Air Yards DFS Value Index – Week 17

by Edward DeLauter, January 2, 2021

Calvin Ridley continues his reign as the Air Yards play if you are looking to pay up at the position. This is Ridley’s sixth consecutive appearance in this article dating back to Week 12. Since then, he has failed to finish outside of the top 25 receivers in fantasy points scored each week. He has also flashed WR1 overall upside. He remains a strong play again this week.

Jerry Jeudy’s usage in the Broncos offense saw a huge boon last week. His Air Yards had taken a hit after the rookie wide receiver suffered an ankle injury in Week 12. He made up for his lost opportunities in Week 16, seeing 15 targets and 180 Air Yards. Unfortunately, despite this monster usage, he only finished with 12.1 (No. 35 among qualified wide receivers) fantasy points. Assuming he is fed again, look for him to straighten out the drop issues and perhaps be a week winner in DFS.

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2020’s Lessons Learned: A Season in Review

by Tyler Strong, January 2, 2021

There was much skepticism surrounding Josh Allen and the Bills offense coming into 2020. He finished the season as fantasy football’s QB1. The run-first approach many predicted resulted in the team ranking top-15 in pass attempts per game, and Allen ranked No. 7 among qualified quarterbacks with 547 pass attempts and No. 2 with 84 Red Zone Attempts. Doesn’t sound too run-heavy after all.

It became abundantly clear over the course of the season that it didn’t really matter what quarterback you selected this year. It only mattered if they could run. Jalen Hurts dropped into starting lineups in the home stretch and was the QB3 over the final three weeks of the season, accounting for 238 rushing yards and a rushing score to go along with 847 passing yards and five scores through the air. He would’ve been the QB23 over the same period without those ever-important rushing numbers.

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Weighted Opportunities DFS Value Index – Week 17

by Sean McClure, January 1, 2021

Ezekiel Elliott is not the 20-point lock that he used to be, but he still been a reliable producer across most of this year. Despite some struggles in the second half of the season, he averages 14.8 (No. 14 among qualified running backs) Fantasy Points per Game. With his price dropping down to $6,500, this might be the cheapest he will be in his prime. With Dallas’ defense likely to turn the game to a shootout, he has both a solid floor and high upside.

With a potent offense and a horrid defense, the Titans should provide a number of opportunities for Duke Johnson to get involved. In addition, it is possible the team lowers David Johnson’s workload due to his injury history and lack of game importance. Duke is exactly the kind of unreliable, cheap running back that could end up as a big win. At close to the minimum, he has a chance to provide value in all formats.

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Analyzing 2020 Rookie Wide Receivers – The Five Most Productive

by Corbin Young, December 31, 2020

Along with numerous opportunities, Justin Jefferson also ranks highly in several efficiency metrics. He boasts a +24.8 (No. 8 among qualified wide receivers) Production Premium with 11.2 (No. 4) Yards Per Target and averages 16.0 (No. 9) Yards per Reception. Heading into 2021, he will demolish his past 2020 ADP and likely rank as a high-end WR2 pushing WR1 territory. He made a strong argument as Minnesota’s top wide receiver and the best in this rookie class.

Through 12 games in 2020, Brandon Aiyuk averages 15.4 (No. 17) Fantasy Points per Game on 60 (No. 30) receptions, 748 (No. 35) receiving yards, and seven (No. 17) total touchdowns with a 10.6-percent Touchdown Rate. Seeing the discrepancy in Fantasy Points per Game and receiving production tells us that the high Touchdown Rate boosted his fantasy production. Imagine what his fantasy production would look like if he maintained a similar pace to his most productive six-game stretch over a full season.

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Air Yards DFS Value Index – Week 16

by Edward DeLauter, December 27, 2020

Calvin Ridley has transformed into the Air Yards Value king over the course of the past two weeks. During this time, he has seen over 200 Air Yards and at least 12 targets in each game. He finished as the WR3 in Week 14 and the WR1 in Week 15. Somehow, despite this production, Ridley is not the highest priced receiver on the slate. Exploit this error by DraftKings and make Ridley a mainstay across all formats.

Jerry Jeudy doesn’t seem to be the same after suffering an ankle injury in Week 12. Since then, he has averaged under 50 Air Yards per game. Prior to week 12, he averaged over 100 Air Yards per game. On the off chance that he just needed some additional time for the ankle to get fully healthy he is worth a tournament dart throw. However, beware that his recent usage suggests a different trend for his fantasy potential.

