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3 Scorching Hot DFS Takes: Week 12

The Browns have placed Kareem Hunt in the role previously occupied by D’Ernest Johnson and then turned that role up to 11. In two games, Hunt has recorded 32.7 Weighted Opportunities, 16.3 per game. Hunt is $2,500 cheaper than Nick Chubb on DraftKings, but may end up being the better play against Miami in Week 12 regardless of price.

Jacob Hollister registered a 23.4-percent (73rd-percentile among qualified tight ends) College Dominator Rating and a 20.8 (61st-percentile) Breakout Age. He also has the athleticism to match his production, being above-average in every athletic measurement. With the profile of a talented move tight end, and targets that are thrown from a demigod, Hollister is set up for a fantastic performance this week against the Eagles.

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Fantasy Football Trends to Watch – Week 12 Edition

The Browns have used two running backs on 37-percent of their plays over their previous two games. With Cleveland struggling to find a third wide receiver of consequence or a noteworthy tight end, playing with two running backs is their optimal player personnel configuration. Together, Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb are among the top running back tandems in the NFL, with opposing defenses needing to adjust to a unique player personnel configuration.

In their last two games, Tampa Bay has used 11-personnel on 80-percent of their snaps. With O.J. Howard struggling, the Bucs have increased playing time for their third wide receiver. Unlike previous weeks, Scott Miller actually stepped up and played a significant role alongside Breshad Perriman. With Perriman seemingly losing snaps, Miller remains a name to monitor in Tampa Bay’s pass-friendly offense.

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Heads Up: Forecasting for the Fantasy Playoffs

The offense as a whole for the Patriots has been a little hit or miss, and the defense has carried the team through much of the season. If there was a stretch for Sony Michel to go off, this is it. The Pats call 28 run plays per game, ninth-most in the league, and Michel’s 30 (No. 8 among qualified running backs) red zone touches means he will continue to be the beneficiary of New England’s frequent trips into scoring position.

The Jaguars have the second-easiest pass schedule for the playoffs per Sharp Football Stats, meaning D.J. Chark and the rest of the Jacksonville pass-catchers may provide blow-up weeks for those all-important matchups. Chark is top-12 in fantasy points per game, yards per target and receiving yards. Chris Conley has come on hot lately, so both he and Dede Westbrook are sneaky trade targets after a tough Week 11 loss to the Colts.

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Leonard Fournette and Other Week 11 Fantasy Busts

Leonard Fournette has compiled 240 opportunities for nearly 1,200 yards, but he’s only scored once. He’s the Julio Jones of running backs. Other than touchdowns, Fournette is putting together a stellar season. He’s top-five in Snap Share, Opportunity Share, Weighted Opportunities, red zone touches, receptions and Yards Created. Regression must hit. Plz.

After finally “breaking out” with seven targets, four receptions, 47 yards and a touchdown in Week 10, O.J. Howard’s production plummeted. He failed to secure his only target and even popped it up for an interception. He is a lost cause at this point and is completely droppable, like his 15.4-percent (No. 1 among qualified tight ends) Drop Rate.

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Nyheim Hines Sight and Other Week 11 Waiver Targets

The Indianapolis backfield will split in Marlon Mack’s absence. Jordan Wilkins and Jonathan Williams will both get work, but will be largely touchdown dependent and won’t see enough volume for them to be great bets. Rather than banking on touchdown luck, the smarter play is to acquire Nyheim Hines, the player who will be most involved in the passing game.

The level of volume that Cameron Brate is seeing at the tight end position is not ignorable. Exactly three other tight ends have been targeted 14 or more times in a single game this season, and no tight end has had multiple games with that number of targets. Streamers playing the likes of Ross Dwelley, and now needing the next guy, could do worse.

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Week 11’s Lessons Learned: Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant’s Bright Futures

Through this week’s action, Courtland Sutton has a 49-805-4 line with bottom-five QB play. Sutton has fully ascended in the wake of the Emmanuel Sanders trade, rolling up 33 fantasy points in his last two games. The quarterbacking truly can’t get worst going forward, so he is a strong hold or buy in dynasty and should be valued as such.

Jonathan Williams is this week’s premier waiver wire add with the Colts calling the fifth-most run plays per game and a crucial Thursday night matchup on tap with the division rival Texans. Houston was brutalized by the Ravens run game on Sunday, giving up more than 260 rushing yards to Lamar Jackson and company. With T.Y Hilton still ailing, Williams steps into a massive workload behind one of the best lines in football.

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Wide Receiver vs. Cornerback Matchups to Target: Week 11

Deebo Samuel caught fire last week with a career performance against Seattle. Logging eight receptions on 11 targets for 112 receiving yards, Samuel had his best day as a pro in the NFL. With Emmanuel Sanders hobbled and George Kittle sidelined, Samuel’s matchup with Byron Murphy is arguably the best play in Week 11.

Michael Thomas’ 103 (No. 1 among qualified wide receivers) targets have yielded 86 (No. 1) receptions for 1,027 (No. 1) receiving yards and four (No. 71) touchdowns. Averaging 23.5 (No. 1) Fantasy Points Per Game, Thomas has been among the only constants in fantasy football in 2019. This week, he’s poised to feast on Buccaneers cornerback Carlton Davis.

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The Long Gain: Bargain Running Backs to Target in Week 11

Last week, the Chiefs allowed Derrick Henry to run for 191 yards and two touchdowns, good for the RB1 finish. It’s safe to expect similar results from Melvin Gordon in Week 11. He has seen over 20 touches per game over the last two weeks and appears to have reclaimed the bellcow role in Los Angeles. Fire him up in Week 11 lineups and watch the cash flow in.

Was there anything more predictable than seeing an article touting Brian Hill in Week 11 on PlayerProfiler? Despite being on a
team that’s last in the league in rush attempts, he should see plenty of run against a Carolina defense that allows +6.43 points above the mean to opposing running backs.

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DraftKings Value Plays and GPP Targets for Week 11

Now priced as DraftKings’ most expensive quarterback, Lamar Jackson brings a ceiling unlike any other quarterback in the NFL. Looking at rushing numbers alone, he ranks 11th in the NFL with 702 rushing yards. Averaging 14 rush attempts per game in his last four contests, this usage on the ground gives him a massive floor/ceiling combo for DFS.

While the Falcons remain 4.5-point road underdogs in Week 11, Brian Hill draws a fantastic matchup against Carolina’s poor run defense. So far this season, the Panthers allow 136.7 rushing yards per game, which ranks 29th in the NFL. Projected to handle a full workload here, Hill remains a sharp value play on the Week 11 slate.