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Breaking Down the DraftKings Divisional Weekend Slate

While Lamar Jackson’s best attribute is his rushing, he put any doubters to sleep this season by leading the league with 36 passing scores. With 1,213 yards and seven scores on the ground this season, Jackson possesses the highest floor among quarterbacks. He also hit the 100-yard rushing bonus in five games, which no other QB on the slate did once.

DraftKings is begging us to play Travis Kelce at $6400. Not only did he finish either No. 1 or No. 2 in every major receiving category at his position, but he also posted at least 9.8 fantasy points in all but one game (Week 17) this season. The Chiefs also have the highest implied team total on the slate, giving Kelce the most touchdown equity at the position. With some solid value at wide receiver, it makes sense to pay up for his combination of floor and ceiling.

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Fanduel Divisional Round Breakdown: Saturday

The 49ers have the second-highest team total of the slate at 25.5, and Jimmy Garoppolo has shown a decent amount of upside this season. His three games with four passing scores are second only to Lamar Jackson. Jimmy GQ was a top-10 passer in 2019 by a number of advanced metrics. Most importantly, he’s the No. 1 Deep Ball passer by completion percentage among qualified quarterbacks, an important skill for tournament-winning signal callers to possess.

Raheem Mostert ($6,800) is the lead back for a 7.5-point home favorite and still may end up the least popular starting running back on a slate with four teams. He’s seen double-digit carries in each of the past five games and has scored a touchdown in six straight. Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida have peaked at six and seven touches respectively over the previous five. Mostert is possibly the only way to roster low-owned running back touches on Saturday.

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Fanduel Wild Card Breakdown: Sunday

The Sunday slate features the two highest totals of the weekend, so the cash options at quarterback are much more bountiful. However, Russell Wilson ($8,200) is the only one with a rushing floor. Wilson ended the 2019 regular season with 75 (No. 5 among qualified quarterbacks) carries, 13 (No. 8) red zone carries and 342 (No. 6) rushing yards. Between his rushing production and passing efficiency, there are too few ways for Wilson to fail to not play him in cash.

The blueprint for Dallas Goedert chalk week was set a few days ago when Joshua Perkins ($5,100) outscored him by 4.5 points. Goedert played every snap and saw 10 targets. However, Perkins took the field for 78.4-percent of the Eagles’ snaps and was targeted six times. All it takes is one touchdown swing for Perkins to put up more fantasy points than Goedert, who will still be upwards of 10 times as popular. This is the type of leverage that tournament players dream of.

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FanDuel Wild Card Breakdown: Saturday

Josh Allen ($8,200) is the preferred target in GPP’s, with no player bringing forth his level of upside. As always, there’s serious rushing upside with Allen. He ended the 2019 regular season with 109 (No. 2 among qualified quarterbacks) carries, 22 (No. 2) red zone carries and nine (No. 1) rushing touchdowns. A multi-touchdown game on the ground likely breaks the entire slate, and that’s well within his range of outcomes.

If playing Josh Allen at quarterback, John Brown ($6,800) is so highly correlated with him that we have to fit him into our lineups. Most of Allen’s deep pass volume has come through Brown. He’s in rarefied company based on his volume, and Allen has done a phenomenal job feeding him the ball, evidence by a 7.0 (No. 13) Target Quality Rating. Against a Houston defense that allows an NFL fourth-most 267.2 passing yards per game, how can we not go overweight on the Brown/Allen combo?

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Breaking Down the DraftKings WildCard Weekend Slate

While Josh Allen has a cannon for an arm, evidenced by the highest Throw Velocity in the PlayerProfiler database, he also has an above-average 4.75 (77th-percentile among qualified quarterbacks) 40-yard dash, 118.1 (82nd-percentile) Burst Score and 11.30 (69th-percentile) Agility Score at 6-5, 237 pounds. Playing Allen without stacking any of his pass-catchers is an excellent contrarian strategy because he can be the QB1 on this slate without any of his receivers popping off.

With 10 games of at least 16 touches this season, Carlos Hyde is clearly the preferred option in the Houston backfield. The Texans are favored by three points over the Bills, so Hyde should see neutral to positive game script throughout the contest. Deshaun Watson may struggle to find production through the air, so expect Bill O’Brien to use Hyde more than usual to take advantage of that matchup. He can easily top 100 yards and hit pay dirt multiple times.