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Leveraging the NFL’s Most Volatile Receivers for GPP Upside in Week 16

by Matthew M. Stevens, December 26, 2020

One bust week and one boom week earned Quez Watkins his Weekly Volatility score of 8.3, which ranks No. 24 among qualified wide receivers. It’s a sign of things to come from the sixth-round pick out of Southern Miss. At the stone minimum of $3,000 on DraftKings, he offers gamers salary relief and flexible roster construction coupled with upside. And at low projected rostership, he’s also a leverage play in large-field GPPs.

Chase Claypool’s recent streak of bust games figures to end sooner than later given his volatile nature. While JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson dink and dunk with short passes from Ben Roethlisberger, Claypool leads the team with a 29.4-percent (No. 32 among qualified wide receivers) Air Yards Share and 25 (No. 5) Deep Targets. And priced at a salary of $5,900 with a fantasy ceiling of 40 points, he offers an intriguing play.

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Dynasty Market Movers: Week 15 Report

by Steve Smith, December 26, 2020

Tony Pollard made good on his shot at a lead role following Ezekiel Elliott’s surprise inactive designation in Week 15. Playing 92.9-percent of the snaps versus the 49ers, Pollard rushed a dozen times for 132 total yards and two touchdowns, going six of nine in the passing game. He was the fantasy RB1 on the week. He gained 22.81 Lifetime Value points to rise from RB37 to RB27 on the dynasty rankings.

With his ankle injury nagging and with high postseason hopes, the Saints opted to place Michael Thomas on injured reserve heading into Week 15. Obviously, this ends his availability for dynasty leagues in 2020. Hopefully a return to form in the post season can help to rejuvenate his dynasty stock. For now, the soon to be 28-year old is among the biggest losers Lifetime Value points, slipping from WR8 to WR11 on the rankings .

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The Infirmary- PlayerProfiler’s Week 16 Injury Report

by The “Mad Chatter” Ryan MK, December 26, 2020

Melvin Gordon is a great play this week with Phillip Lindsay out. Gordon has played quietly well this season, ranking No. 14 among qualified running backs with 173 carries, No. 12 with 814 rush yards and No. 10 with nine total touchdowns. He also ranks in the top-13 at the position in Route Participation, Evaded Tackles and Big Runs. Gordon is a great value in DFS this weekend at $5600.

Christian McCaffrey will once again miss time, leaving the handcuff-of-the-year, Mike Davis, to do his thing. However, the Washington defense is stout versus the run. Speaking of the Washington Football Team, it appears likely they will be without Terry McLaurin. Now that everyone is finally coming to terms with Logan Thomas as a bonafide tight end, what better week to have him in a lineup.

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Top DFS Flex Value Plays for Week 16

by Taylor Smith, December 26, 2020

Jamison Crowder has once again separated himself as the alpha receiver for the Jets after hauling in six balls for 66 yards in their first win of the season. The Browns rank No. 25 in Defensive Passing DVOA and their slot CB Kevin Johnson is one of their weakest links, allowing big games to Golden Tate, Corey Davis, and Tyler Boyd this season. Crowder is a much better play on DK thanks to his low pricing and their full-PPR format. 

XFL DFS cheat code Donald Parham is finally getting his shot in the NFL this week with Hunter Henry on the COVID list. Parham isn’t in play on FD due to his price, but he’s the stone-minimum on DK at $2500. His pricing makes him viable as a Flex option if you want to pay up for Chiefs stacks including Travis Kelce. He also correlates well in Chargers stacks given their high team total (26.0) and his projected red zone role. 

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Week 15 Usage Rates: Start Jalen Hurts And Tyler Higbee In Fantasy Football

by Josh Kellem, December 24, 2020

Jalen Hurts is a rare high-floor, high-ceiling fantasy asset. The matchup is exploitable this week, too. Up against a Cowboys defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, including a three-touchdown performance by Nick Mullens last week, and ranking as the 11th-worst pass DVOA, Hurts is in what #fantasyfootball Twitter calls a smash spot. Cowboys-Eagles have the fifth-highest implied point total of the week as well.

Darnell Mooney has scored in consecutive games, totaling at least a 73.0-percent Snap Share and 27 routes run in each outing. Mooney’s Target Rate last week was 18.5-percent as well. The Bears average 40.7 (No. 8) Team Pass Plays per Game and face off against the Jaguars this week — a defense allowing the ninth-most PPR fantasy points to opposing receivers and ranking as the league’s worst pass DVOA.

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