Dynasty Fantasy Football | The QB “Bucket List”

by Dan Williamson · Featured
Dynasty Fantasy Football | The QB "Bucket List"

Before we begin, I want you to know one thing: Rankings suck. I rebel against the very idea that there’s any value in assigning a discrete numerical order to any fantasy position. Rankings are ALWAYS wrong. There’s never been an expert who nailed the exact order of finish for any position, and there never will be.

“Buckets” and tiers are a much better way to view players, regardless of what format you play. They force us to think more about archetypes and less about some wild guess as to what sort of statistics a player will generate over the course of the season. Buckets add nuance. Lists do not. Nuances are much more useful for assembling resilient, strong, competitive teams. They allow us to balance potential risks and rewards in a way that a list can never do.

Everyone on board with the concept? Great! Let’s now take a look at how we can build our dynasty quarterback buckets. Players won’t always fit neatly into the bucket they are assigned. We just want to get as close as possible. If there’s an argument for assigning a different bucket to a particular player, we’ll note that along the way.

I have created 12 different buckets for QBs this year. Undoubtedly, when I do this exercise next year, some signal-callers will jump out of one bucket and into another. That’s totally normal. Each year brings new information, but all we can do is integrate the information we currently have.

OK, that’s plenty of preamble; on with the show!

PlayerProfiler is home to award-winning dynasty rankings and tools. Our Dynasty Deluxe package includes complete Dynasty Rankings, Rookie Rankings, Trade Analyzer, Draft Planner, Mock Drafts, and more. Check it out.

More than Just A Drop

Bucket 1 | Dual Threat Studs

Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, Jaxson Dart

We could almost divide this one into two sub-tiers: those who have already excelled for years and those primed to do so. But there’s no doubt that the younger QBs won’t come cheap in trades. Health permitting, they should return many years of excellent value. Is Daniels too fragile to pay up for? Is Dart too reckless with his body? These are the major decisions to be made within this bucket. I won’t waste any more words trying to galaxy-brain the no-brainer top dogs.

Bucket 2: Prime Pocket-Passing Studs

Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert

These three gunslingers are in the prime of their careers and lead quality passing attacks. They are far from immobile, but they tend to rely on their arm talents more than their scrambling abilities. At 30 years old or younger, their peak window is still wide open. They will likely age more gracefully than the players in Bucket 1. Rushing chops vanish more quickly with age than passing acumen. These are your blue-chip stocks, reliable year after year. If we must pick nits, Burrow has struggled with injuries in the past, and Mahomes might start slow coming off an ACL tear. If that makes them any cheaper to acquire, take advantage of the temporary discount.

Bucket 3: Stable Young Guns

Jalen Hurts, Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence, Brock Purdy, Bo Nix

I debated for a long time whether Hurts really belongs in this bucket or in the first bucket. I decided I just don’t trust his passing abilities quite enough to push him up. But you can make your own call on that. I won’t quibble either way. The rest of these QBs fit into that not-quite-elite tier for me at this time, but they all have potential to move to Bucket 1 or Bucket 2. If you have a strong conviction on any of these players, consider buying now. Their prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year.

Bucket 4: Old Reliables

Dak Prescott, Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff

These three players can hang with any QB in Bucket 3 in any given week. They could even perform better over the entire year. Talent-wise, the drop off is quite minimal. The biggest difference is that all three of these players are over 30 years old. I would argue that QB age doesn’t matter until they reach age 34 or 35. In a standard 3-year dynasty window, these players will remain below that threshold. What that primarily means to us is VALUE. All of these players will sell at a significant discount from Bucket 3 players, yet they can hang right with them in fantasy scoring.

Bucket 5: Safe and Young

Jordan Love, Cameron Ward, C.J. Stroud, Sam Darnold, Bryce Young, Fernando Mendoza

In most cases, these QBs are actually MORE expensive to acquire than the QBs in Bucket 5. What you’re buying, though, is primarily youth. Their scoring success has been limited so far. The rationale for dumping them in this bucket differs from one player to the next.

It might be due to inexperience, sub-optimal arm talent, or another reason. You can certainly talk yourself into any of these players, just keep in mind you’re paying a premium for potential that may or may not ever be realized. Nevertheless, they mostly have enough job security to feel comfortable rostering them as a QB2 on your dynasty squad. If there’s one QB that might look a little out of place here, it’s Darnold. I challenge you to find a better fit, bucket-wise, so he lives here for now.

Bucket 6: Wheels Up for 2026

Malik Willis, Tyler Shough, Matthew Stafford

This trio of QBs makes for great bets for this year, but they could be out of a starting job as soon as 2027. Willis and Shough will definitely be moving into a different bucket next year. They could ascend to Bucket 5 or drop to a lower bucket.

