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Locks and Stayaway Plays for Fantasy Football Week 1

Week one of the NFL regular season has finally arrived. Stephon Diggs & Leonard Fournette headline NFL Week 1 fantasy football start-sit picks based on advanced stats, metrics & analytics player profiles.

Fournette’s first matchup is on the road against one of the best defenses in the league. Only 10 teams allowed fewer rushing yards per game than Houston last year, and that number should only improve with a healthy J.J. Watt.

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3 Post-Hype Sleeper Picks for Fantasy Football Dynasty Leagues

Due to seriously deflated ADP’s, Malcolm Mitchell, Tyler Boyd and Tyler Lockett are the post hype sleeper picks of 2017. Mitchell is tied to the GOAT, Tom Brady and has and additional 160 targets available with the absence of Julian Edelman.

Don’t forget about the two Tylers. Tyler Boyd and the Cincinnati Bengals are primed for a season of positive touchdown regression, and Tyler Lockett has the metrics, efficiency and QB to be a dynasty star in the making.

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Jacksonville Fantasy Team Outlook: Run and Hide

This off-season the Jaguars made moves foreshadowing a run-heavy approach to their offense in 2017. With a sub-par offensive line and below average quarterback play a run heavy scheme will be the death knell to all fantasy players on the Jaguars.

While players like Leonard Fournette, Allen Robinson, and Marqise Lee certainly have intriguing athletic metrics suggestive of elite fantasy ceilings, their offensive scheme and quarterback play will result in capped production in 2017.

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Using Game Script to Identify Fantasy Football Value Plays and Bust Candidates

Do you remember the Super Bowl, that game where Atlanta squandered a 25-point lead in the second half? Down huge, the Patriots were forced to throw and throw and throw some more. The real Super Bowl MVP James White scored 45.9 points, meanwhile LeGarrette Blount scored 3.1 points. Because game script.

Melvin Gordon: less than half of his 2016 carries came with a lead — that will likely change this season. Dalvin Cook lands on the Vikings who face a soft schedule in 2017 and get to jumpstart their fantasy season against the Saints in week 1.

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Is Devonta Freeman fantasy football’s most over-drafted running back?

Of Freeman’s close to 300 touches in 2016, only 75 came with the Falcons trailing. That kind of dominance is generally unsustainable year to year. If the Falcons point differential closes in 2017, that means less touches for the front-running Devonta Freeman this season.

In 2017, Devonta Freeman will be competing with one of the most explosive running backs in the league for a dwindling share of running back touches this season, and that guy is a first round pick in fantasy football? Good luck with that.

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Final 53 Deadline Fallout: Sammie Coates, Phillip Dorsett & Derek Carrier Traded

It’s never a good look when a player is traded days before the start of the regular season. But when some of these recent trades involve long-time favorites of the Underworld, optimistic speculation has no choice but to run rampant.

Sammie Coates will benefit from the presence of 2016 first round pick Corey Coleman and the super-efficient Kenny Britt, mainly because he won’t need to see a ton of volume to be effective with those players in the fold. He also offers much more in the way of explosive upside as Cleveland’s third receiver than any of the team’s other options.

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DeVante Parker Checks All the Boxes of the Immanent Breakout Wide Receiver

DeVante Parker was a darling of the fantasy football draft community just two years ago. Two underwhelming seasons later and fantasy owners have forgotten about his potential. Finally coming off injury and reports are that Parker has dedicated himself to his craft.

2017 is the ultimate buy low opportunity to get DeVante Parker in fantasy football. His player profile features outstanding advanced stats, metrics, and analytics.

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Zach Ertz: The Silent Winner of the Jordan Matthews Trade

When most people think of Zach Ertz they will usually mention how he seemingly only produces in the month of December, but Ertz was a featured part of the offense in 2016 as his 106 targets were the 5th most for a tight end and he was 1 of only 6 tight ends saw over 100 targets.

Zach Ertz’s 78 receptions, 816 yards, and 4 touchdowns were good for TE1 numbers, as Ertz finished No.3 in the league with 13.1 fantasy points per game. Zach Ertz possess the upside to best those numbers in 2017.

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Fantasy Bias: How to Recognize & Overcome Fatal Fantasy Flaws

Bias in the fantasy football world is crippling. Vividness bias occurs when a recent performance skews the opinion on a player too much in either the positive or negative direction. Recency bias causes the fantasy owner to assess a player with extra emphasis on recent events.

My personal favorite, “My Guy” bias, is when a fantasy owner cannot think objectively about one of their favorite players. Let’s take a look at the fantasy players that are most affected by bias in current seasonal drafts.

dez-bryant-fantasy-football

Efficient Touchdown Metronome Dez Bryant is Back

Once upon a time, Dez Bryant scored 10 or more touchdowns in three consecutive seasons. A feat only matched by a few Hall of Famers. Michel Irvin did it just once.

Counter intuitively, no Ezekiel Elliott combined with difficult match-ups is good for Dez Bryant, because pass volume would spike in that case. Draft him with confidence in the late first round.