DeAndre Hopkins is not a superhero. There is no such thing as a quarterback-proof wide receiver. Poor YAC rates and quarterback play will plague Hopkins again in 2017.
DeAndre Hopkins is one of the most overrated fantasy football assets, and Hopkins’ advanced statistics & metrics profile points to an underwhelming 2017 season.
Every pick matters in fantasy. A failed prospect will not only lower your team output, but the opportunity cost will likely boost another team’s output. Avoid wide receiver value traps that seem harmless right now, but in reality, it could cost you games now and in the future.
The truth about Kelvin Benjamin’s underwhelming prospect profile is slowly starting to emerge. Benjamin is officially #BadAtFootball after his Production Premium, yards per target and catch rate fell outside the top-40 in each of his professional seasons.
With few off season additions to the team’s skill position core, the Detroit Lions know who their playmakers are. Both Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick are solid zero RB targets who both have the ability to finish as top 24 running backs.
Golden Tate is a consistent WR 2 going later in drafts that can help teams win in 2017. Marvin Jones presents intriguing late round upside, and Eric Ebron is ready to ascend as a top 10 tight end.
The Panthers will not want Cam Newton to stick his head into those scrums this season and risk another concussion, and Stewart owned and dominated on those carries last season. Stewart had a TD Rate of over 10-percent on carries against a stacked defensive line last season, one of the best marks in the NFL.
Like Jonathan Stewart, Lacy has shown he can both handle the load and break tackles to push it across the goal line. Lacy’s floor is probably higher than Stewart’s and it’s reflected in his higher ADP, but he also possesses a high TD upside because of his size and ability to break tackles against stacked formations.
My rankings, based on career averages, have Todd Gurley ranked higher than Melvin Gordon. Yet I keep drafting Gordon in my mock drafts. Is recency bias clouding my judgment? Or do I need to fix my rankings model? A dive into the advanced metrics helped me decide which third year back should be ranked higher.
Todd Gurley’s reputation as an whirling, hurdling playmaker masks an unfortunate truth: The advanced metrics indicate that Gurley is simply not good at avoiding tackles. That’s a problem.
Successful slot receivers in terms of fantasy football are few and far between. Not many teams have the quarterback, offensive scheme and talent at wide receiver to churn out fantasy relevant players in the slot, but as with everything there are the anomalies.
Often overlooked and under appreciated, Doug Baldwin has been a model of consistency for two consecutive seasons, notching 1,000-plus yards in 2015 and 2016, and an absurd 14 receiving touchdowns in 2015. He’s drawn 228 targets over those last two seasons, and has been one of the most efficient receivers during that span.
Since being drafted in the second round of the 2014 NFL Draft, Jordan Matthews has been one of the most productive receivers in the league. While he was a disappointment for fantasy owners in 2016, Jordan Matthews is being overlooked and he is a strong rebound candidate for the upcoming season.
The Eagles gave their receiving corps a makeover this offseason. Signing Alshon Jeffrey and Torrey Smith to play on the outside, pushing Nelson Agholor into a reserve role and moving Jordan Matthews back into his familiar role in the slot.
After losing multiple running backs to injury or inefficiency in 2016, Ty Montgomery was given an opportunity to play running back and did not disappoint. In fact, Montgomery was one of the most efficient running backs in the NFL last season.
Ty Montgomery has an exciting athletic profile, and the other backs in the Green Bay backfield simply do not pose major threats to his opportunity share. Everything points to an extreme fantasy football breakout in 2017.
Demaryius Thomas is a big-bodied wide receiver who overwhelmed NFL defensive backs, particularly after Peyton Manning took the controls in Denver in 2012. For the past five years Thomas has been a top-15 fantasy receiver, with most of those finishes in the top-5 overall of WRs in point per reception (PPR) formats.
Demaryius Thomas yards after the catch regression points to WR1 season. Thomas is a player you can snag in round 3 or 4 of year draft to give you two WR1s on your roster this season. Look for improved production out this top shelf player.
Golden Tate’s is a great value in fantasy football, and Tate’s advanced stats, metrics, and analytics profile suggests he will outperform his draft position. At pick 45, Tate will allows Zero RB drafters to win the flex position, the key to victory in 2017.
Golden Tate is a high target volume PPR player who wins after the catch with quickness and physical style of play. He isn’t a high touchdown number player but has maintained a high number of receptions and good yardage numbers in his three years with the Detroit Lions.