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Chris Carson had ball security issues in Week 12, putting the ball on the ground not once but twice. Rashaad Penny saw increased opportunity as a result and absolutely capitalized on it. Penny truthers have to believe that the toothpaste is out of the tube and that the Seahawks are running out of reasons to keep him on the sideline.

Mike Gesicki’s role in Miami has matured. In the last four weeks he has played no less than two thirds of the snaps, run no less than 22 routes and seen no fewer than six targets. Throwing more fuel on the fire, his looks are not of the Cameron Brate dump-off variety, with seven (No. 6 among qualified tight ends) Deep Targets. Gesicki is trending towards being an every week starter at the right time.

D.J. Moore has emerged as the Panthers’ first true WR1 since Steve Smith, and he has eclipsed preseason hype rocket Curtis Samuel, even while rarely finding the endzone before this week. The Panthers face off with the Redskins, Falcons, Seahawks and then the Colts in the fantasy championship. While Carolina’s playoff hopes are in doubt, Moore has spike week potential.

Ryan Tannehill has morphed from waiver wire hero to every week starter. Especially with Tennessee making a late-season playoff push against fellow contenders in the Colts, Raiders, Texans and Saints. He makes for a solid cheaper quarterback option until DraftKings wises up and adjusts.

The legend of Julio Jones vs Tampa Bay is one as old as time. Every season is different and fantasy gamers shouldn’t bank on previous single-game samples. However, what we can bank on is the actionable data of his matchup with Carlton Davis. Jones will eat chunk yardage down the field, and Davis’ propensity to give up touchdowns make this the lock button play of the week.

When life hands us lemons, we play the matchups and dominate our fantasy week. Such is the case with Jamison Crowder in Week 12. With the upward trajectory of quarterback play from Sam Darnold, Crowder’s ceiling has risen to a top-12 play in recent weeks. Going against Oakland’s Nevin Lawson elevates his ceiling even further.

Derrius Guice put up a solid performance against the Jets in Week 11. He rushed for 24 yards on seven carries and hauled in a 45-yard receiving touchdown. His performance was just enough to allow us to get excited for his next matchup against the Detroit Lions. While the low volume should keep his ownership at a reasonable percentage for at least another week.

Since returning from suspension in Week 10, Kareem Hunt has quickly carved out a role in the Cleveland Browns backfield. While he has yet to demand significant touches, he has averaged 13.1 fantasy points over the last two weeks and seen the third-most targets among running backs since Week 10. This week the Browns get their shot at the Miami Dolphins.

Phillip Lindsay out-snapped Royce Freeman 64-percent to 30-percent last week. From an efficiency standpoint, this is the right move for Denver. Lindsay’s +0.2 (No. 34 among qualified running backs) Production Premium dwarfs Freeman’s -15.3 (No. 51) mark. While Denver enters Week 12 as a four-point road underdog, Buffalo provides a sneaky good matchup for opposing running backs.

With little tight end value on the board, Vance McDonald stands out as a potential price play. Pittsburgh currently projects to play without JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Conner in this contest, potentially elevating his volume. McDonald has played on 96-percent of Pittsburgh’s snaps in back-to-back weeks, seeing seven targets in both games.

Bo Scarbrough solves this equation: Size + Speed + Run Blocking + Positive Game Script = Fantasy RB2. If your team is a playoff lock, pass. If you desperately need a win, bid big.

Don’t go all-in on game script-dependent satellite backs like Nyheim Hines. The Cowboys face a long string of pass funnel defenses down the stretch, which will force Tony Pollard onto the field more than most Ezekiel Elliott fantasy owners will be prepared to stomach.

While his efficiency was diminished against a stout Jets front, Derrius Guice flashed his 110.2 (92nd-percentile among qualified running backs) Speed Score on a 45-yard screen pass for a touchdown. Guice will continue to out-snap and out-touch his aging teammate Adrian Peterson, and he has a chance to smash his low salary this week. The Lions are allowing the most fantasy points per game to running backs.

With a 134.5 (98th-percentile) SPARQ-x score and a 109.8 (91st-percentile) Speed Score, N’Keal Harry should flash his splash play upside. This matchup has a reasonably-high total at 45.0, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, so Tom Brady should be forced to throw the ball with the efficient Dallas offense coming to town. Look for Harry to carve out a role with his opportunity.

Devante Parker is offended by his DraftKings salary. Hunter Renfrow is more than a slot receiver.

Imagine if the Bills drafted Josh Rosen? You need to play Zach Ertz in DFS.

Alvin Kamara has finished as the RB11 and RB3 in the two games since returning from an ankle injury, large in part due to his heavy involvement in the passing game. He saw 10 targets in both of those contests, converting 18 of them for receptions. At $1,200 cheaper than Christian McCaffrey on FanDuel, and $1,300 less on DraftKings, he is a great play if you need that extra salary.

It seems like the whole fantasy community is in denial of the DeVante Parker post-hype breakout season that is unfolding right before our eyes. He is among the top-24 wide receivers in targets, receiving yards, Completed Air Yards, yards per reception and touchdowns. Parker has finished as the WR31 or better in seven straight games, and is the WR17 since Week 4.

Chris Conley’s scoring oscillation from week to week contributes to his low ownership percentage. He’s scored five or fewer fantasy points in five games this season, but still averages nine fantasy points per game. His fluctuation distills out in the form of a 7.4 (No. 41 among wide receivers) Weekly Volatility mark. He’s well worth a roster spot, the key lies in figuring out when to play him.

Conley draws a fantasy playoff stretch that includes matchups against Tampa Bay, Oakland and Atlanta. He’s had at least one 15-yard reception in all but one game this season, with a long of 70. Given his lid-lifting speed and propensity for big plays, he’s set up to smash. His consistent usage and high ceiling make him an appealing play in Jacksonville’s remaining matchups during the fantasy football season.