions. From a fantasy perspective, each individual reception is not generating significant fantasy point-scoring opportunity.

Conversely, Mike Williams has a low 65.9-percent (No. 100) Catchable Target Rate on a 14.8 (No. 9) Average Target Distance. He’s not nearly as likely to catch every target he receives, but when he does, they are likely to generate more fantasy points due to being deeper down the field. Those deeper receptions rack up more yards and more touchdowns. He and Kupp play differently, but their per-target opportunity is the same through the lens of Target Quality Rating.

The Lions decided to let all of their wide receivers walk in free agency this year and look to let Jared Goff suffer for his sins. T.J. Hockenson is set to explode in his third NFL season. Best Comparable to superstar Travis Kelce due to his impressive workout metrics, Hockenson is in prime position to capitalize on the lack of competition around him and become the player he was drafted to be at No. 8 overall in 2019.

Ja’Marr Chase has come to Cincinnati and will immediately demand the most targets on this team in the post-A.J. Green era. The biggest question for the Bengals is whether they will be able to sustain fantasy production for their three notable wide receivers: Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. It’s no secret that Joe Burrow likes to sling it, and with an offense full of pass catchers, it doesn’t seem like sustaining Chase, Higgins, and Boyd (in that order) would be a tall task.

Why New Orleans is still paying Drew Brees and needs a new credit card. Why Howie Roseman needs to focus on the finances and stop drafting wide receivers like Jalen Reagor.

Detroit is rebuilding the right way around future All Pro Penei Sewell. The Bengals and Ja’Marr Chase and are moving in the right direction while the Steelers and Najee Harris are moving in the wrong direction.

The goal in an auction draft is to to get the most player value out of the auction budget. Drafters should be comfortable spending near equal value on any player in any given tier. Additionally, they can track player values within tiers to spot trends and exploit pricing inefficiencies. Abiding by the tiers is crucial for accomplishing this goal because it allows gamers clearly identify undervalued and overvalued players alike.

As expected, higher ADP equates to higher auction values. Using the ADP data against your rankings is the key to finding values in the draft. For example, your RB6 is a top-12 player, but ADP has him as a top-24 player. Therefore, it should be relatively easy to draft him because the market perceives him worthy of 16-percent of your total budget, whereas a top 12 player is worthy of 23.3-percent of the budget.

Deshaun Watson’s value will be a ridiculous value in a couple years. CeeDee Lamb was a veto button pick by Jerry Jones.

Darrell Henderson looks healthy this year. The Rams are making splash moves bringing in Matthew Stafford in the wake of the Jared Goff mistake.

Season-long correlation benefits gamers in both best ball and traditional leagues. Whether you’re setting your lineup or not is entirely irrelevant to wanting your top players’ probabilities of outperforming their expectations to be correlated. You want your team to score the most points in both formats, and by drafting a set of players whose individual outcomes are dependent on as few variables as possible, you are increasing your probability that all of them hit.  

We posit that the strength of stacking in best ball formats stem almost entirely from season-long correlation rather than week-to-week correlation. On the other hand, by stacking in traditional leagues, you benefit from both season-long correlation and week-to-week correlation. By implication, we expect stacking in traditional leagues to have a larger increase in your win probability than in best ball leagues. 

Courtland Sutton is a proper alpha receiver. Where will Deshaun Watson play football in the future?

Why Justin Fields and Trey Lance go earlier in best ball leagues. Anthony Miller going to Houston opens up targets for Tarik Cohen.

Brandon Aiyuk flashed high-end upside when he was on the field. He was elite on a per game basis, and his opportunity metrics legitimize that production. His athleticism, versatility, and belonging to a Kyle Shanahan offense all raise his floor and ceiling. However, there are unknowns surrounding him. Trey Lance’s immaturity as a passer, and how Aiyuk performs alongside a healthy George Kittle and Deebo Samuel, will be what decides his value for the next five years.

Tee Higgins is a supremely talented, young, traditional wide receiver who is attached to a great quarterback. With a crowded receiver room, Higgins’ value will be defined by how many targets he receives relative to Tyler Boyd and Ja’Marr Chase. Regardless, at worst, he will be the second option on a fantastic offense and be productive in that role. But he also has perennial top-12 upside.

Cam Akers is still ahead of Henderson in dynasty. Comparing Zach Wilson and Mac Jones.

Who is Dax Milne? Trey Lance was boosted by Patrick Mahomes.

The clearest difference between best ball and DFS tournaments is the length of the play period. This affects how you analyze variance. In DFS, maximize volatility within a single game to increase your ceiling. Between two players with similar weekly medians you will always opt for a Mecole Hardman over a Hunter Renfrow. This has been accepted as a perfect translation to best ball and I don’t understand why.

Have you ever heard the term “play whoever you want” in DFS? It’s often misinterpreted. Nobody recommends filling out lineups with $1,000 salary left over in the milli-maker because you wanted to ‘get your guys;’ yet this attitude has been adopted by many in best ball. ‘Play whoever you want’ actually means ‘any set of correlated pieces can be viable in a given slate as part of a constructed lineup.’