Stafford will either retire next year, exiting the Bucket List entirely, or stay in this bucket for 2027 if he chooses to play. All of them have reasons for optimism in 2026, though. Shough is already priced as if he’s in Bucket 5, and that’s a red flag if you aren’t completely sold on him. Willis and Stafford are much more attractively priced, at least to get you through 2026.

Bucket 7: Prove It

Kyler Murray, Michael Penix Jr., Ty Simpson, Tua Tagovailoa

Murray, Penix, and Tua are desperately trying to merge onto the Mayfield-Darnold Redemption Road. Will they succeed? Place your bets if you have the guts (or if your back is against the wall and you have no choice). Murray and Tua flailed their way out of their first NFL stop and are now looking to capitalize in the second-chance sweepstakes. There are reasons for both optimism and pessimism. For sure, you can’t overspend to acquire them. If you already roster them, perhaps there is someone more desperate than you who can give you an exit ramp if you’re no longer a believer in the talent.

Simpson doesn’t fit neatly into any bucket, but I’m sticking him here anyway. I think the Rams will be asking him to “prove it” in practice daily. His learning curve over the course of the year will heavily influence his status in 2027. If he’s floundering, we likely see one last season of Stafford at the wheel in 2027 while the Simpson car remains on pit row.

Bucket 8:  White-Knuckle Options

Geno Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jacoby Brissett

Continuing down the avenue of our recently developed automotive analogy, these rust buckets might get you all the way to 2027. You might also end up stranded on the roadside, gas can in hand, watching all the other teams in your league speed by. You know you should have gassed up at the last exit, but you just had to push it, didn’t you? If this is where you end up, you have nobody to blame but yourself. But if your gambit DOES work out, you can get some baseline-level QB performance for a rock-bottom price. Either way, the warranty expired years ago. Prepare to accept your fate, whatever it might be.

Bucket 9:  Young Failures

Anthony Richardson, J.J. McCarthy, Mac Jones

These players are much like those in Bucket 8, except they don’t have starting jobs available to them at this time. All were highly drafted, and it’s a good bet that another starting opportunity will come down the turnpike eventually. If you have someplace to stash them, the prices may never get cheaper. You might luck into a Darnold/Mayfield riches-to-rags-to-riches fairy tale. Even if that second chance fails, you might find yourself with a solid NFL backup. And that could lead to a third and final chance if something happens to the starter. Prepare for a long wait and the possibility that your patience may go unrewarded.

Bucket 10:  Probably Dead, Somehow Still Breathing

Shedeur Sanders, Deshaun Watson, Carson Beck, Justin Fields, Kirk Cousins

The money says it’s a solid bet that Watson starts Week 1 for the Cleveland Browns. After that, all bets are off. The starter’s ping-pong match between Watson and Shedeur will likely ensue early in the season. Maybe you want to bet on one. Maybe you can roster both and hope the QB changes happen between games rather than mid-game.

Cousins is your mandatory Fernandomania insurance policy. Cousins is just good enough that we must take the Raiders seriously about sitting Mendoza for at least part of the season. Now’s the time to get Cousins before the rest of the world wakes up to the very real possibility that he opens the season as the Raiders’ starter.

Rookie Beck probably starts some games at the end of the season just so the Cardinals can prove he isn’t the guy before going into the 2027 draft. Fields might (and probably should) start the first few games to allow Mahomes to get fully game-ready. The bottom line is that you can eke a few starts from these QBs as long as you aren’t fussy about minor issues like scoring actual fantasy points.

Bucket 11:  Hopium Dealers

Will Howard, Drew Allar, Taylen Green, Garrett Nussmeier

Are you rostering any of these players, just waiting to spring them on your league when they miraculously ascend to starter status? You might be trying too hard to be one of the cool kids. Either that, or you’re a devy diva, unwilling to abandon your priors in the face of overwhelming evidence. The NFL Draft has already told you these players are destined to be career backups. Put down the hopium pipe and rejoin the real world.

Bucket 12: 

Everyone Else

If you’re seriously looking to add any QB not already listed here, seek help. Seriously. Please take a good look in the mirror and ask yourself how you got to this point. These guys have little to no draft capital and/or have already flopped. Their NFL team will only turn to them in desperation and will likely bring in a washed-up veteran to replace them as soon as possible. 

The good news is that you can easily rediscover the hope you thought was forever gone from your life! Just pick up the phone and dial 1-800-DOWNBAD, and one of our crisis counselors will assist you. Once you’ve acknowledged that you have a problem, you can begin to put the pieces of your shattered dreams back together. The process won’t be quick or easy, but millions have already made that same journey. You can do it too!


For more articles from PlayerProfiler, check out the fantasy home page – NFL Fantasy | PlayerProfiler – Fantasy Football News & Media