Week 13 has come and gone, and we are now just one week away from the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. Week 13 was much kinder to my “Sit” recommendations than my “Start,” where I had some mixed results, aside from completely missing at the WR and TE positions. D’Andre Swift was my only miss in the “Sit” column, though (ahem), he didn’t even lead his team in rushing yards. Week 14 is bound to bring some surprises of its own, but let’s see what we can glean from taking a close look at these matchups to find fantasy football start/sit picks for the final week of the regular season.
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Quarterback
Start: Jared Goff
Jared Goff‘s Explosive Rating
“Another home game, another start recommendation for Jared Goff” is what you might be expecting. But, believe it or not, the Lions’ quarterback has fairly even home/away splits this season to date. Be that as it may, Goff’s matchup this Thursday is a little too juicy not to mention.
The Lions host the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday night, giving each team a full week to prepare after each having hosted their customary Thanksgiving Day games last week. Despite the Cowboys’ newfound winning ways, they are still a matchup to target in fantasy, maybe even more so now than before. With their offense recently kicking things into high gear, thanks largely to the emergence of George Pickens, the Cowboys are likely to push opposing offenses to keep up. Expect some fireworks on Thursday night this week.
Honorable Mention: Jordan Love
Sit: Jacoby Brissett
It’s been a remarkable run for the veteran backup, who has been a fantasy QB1 since taking over for Kyler Murray in Week 6. Throughout that time, however, he has played against a top-10 defense just once. That was the Packers, who allow the sixth-fewest points per game to opposing quarterbacks, back in Week 7. He was still able to eke out a QB12 finish that week, but he was sacked six times and held under 300 yards passing.
This week, Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals host the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday. The Rams are allowing the seventh-fewest points per game to opposing quarterbacks and have forced ten turnovers over the last five games. After getting beaten by the Carolina Panthers last week, look for the Rams’ defense to get after Brissett and Co. early and often this week.
Honorable Mention: Daniel Jones
Running Back
Start: Omarion Hampton
Omarion Hampton‘s Athletic Profile
As of this writing, star rookie Omarion Hampton is expected to make his return on Monday night when the Chargers host the Philadelphia Eagles. He hasn’t played since Week 5, when he fractured his left ankle.
Meanwhile, the Bears’ running backs throttled this Philadelphia defense last week. While it was a season-high in rushing yards given up by Philly by a long shot, struggling against the run isn’t new to this group. They’ve allowed at least 100 yards rushing in all but three games this year, a far cry from last year, when they had seven such games to this point in the season.
We should be more than confident plugging Hampton into our lineups if he is active. If by chance he is not, Kimani Vidal would slot in as a strong RB2 option.
Honorable Mentions: RJ Harvey, Jaylen Warren
Sit: Woody Marks
We have to go back to Week 10 to find the last time the rookie put up a double-digit fantasy score. Last week, Woody Marks‘ snap share dipped to 53.9%, his lowest since Week 9. Adding to the volume concerns and poor offensive line play, the former Trojan has a terrible matchup this week.
The Texans travel to Arrowhead to face the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night this week. The Chiefs have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. Look for KC defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to come up with an effective scheme for this primetime showdown as the Chiefs look to make their playoff push.
Honorable Mentions: Zonovan Knight, Aaron Jones
Wide Receiver
Start: DK Metcalf
DK Metcalf has had a relatively pedestrian first season with Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers so far, coming into Week 14 as the WR27 on the year in PPR scoring. He hasn’t broken the 20-point threshold since Week 4, when he secured one of his two WR1 finishes as the WR7. I’m not writing this to tell you he is about to post another WR1 week, but he is startable this week in your WR2 slot with some boom potential.
Week 14 has the Steelers visiting the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET. The Ravens are coming off a bad loss to another divisional rival, the Cincinnati Bengals, on Thanksgiving night. This game against the Ravens has some serious playoff implications; these teams are gonna come out swinging. And the Ravens give up the tenth-most points per game to opposing wideouts. As the unquestioned alpha and target leader (24 more targets than the target-earner No. 2 on his team), expect the sixth-year pro to get substantial opportunities this week in a matchup that could pay big dividends.
Honorable Mentions: Zay Flowers, Courtland Sutton
Sit: Khalil Shakir
After posting just one target last week in a plus matchup with the Steelers, Khalil Shakir and the Bills are taking on the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 14. The Bengals, though surging as an entire defense with a strong performance against the Ravens last week, have been stingy against wide receivers for most of the season. In fact, they give up the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. The Bills will attack the Bengals by leaning on their stout run game and attacking via the tight end position in the air. The Bengals are dead last in defending the tight end position on a fantasy points per game basis. Given that he will be facing the toughest part of the Bengals’ weak defense, Shakir is a Sit this week.
Honorable Mentions: Devonta Smith, Terry McLaurin
Tight End
Start: Brenton Strange
Brenton Strange‘s Efficiency Metrics
After posting a TE7 finish in PPR last week, Brenton Strange enters Week 14 as our seventh-ranked tight end. This week’s matchup? The Indianapolis Colts. The Colts are giving up the third-most PPR points per game to opposing tight ends. Look for beleaguered quarterback Trevor Lawrence to look to his most reliable target in clutch moments on Sunday.
Honorable Mention: Kyle Pitts
Sit: Evan Engram
I know, Evan Engram had a nice game last week. He posted his first TE1 finish since Week 4. But let’s be mindful not to chase the points here. Engram has been wildly inconsistent all year. This is not the tight end we need as we battle for our playoff lives (or for a first-round bye, good job!).
Engram’s Week 14 opponent, the Las Vegas Raiders, have been surprisingly effective in limiting production from opposing tight ends, allowing the third-fewest PPR points per game to the position. Let’s leave Engram on waivers where he belongs.
Honorable Mention: A.J. Barner
That’s all for this week!
As always, thank you for reading.
I’ll be back next week to discuss our matchups for ROUND ONE of the fantasy playoffs!
Feel free to hit me up on X, Instagram, or Bluesky to let me know if you agree or disagree, or to share your own lineup dilemmas!
Many Successes,
Kyle
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