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FFPC Playoff Challenge Breakdown: How to Win $500,000 in Four Weeks

Anyone from Minnesota is most likely a one-week play because the Vikings are eight-point dogs this week. Because running back is so thin, Dalvin Cook has massive upside for one game after coming off three weeks of rest. The Vikings/Saints showdown has a 48-point total, highest of the first weekend. Cook has per-game marks of 17.9 (No. 6 among qualified running backs) carries, 17.8 (No. 7) Weighted Opportunites and 3.6 (No. 4) red zone touches.

Mark Ingram has said he’ll be playing in the Divisional Round but he’s unlikely to be at 100-percent health. His volume was also a bit fraudulent this season. Despite finishing with 201 (No. 18) carries, he only recorded 167.7 (No. 25) Weighted Opportunites because of his minor receiving role. The only edge in taking Ingram is if he vultures numerous touchdowns from Lamar Jackson. That can happen, and Ingram will be virtually unowned, so feel free to get chalky after taking him.

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Wide Receiver vs Cornerback Matchups to Target: Week 17

Although Allen Robinson is walking into this matchup as a target hog, it’s clear he won’t need a robust uptick in volume to have his way with Xavier Rhodes. Regardless, Robinson’s 33.5-percent (No. 11 among qualified wide receivers) Dominator Rating in a Chicago offense that averages 38.9 (No. 11) Team Pass Plays Per Game will be enough to push Rhodes to failure. Lock Robinson in as a top play for week 17.

Guarding Courtland Sutton is a tall task for any defender. Averaging 2.48 (No. 11) Yards Per Pass Route and 15.8 (No. 18) Yards Per Reception, he’s among the most efficient receivers in the league. Last time he saw Oakland, Sutton exploded for seven receptions and 120 receiving yards for 19 fantasy points. With Oakland allowing 269 passing yards and two passing TDs on a per game average, he’s in line for another boom week to end 2019 on a high note.

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The Long Gain: Bargain Running Backs to Target in Week 17

When healthy, Marlon Mack has been the unquestioned leader of the Colts’ backfield. Boasting a 63.3-percent (No. 18 among qualified running backs) Opportunity Share on the team averaging 29.6 (No. 6) rush attempts per game is no small accomplishment. Both the Colts and Jaguars are limping into the offseason, but that doesn’t mean Mack can’t go out in style against a league worst run defense.

Following the injury to Mark Ingram in Week 16 against the Browns, Justice Hill finally had a chance to shine, and finished the day with six touches for 51 yards and a touchdown. He now has a chance to split backfield touches with Gus Edwards against the Steelers in Week 17 with Ingram having already been declared out for the game. With rising opportunity heading his way, it’s time to embrace the bargain buy one more time, and slot Hill into our lineups this Week 17.

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Cheap DFS Lineup Makers for Week 17

John Ross and his NFL-record 4.22 40-yard dash always present a mismatch. The only problem for him has been his health and a lack of opportunity. Ross put those concerns to bed in Week 16, running a season-high 46 routes and seeing 13 targets against the Dolphins. He only caught six of them, but he saw a ridiculous 283 Air Yards in that game.

Darius Slayton has yet to log a full practice this week, meaning Golden Tate will continue to operate as the primary option for the Giants. He’ll be running the majority of his routes in the slot on Rasul Douglas, who ranks No. 119 in PlayerProfiler’s CB rankings. This game also has a 45.5-point total, which is the second-highest on the slate. Tate’s low price makes him a bargain in this game environment.

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Fantasy Football Trends to Watch – Week 17 Edition

In a highly competitive Week 16 match against the Patriots, the Bills played Devin Singletary on 98-percent of their offensive snaps. Conversely, Frank Gore played only two total snaps through the entire game. Singletary also touched the ball 16 times, while Gore failed to record a single touch. Already playing as Buffalo’s primary receiving back, Singletary appears to have asserted himself as Buffalo’s bell-cow back moving forward.

With LeSean McCoy late-scratched, Damien Williams stepped up to play 54.8-percent of Kansas City’s snaps in Week 17. Needing a win and a New England loss to change their position, it remains to be seen whether Kansas City will sit any players this week. However, with Spencer Ware also landing on injured reserve, the Chiefs appear comfortable with Williams leading this backfield moving forward.