Meet the Metric – Pace of Play

by Corbin Young, April 12, 2021

The Cowboys led the NFL with 42.7 Team Pass Plays Per Game and a 2.51 Pace of Play. Before Dak Prescott’s injury, he ranked highly in a number of efficiency metrics with a +18.8 (No. 4 among qualified quarterbacks) Production Premium and 8.0 (No. 6) Adjusted Yards Per Attempt. A -4.77 (No. 27) Game Script mark indicated they often played from behind with their poor defense, which will lead to high passing opportunities once again in 2021 if that unit continues to struggle. 

We have Josh Allen out here exploding in 2020 in all the metrics even though Buffalo ranked lowly with a 2.14 (No. 28) Pace of Play. Buffalo averaged 38.9 (No. 13) Team Pass Plays Per Game, and Allen finished with 4,546 (No. 5) Passing Yards and 37 (No. 5) Passing Touchdowns. With the leap in fantasy production and efficiency paired with his rushing production, expect Allen to dominate again in 2021.

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Transaction Implication: Seattle Seahawks Extend Tyler Lockett

by Aaron Stewart, April 11, 2021

Tyler Lockett’s cap hit will be higher than any receiver that has signed a contract in the past twelve months. Among all NFL players, he will count more on the 2024 salary cap than Aaron Donald, the DPOY in three of the last four seasons, will for the division-rival Los Angeles Rams. Expect the Seahawks to move on from him after 2023 before he enters his age-32 season.

Can Lockett maintain his efficiency with another high-volume passing game role in 2021? His 75.8-percent (No. 9 among qualified wide receivers) Catch Rate, 93.5-percent (No. 9) True Catch Rate and low 3.8-percent (No. 60) Drop Rate didn’t leave fantasy points on the field. Capitalize on his 2020 season that saw high usage, WR1 productivity, and efficiency unusual for players that see the volume that he received.

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Underworld Rookie Mock Draft Recap #6

by Cody Carpentier, April 10, 2021

In a 2 QB rookie draft, one would expect it to start QB-QB-QB, and it did from 1.02-1.04. But at the 1.01, our guy Jay Dozier grabbed Najee Harris. After a month of disappointing pro days, Harris was actually one of the big winners after not testing athletically at either Alabama pro day.

With guys like Kellen Mond, Kyle Trask, and Mac Jones getting pushed up boards, it allows players like Jaylen Waddle and Devonta Smith to drop into the early/mid-second round. This is exciting for rookie draft value, which is the key in any draft, and is ultra important in 2021. The late-second to early-third round is the ideal draft position in 2 QB rookie drafts if you are set at the quarterback position.

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Transaction Implication: Sam Darnold Traded To The Panthers

by Aaron Stewart, April 9, 2021

Despite picking up Sam Darnold’s fifth-year option, Carolina’s commitment to him as the starter may be brusque. It’s no secret that Panthers owner David Tepper covets acquiring a franchise quarterback. If Darnold and his league-worst among qualified quarterbacks -67.40 EPA does not improve in his new destination, expect the Panthers to follow Miami’s lead regarding how they dealt with Josh Rosen, and move on as soon as possible.

With Curtis Samuel vacating 97 (No. 37) Targets and taking into account D.J. Moore’s 757 (No. 8) Unrealized Air Yards, there are opportunities in the Panthers 2021 offense for more production for Moore. His 2.27 (No. 12) Yards Per Route Run, +68.7 (No. 11) EPA, and 28.1-percent (No. 13) Dominator Rating displayed elite efficiency that can translate to a fantasy football bounceback in 2021.

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Underworld Rookie Mock Draft Recap #5

by Ray Marzarella, April 8, 2021

Without any athletic testing numbers, or even an official height and weight, Devonta Smith is the ultimate black box NFL prospect. But when dealing with a black box prospect who’s also a Heisman Trophy winner, we should be allowed to err on the side of the higher-end Best Comparable Player in the legendary Joe Horn. His Breakout Rating will be helped by his inevitable early round draft selection.

From being undrafted in our first SuperFlex/TE Premium outing to creeping into the fourth round last time and the second round this time, Kellen Mond is slowly working his way up in these mocks. Once the Elite Five signal callers are off the board, the placement of the remaining QBs will largely be determined by draft position/landing spot. The Texas A&M product has a bit of Konami Code appeal to him and can end up being a value by the end of this process.

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Offseason Dynasty Target – Kenny Golladay

by The “Mad Chatter” Ryan MK, April 7, 2021

Kenny Golladay went on a rampage during the 2019 season, leading all qualified wide receivers with 11 Total Touchdowns and totaling 1,190 (No. 6) Receiving Yards. Should fantasy gamers expect a year similar to 2019 on a new team and coming off of an injury? Probably not, but he’ll have a damn good year and a chance to build on it in 2022. That’s what makes this the perfect time to acquire him; his value won’t be this low again for a long while.

During the 2020 season, Daniel Jones receiver’s ranked in the bottom of the league in Target Separation and totaled 55 (No. 14) Dropped Passes. Despite that, he put up a respectable 73.7-percent (No. 21) True Completion Percentage. A bonafide No. 1 wideout is exactly what he needs. It’s critical for Jones to play well this year, and Golladay’s addition is a gift that should help the young quarterback achieve that goal.

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Dynasty Methods of Madness – Embrace the Fade

by The “Mad Chatter” Ryan MK, April 6, 2021

Every season features players who out-produce their ADP, revealing the fade to be fraudulent. Stefon Diggs and David Montgomery are prime examples from 2020 of players shunned by many. As everything in fantasy football, context matters. Sometimes it’s better to simply embrace the fade. 

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Meet the Metric – Accuracy Rating

by Neil Dutton, April 5, 2021

Quarterbacks with high Accuracy Ratings are a godsend to pass-catchers; these players will see a high dose of targets that they can actually do something with. A case in point is reigning league MVP Aaron Rodgers, who finished the 2020 campaign with a 7.9 (No. 3 among qualified quarterbacks) Accuracy Rating and led the league in delivering an 81.0-percent Catchable Pass Rate.

We should have high hopes for Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in 2021. He posted a 7.9 Accuracy Rating a year ago, the same as Aaron Rodgers and Teddy Bridgewater. He also delivered a Catchable Pass Rate of 80.3-percent in 2020. Only Rodgers and Drew Brees were better. Yet he managed a dismal 13.8 (No. 28) Fantasy Points per Game. Can we attach some blame to the players around him? With a -7.17 (No. 26) Supporting Cast Efficiency rating, you bet we can.

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