Contract Year Players Who Are Fantasy Bargains in 2020

by Neil Dutton, July 7, 2020

With Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, Keenan Allen should still command plenty of looks. He was inside the top ten with 831 (No. 10 among qualified wide receivers) Completed Air Yards and 368 (No. 9) Yards after the Catch despite playing with a quarterback in Phillip Rivers who finished outside the top 15 with a 7.2 (No. 16) Accuracy Rating. We have a unique opportunity to take a player who may be one of the last true target hogs at the wide receiver position as a low-end WR2. That is a bargain.

Gerald Everett wasn’t as flashy as Tyler Higbee, but before the injury that opened the door for Higbee, he was having a pretty good season. He finished the year with a 14.5-percent (No. 9) Hog Rate. The fact that he only scored two touchdowns obviously hurt him a great deal from a fantasy point of view, but despite this, he put in four top 12 scoring weeks between Weeks 4-10. Plus, and this does bear mentioning, he is super athletic.


Why Modified Zero RB is the Optimal Draft Strategy for 2020

by Ryan Markle-Klapp, July 3, 2020

Similar to 2019, this season offers multiple running back options in the later rounds of fantasy drafts. While the high-end backs are worth their price, there is enough value late that wide receiver can still be the focus early on. According to current ADP, Chris Carson and Mark Ingram are once again going in the fifth round or later. Derrius Guice, a player with compelling metrics, is going in the seventh round. Though there is history of injury and competition in Washington, Guice is a prime breakout candidate.

Not only does this running back rookie class ooze talent, but there is also depth. Zack Moss, Anthony McFarland and Joshua Kelly are late-round rookies with intriguing player profiles. They also have an opportunity to make an instant impact given their situations. Moss and Kelly will have opportunity right away and McFarland is a James Conner injury away from becoming Ben Roethlisberger’s best friend. These players can be added to the list of names to target in the later rounds to fill out depth at the position.


Which Teams Will See the Biggest Rushing Volume Increases in 2020?

by Ikey Azar, July 3, 2020

Joe Mixon is among the most talented running backs in the NFL. He finished No. 1 among qualified running backs with 103 Evaded Tackles. He also finished with a 32.9-percent (No. 4) Juke Rate, and 576 (No. 2) Yards Created. Entering his contract year with the additions of Joe Burrow and last year’s injured first round pick Jonah Williams, Mixon is primed for a top ten fantasy finish.

The Chargers selected Justin Herbert with the No. 6 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, but he’s initially expected to ride the bench in the early going. In Tyrod Taylor’s three seasons starting for the Bills, he averaged a 94-525-5 line as a rusher. He also finished as a top 10 fantasy QB in 2016 with Lynn as his offensive coordinator, so there’s familiarity there. If Taylor were to start the entire season, he would be hard-pressed to hit 500 pass attempts as part of a slow, conservative group. 


Biggest #SFBX Movers in the PlayerProfiler Rankings

by Kyle Dvorchak, July 3, 2020

Much like the running backs, any receiver with a shot at No. 1 duties gets a massive boost in their rankings in the #SFBX format. With Deebo Samuel set to miss Week 1 and a push to start the year on the PUP, Brandon Aiyuk has a legitimate shot at being the top wide receiver on an efficient offense. The Arizona State product posted an 82nd-percentile College Dominator Rating on top of an 87th-percentile College Target Share. At 6-0 and 205-pounds, Aiyuk has the profile and size to earn an alpha role in his rookie season.

Coming out of Alabama, Irv Smith was a dynamic prospect. He possessed above-average speed even when factoring in his 6-2, 242-pound bowling ball frame. He also posted 16.1 (87th-percentile) college yards per reception by dominating defenders with his quickness. His upside is taking over for Kyle Rudolph as the TE1 on a Minnesota team that desperately needs a target opposite Adam Thielen. The Scott Fish Bowl rankings recognize that volume-based upside and give him a boost.


Undervalued #SFBX Quarterback Targets: The Rise of Checkdown Charlies

by Clint Hale, July 2, 2020

In standard scoring leagues, Drew Brees is barely a QB1 due to his inability to add any rushing upside. However, in the Scott Fish Bowl, his best qualities are amplified. In the switch from FFPC to #SFBX scoring settings in terms of 2019 statistics, he saw a +3.7 Fantasy Points per Game bump. It feels gross to press the draft button on a 41.5 year old quarterback, but Brees has value on par with the best Konami code quarterbacks in #SFBX settings.

Derek Carr’s new low-risk style is a turnoff in leagues with standard scoring settings, with him providing little upside for explosive plays. However, #SFBX is no standard league, so Carr’s fear of going deep and avoidance of turnovers makes him a possible boom rather than a bust. With Marcus Mariota’s looming presence in Las Vegas worrying timid drafters, Carr’s perceived value is a questionable QB2, but his advanced stats and metrics reveal he will be a QB1 in the 2020 Scott Fish Bowl.


