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Will Clyde Edwards-Helaire finish as a top five fantasy RB this year? No clue. Does it make sense given his pedigree and situation that he’s being drafted well behind the likes of Joe Mixon, Antonio Gibson, and Najee Harris based on Underdog ADP? No. His ceiling case is much easier to envision than one where he falls outside the top 15 RBs this year.

We’ve got no evidence that the Cowboys can’t get back to a similar level of offensive output this season with Dak Prescott, his wickedly talented trio of receivers, and Ezekiel Elliott all returning to beat up on a division that saw a 7-9 team make the playoffs last season. If Prescott is healthy, there’s an obvious ceiling case for Elliott, especially at the slight discount he can be had at in Underdog drafts right now.

We don’t give Antonio Brown enough credit for walking into Tampa Bay midseason and immediately making an impact. Brown finished with an 11.8 (No. 26) Half-PPR Fantasy Points per Game average through Week 17. He displayed a low floor, but in eight games, he provided more to best ball rosters than T.Y. Hilton, Jerry Jeudy, and others did over the whole season. Considering he now has an entire offseason to become more acclimated to the offense, there is a huge buy-low opportunity present.

Lamar Jackson’s rushing ability gives him an elite floor that is desirable in standard formats, but his lack of ceiling held Jackson to 55.2 (No. 10) Best Ball Points Added. The Ravens face the league’s best Game Script and play and the league’s slowest pace. Jackson isn’t required to rack up the production that other quarterbacks like Justin Herbert and Dak Prescott, even with his rushing volume. If the team’s pace doesn’t increase, Jackson paying off his QB4 price could be a mirage for believers.

There’s always the chance that a fear-based run wipes out more of a position than expected in a given SFB11 draft. This is why adaptation and improvisation are the words of the day. Though you’ll want to end up with one of our CORNERSTONE QBs if possible, it will be easier to overcome a run on elite QBs than it will to overcome a run of elite TEs, mainly due to the sheer volume of points being given up when passing on an elite option.

Eight quarterbacks were selected in the first round of this exercise. All of whom have some Konami Code to their game. And all of whom we’ve identified as the difference-making QBs we need to target in most seasonal league formats. But not all of these QBs should be considered first-round SFB11 values over certain skill position players given the structure of the rules. In fact, SFB11’s scoring settings boosts players like Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Kirk Cousins.

Zach Wilson is an NFL starter from day one on an ascending Jets offense supported by a revamped supporting cast featuring former first round pick Corey Davis and rookie Elijah Moore. Mac Jones has already narrowed the gap between himself and Cam Newton such that the two are reportedly in a full-blown QB competition to start training camp. It should not surprise anyone if the 2021 season ends and either Wilson or Jones are the highest valued player taken in the first round of this mock.

Jacob Harris has received some buzz lately, converting from wide receiver to tight end. He makes for an intriguing dynasty practice squad stash in the event he is able to make the conversion. Another player’s positional development that will be interesting to see is Demetric Felton. Cleveland’s rookie running back played in both the slot and behind the line of scrimmage in college. He may have a quicker path to fantasy relevance if he converts to wide receiver.

Given the SFB11 scoring rules, it almost seems they were designed specifically to emphasize the importance of each kick at the expense of the kicker’s overall upside. Instead of having the harmless upside of scoring five points, a 50-yard attempt now has an 8-point delta (five points for the make, but minus three for the miss). You actually have something to lose now. Fantasy’s safest position is no longer risk-free, and the best choice we can make is to fade the hype.

By round 11, you’ve theoretically filled out your entire starting lineup from each of the other positions. Drafting a kicker for stability is still a good idea if you wait for the right moment. Once your roster is filled out, you want players with high upside that would see a production premium in the event of an injury to the starter. Your kicker is likely to start every single game, so there isn’t as much volatility in expected points per game.

In 15 games last year, Kenyan Drake scored 10 (No. 10 among qualified running backs) total touchdowns and had 955 (No. 12) rushing yards. And the Cardinals brought James Conner in to fill that role. He’s going to get touches and goal line carries. He can easily outpace Drake’s production in those first three games, but even if he simply replicates it and manages to stay healthy, his trade value will double from his current ADP.

Raheem Mostert is the RB1 in San Francisco for now. But he’s on the last year of his deal, has trouble staying healthy, and Kyle Shanahan has a long history of turning unheralded running backs into fantasy gold. The 49ers spent two of their seven picks in this year’s draft on the running back position. With Jeff Wilson already injured, the path is illuminated for either Trey Sermon or Elijah Mitchell to get an opportunity right from the jump. And if they do, the schedule will be incredibly kind to them.

Any pick you make in earlier rounds has ramifications for later round selections; this is part of the opportunity cost. If you take Josh Jacobs at pick No. 45 as your RB3, this makes later round options such as Gus Edwards, Zack Moss, or A.J Dillon less impactful to your team. You become more likely to forgo them for receivers. If Jacobs is your first or second running back it’s more justifiable, but it becomes a question of floor vs. ceiling, and you are choosing the wrong answer.

There are several rushers with youth, pass catching and RB1 upside going rounds three through six in 2021. With two elite RB classes, 2017 and 2020, still at peak value, top end talents are being pushed into the dead zone. Gone are Leonard Fournette, Le’Veon Bell, Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon. Enter explosive options such as Miles Sanders, D’Andre Swift, and Travis Etienne.

Seeing Jerick McKinnon’s prevalence for the 49ers offense amidst injuries is important because it shows that there is a place of relevance for a pass-catching running back in San Francisco. While Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson were efficient with their targets, they did not receive enough to be top fantasy RBs. A physical runner and learned pass-catcher with Kyle Shanahan and Trey Lance’s trust is the key to unlocking an RB1 from the San Fran backfield.

RBs can quickly fall out of Kyle Shanahan’s favor. However, they can also quickly fall in favor, because he tends to utilize a “hot hand” approach more than a “bell cow” approach. Raheem Mostert and Wayne Gallman have the experience to heat up, while Trey Sermon has the size and Elijah Mitchell has the athleticism. However, will they be used enough in the passing game to warrant fantasy RB1 status?

Total QBR is not a relevant stat in predicting a quarterback’s fantasy football success. For example, in 2020, Drew Brees’ 74.5 Total QBR ranked No. 6 among qualified quarterbacks, but he finished the season averaging 18.0 (No. 15) Fantasy Points Per Game. This metric is more relevant in dynasty football leagues. Quarterbacks with low ratings in their Total QBR metric are likely replaced sooner rather than later.

Carson Wentz had a 33:7 touchdown-interception ratio back in 2017 and was an MVP candidate before tearing his ACL. With Frank Reich as his offensive coordinator, Wentz had a 75.8 (No. 3) Total QBR in 2017. Reich would leave for the Colts’ head coaching job and Wentz would struggle in his absence. If there’s one quarterback in the group who can turn around his Total QBR like Aaron Rodgers did last season, it’s Wentz.

David Montgomery was a fantasy hero in 2020, ending the year with a 17.5 (No. 6 among qualified running backs) Fantasy Points Per Game average. However, the team around him has changed considerably, especially in the backfield. PlayerProfiler’s advanced stats and metrics illuminate the reasons fantasy gamers need to proceed with caution.

With one RB1 fantasy finish in Fantasy Points Per Game already under his belt, Mongtomery is well on the way to being worth the cost it took to acquire him in 2019 rookie drafts. But unless he can prove that it doesn’t just take heavy volume for him to produce, Tarik Cohen and Damien Williams will ensure that he fails to repeat his RB1 finish from a season ago.