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Mike Evans and The Biggest Week 5 Fantasy Busts

Although Jacoby Brissett has 10 passing touchdowns, No. 8 among qualified quarterbacks, he is middle-of-the-pack in most passing metrics on Player Profiler. Touchdown regression was likely, and his eight-to-three Interceptable Throws to Money Throws ratio exemplifies that.

On the season, Mike Evans is tied for the lead among wide receivers with 12 Deep Targets, leads the position with 619 yards of  Total Target Distance and is averaging 20.4 (No. 5) yards per reception. Because of his role and shadow-ability, Evans is the ultimate high-ceiling/low-floor wide receiver.

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Fantasy Football Trends to Watch – Week 6 Edition

So far this season, D.J. Chark has notched 485 receiving yards and five touchdowns. His opportunity notably continues to rise in the Jacksonville offense. Isolating his last three games, the second year pro ranks third-overall with 357 Air Yards, while seeing 24 targets.

Jordan Howard ranks slightly ahead of Miles Sanders in most efficiency metrics, but Sanders’ value as a pass catcher keeps him relevant in this offense. With a 44.8-percent (No. 32 among qualified running backs) Opportunity Share, Sanders remains in play as a flex option in most weeks.

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Gerald Everett Awakening and Other Week 5 Waiver Targets

In the last two weeks Gerald Everett trails only Austin Hooper in tight end Target Distance. In that span of time Jared Goff targeted Everett 19 times, which he converted into 12 receptions and 180 receiving yards. He has emerged as the lead pass catching tight end in an offense that is throwing the ball 45.3 times per game, No.4 overall.

When Sammy Watkins left the game, it created an opening for Byron Pringle. He made the most of his opportunity. This UDFA has managed to stick on an NFL roster, the Chiefs’ NFL roster no less, and now has found a way to playing time. In Week 5 Pringle did much more than just soak up snaps, he was targeted 9 times by Patrick Mahomes, which resulted in 103 receiving yards.

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Week 5 Lessons Learned: Will Fuller and Allen Robinson Regression Extravaganza

Everyone knew it was coming, but few could’ve predicted a 14-217-3 line for Will Fuller in the biggest get right game of the season. Fuller saw 16 targets against a ragged Atlanta secondary that has been so bad, folks are calling for Dan Quinn’s job. Headed to Kansas City next week, look for Fuller to stay relevant.

Allen Robinson enjoyed a bounce-back on a day where massive scores overshadowed a Raiders upset in London. In a season of backups outperforming incumbent starters, Daniel has wisely locked onto the Bears’ best offensive weapon. An upcoming schedule full of potent offenses (NO, LAC, @PHI, DET, @LAR) should spell negative, pass-heavy game script and continued success.

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Wide Receiver vs. Cornerback Matchups to Target: Week 5

Josh Gordon has been up and down from a fantasy perspective this season, but this is finally the week that gamers have been waiting for. Against Josh Norman and Washington’s No. 29 ranked Pass DVOA, per Footballoutsiders, Gordon is a lock button play in Week 5.

With the expectation of increased volume in Davante Adams’ absence, Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s 10.9 (No. 49) Fantasy Points Per Game is a conservative floor this week. Chidobe Awuzie is averaging 12 (No. 52) Fantasy Points Per Game Allowed and has three games this season where he’s allowed 10 or more fantasy points to WRs.

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It’s Still Too Early To Drop O.J. Howard

After O.J. Howard’s extremely disappointing start to the season, frustrated owners who had to spend a fourth or fifth round pick on him in fantasy drafts are ready to bail. With an impeccable athletic profile and a history of past production, no tight end on anyone’s waiver wire should offer the potential that Howard has.

While Howard has only seen twelve (tied for No. 27 among qualified tight ends) targets, he has continued to remain on the field. More importantly, he has remained an active participate in the Buccaneers passing game. Howard is ninth among all tight ends in both Snap Share and Route Participation.

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The Long Gain: Bargain Running Backs to Target Week 5

Last season, Melvin Gordon put out two strong showings against the Broncos. While he may be in a bit more of a time share with Austin Ekeler once he returns, we can’t overlook Gordon’s ability to command a significant Opportunity Share.

Over his last three games, David Montgomery has averaged 19.7 touches and 72.0 yards per game. What he’s lacking is touchdown upside, which he has a chance to reach this week against the Oakland Raiders. This is the week Montgomery starts to look like the RB1 many fantasy gamers expected him to be.

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Leveraging the NFL’s most volatile pass-catchers for fantasy football upside

Aside from the massive target share and positive TD regression, additional metrics signal that a George Kittle boom game looms large. He has three (No. 4 among qualified tight ends) red zone receptions, ranks fifth among TEs with 101 yards after the catch and sports a 100-percent True Catch Rate. His matchup this week against Cleveland isn’t one to shy away from, with the Browns ranking right outside the top 10 in fantasy points allowed to the position.

Name three players on the same NFL team who each have a team-high 31 targets. The correct answer is Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel. Of the three, Samuel is the player who can be acquired on the cheap that provides week-winning upside. The Panthers average 40 pass plays per game (No. 7) and Samuel ranks No. 8 with 471 yards of total Target Distance.

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DraftKings Value Plays and GPP Targets for Week 5

The Jets allowed at least 250 passing yards in each of their first three games, including 300-yard outings from Tom Brady and Baker Mayfield. With ownership likely to gravitate towards Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson, Carson Wentz provides a solid GPP pivot in Week 5.

Playing as three point home favorites against the Arizona Cardinals, Week 5 is the time to fire up Joe Mixon. Arizona ranks first in seconds per play, while Cincinnati ranks seventh. This uptempo play style raises the ceiling for all skill position players in this contest. Playing as a home favorite, against a struggling defense, Mixon remains a solid GPP target on this slate.

deshaun-watson-fantasy-football

Why Deshaun Watson Bounces Back: Lock Button Plays for Week 5

Deshaun Watson has thrown for under 200 yards in two of his last three games, but this is the blowup week. The Falcons defense is near the bottom of the league in points against, and allowed Marcus Mariota to throw for three touchdowns last week.

It’s outrageous that Austin Hooper is still so underrated. He is top-five among tight ends in targets, receptions, receiving yards, Completed Air Yards, yards after the catch, Target Distance and Target Separation. Not only is he seeing volume, he is as efficient as they come.