Does the 2020 Running Back Draft Class Stack Up Historically?

by Steve Smith, July 2, 2020

The 2017 RB class has an average College Dominator rating of 32-percent, three percent higher than the 2020 class average. In the first three rounds of the draft, 2017 RBs average out at 34.5-percent. This eclipses the 31-percent mark of the 2020 class. Of the RBs drafted in 2017, 38.5-percent (10 out of 26) had a Dominator greater than 35-percent. The 2020 RB class has five players (29.4-percent) above this mark: Jonathan Taylor, Cam Akers, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Zack Moss, and Eno Benjamin.

The 2020 class as a group has an average Speed Score of 103.9 overall and 108.3 for players drafted in the first three rounds. Seven out of the 10 rookies drafted by Day 3 of 2020 have Speed Scores over 100, with Ke’Shawn Vaughn’s 103.5 (74th-percentile among qualified running backs) being the floor. Only three RBs had Speed Scores higher than Vaughn’s for the first three rounds of the 2017 draft: Leonard Fournette, Joe Mixon, and D’Onta Foreman.


How to use PlayerProfiler Metrics to Spot Breakout Tight Ends

by Akash Bhatia, July 2, 2020

Athleticism matters a great deal for predicting fantasy success at the tight end position. Height-Adjusted Speed Score is the most important athleticism metric, followed by the agility drills (3-cone and 20-yard shuttle) that comprise the Agility Score and explosion exercises (broad/vertical jump) that comprise the Burst Score. Metrics such as Catch Radius, Athleticism Score, and SPARQ-x also do a good job of summarizing a player’s overall athleticism and predicting a tight end’s chances of NFL success.

Albert Okwuegbunam is intriguing. We don’t have his Catch Radius, and his 11.8 Yards per Reception fell just below the threshold we look for, but his 129.6 (99th-percentile among qualified tight ends) Speed Score and 31.2-percent (90th-percentile) College Dominator Rating indicate that he is poised to be a fantasy stud.


How to Navigate a Best Ball Draft Using Robust RB

by The Podfather, July 1, 2020

Pick 1.02 offers the best opportunity at a well-executed Robust RB draft strategy in a Best Ball league. With the run-oriented Jason Garrett’s arrival, Daniel Jones’ continued development, and significant offensive line improvements, generational talent Saquon Barkley should challenge Christian McCaffrey in both the rushing and receiving departments.

Targets are “earned” unless your name is Leonard Fournette. After posting 316 (No. 2 among qualified running backs) Weighted Opportunities last season, Fournette enters a contract year at the peak of his powers and yet is somehow still available in the third round of fantasy drafts.


Three Wide Receiver Sells Based on Red Zone Touchdown Regression

by Taylor Williams, June 30, 2020

There’s no denying Marvin Jones ran hot in the touchdown department last season. He caught eight red zone touchdowns when his expected total would have been slightly over five given his opportunity metrics. Eight red zone touchdowns tied him with Michael Thomas for most among qualified wide receivers. In PPR leagues, taking away three touchdowns means at least 21 points come off the board, dropping Jones from WR28 to WR36.

It is unlikely DeVante Parker will be as efficient at translating red zone opportunities into touchdowns in 2020 as he was last year. With the return of Preston Williams and further development of Mike Gesicki, there’s reason to doubt Parker will garner even the same level of opportunity this year. Having said that, this is still a team projected to be among the top in the league in pass attempts with a consolidated target breakdown. Parker will still be a viable fantasy option, just don’t expect the same touchdown output.


Running Back Handcuffs with Standalone Fantasy Value

by Tyler Strong, June 30, 2020

The investments in Cleveland’s offensive line and a new coach in Kevin Stefanski who funnels the offense through the running backs are green lights for Kareem Hunt. Even with all the upside, there’s a small chance he is dangled as a trade chip mid-season, which would likely see him enter an even more valuable role as a team’s clear RB1. There are too many avenues for Hunt to outperform ADP. He makes a great first RB to target after smashing wide receivers in the early-to-mid rounds.

Kenyan Drake performed well as a Cardinal, but has a small sample size as a lead dog and was buoyed by touchdown variance down the stretch. In fact, Chase Edmonds outperformed Drake in True Yards per Carry, Yards per Touch, Breakaway Run Rate, basically everything. The two players should be closer in FFPC ADP (RB9 vs RB50) based on their similarity in skill. One player benefits from recency bias, and the other had an unfortunately timed injury. I’ll take Edmonds at the discount every time.