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The Steelers are simply a pass-happy team in general. Ben Roethlisberger is gone, Mitchell Trubisky (or maybe a rookie?) is in at quarterback. And more changes are sure to come for the Steelers offensive personnel. Maybe, maybe, we’ll see some shift in play-calling and overall philosophy as a result. However, this pass-heavy approach is something we’ve seen for years now in Pittsburgh. So it seems unlikely that they’d swing their pendulum fully toward a high-volume rushing attack.

Leave the Stone Age. Stop citing Najee Harris’ low raw efficiency numbers as a reason why he was overrated as a prospect or should be faded in dynasty. He was a great player in college and he’s a great player now, from both productivity and efficiency standpoints.

Game Scripts are clearly important in determining who to start each week in seasonal leagues. But understanding players’ roles in offenses are pivotal in drafts to determine just how dependent score is to fantasy performance. In this article, we identify some players who were affected in extreme fashion by specific Game Scripts.

In the future, we can analyze historical data for this issue. Is a player’s role in an offense sticky from year to year if they stick with the same team? Does that correlate highly with their fantasy efficiency as it did for some players in 2021? Play-by-play data and the resulting fantasy splits, available to us at PlayerProfiler, can help answer these questions to get ahead of teams’ game plans this offseason to avoid the narrative-dependent stat padders and to buy into the sustainable situations.

D.J. Chark didn’t play much in his rookie season. But, he broke out in 2019 to the tune of 73 receptions on 118 targets for 1,008 yards and eight touchdowns in 15 games. After finishing 2019 as the WR16 in fantasy football, he tumbled to a WR50 finish and was the WR42 on a per-game basis. That is not going to get the job done at all.

I personally believe that the 2019 D.J. Chark is closer to the real thing. Though his 2020 season was concerning, the 2019 season is the one we’ve seen him start and finish without a myriad of injuries. If he really is a receiver of the caliber he showed that year, and lands in a situation conducive to fantasy success, he will get back to putting big-time numbers. That scenario is very much in his range of outcomes, making him a buy in dynasty and best-ball leagues before free agency kicks off.

Simply, the Titans have one of the most run-happy offenses in the league, regardless of situation. It’s a bit of a chicken-or-the-egg question to ponder whether that philosophy would persist if Henry was not on the team (though their situational rush rate over expectation was still +8-percent in games he didn’t play last year), but he’s under contract for another three years. The Titans should remain one of the highest volume rushing teams in the NFL in 2022.

Very often, the decline for top-tier running backs comes suddenly and without warning. With that in mind, the performance that Derrick Henry gave us last year should be viewed as a gift. While still providing your fantasy teams with elite raw production, he whispered in the ears of anyone listening that the end is coming. It may come with one last 1,000-yard swan song at 4.1 yards per carry. But it’s better to be out early than late. The reign of King Henry is coming to end.

Using a first-round pick on a running back is not smart business in today’s NFL. But Rashaad Penny’s prospect profile warranted an early selection when he declared for the 2018 NFL Draft. The problem for Penny was that he could not beat out the incumbent Chris Carson. Though he did flash as a rookie with a couple of touchdowns and a 108-yard outing on 12 carries against the Los Angeles Rams, he registered 85 carries to 247 for Carson. The 2019 season was the year Penny showed his worth.

Rashaad Penny was a gifted running back when he entered the NFL, and still is. Injuries have gotten in the way of him shining the way he was supposed to like he did to close the 2021 season. With plenty of teams needing a running back in free agency, he will be a hot commodity. If he stays healthy, he will reward not only any NFL team who signs him but any fantasy gamer who acquires him. He is a buy in dynasty leagues as someone who will not cost a premium but has league-winning RB1 upside.

Turning up at the NFL Scouting Combine and presenting 1st percentile-sized hands is going to make you stand out, but not in the way that Kenny Pickett would have liked.
David Bell had a week he would like to forget and forget quickly. He posted a 4.65 40 time, the second-lowest among all participating wide receivers. Bell then doubled down on the disappointment with a 4.57 short shuttle.
Slade Bolden needed a strong week at the Combine to ensure that he would be known for more than just being the best buddy of Mac Jones of the Patriots. With the Combine in the rearview mirror, Bolden is best known for being the best buddy of Mac Jones.

The process of proving each element of a sexual assault in court is an imperfect, insensitive, invasive, man-made creation to stand in proxy of being able to actually decipher the truth. Its stated purpose is to ensure the liberty of alleged perpetrators is not vitiated barring a degree of evidence that is often impossible to amass.

Tweets like Adam Schefter’s look past this reality. They perpetrate a damaging narrative that survivors of sexual violence are lying unless they are able to meet the legal burden of proof. They minimise the impact of life-altering trauma in favour of the perspective of a plausibly exonerated perpetrator.

After running the ball the third-fewest times in the league in 2020, the Detroit Lions upped their rushing volume a bit last season under new head coach Dan Campbell. Two years ago, they averaged 22.9 attempts per game. In 2021, they ran the ball an average of 25.1 times per contest. That average ranked No. 21 in the NFL, and was a carry-and-a-half lower than the league-wide 26.6 average. In their ideal world, Detroit would probably run the ball more than they actually have.

I don’t want to overreact to one season of poor play. But at this point in D’Andre Swift’s NFL career, the 2021 season represents 50-percent of his games played and almost 60-percent of his total carries. I loved Swift the prospect as much as anyone.But let’s exercise some caution. Don’t crown him just yet.

In each of the last three years N’Keal Harry, Jalen Reagor and Rondale Moore have had underwhelming starts to their career despite excellent analytical prospect profiles. Each year the consensus has bequeathed different reasons why their lack of success was foreseeable. Harry could not separate. Reagor played in the Big 12 conference. Rondale Moore is too short. So should we now avoid every short player, non-separator or big 12 player?

Some may say we should simply view each player in their own context to determine what rules to apply. I would argue these players most likely failed because sometimes good prospects bust, and often the reasons don’t reveal themselves until after the fact, if at all.

Breece Hall’s resume is as sparkling as one a college running back could create. His tape and production already made him a nearly indestructible running back. But him blowing up the Combine was the last piece to make him a bulletproof prospect. To make matters even better, won’t turn 21 until May 31st, more than a month after he hears his name called. He should be the first running back to hear his name called among his class both in the NFL Draft and in upcoming fantasy drafts.

Whoa! Well, hello there Christian Watson! He may not have lit the college football landscape on fire the way Breece Hall did. But, he did manage to accumulate a robust College Dominator Rating/College YPR combo. Watson blew up the Senior Bowl with his dynamic skillset and then did the same at the Combine with his otherworldly athleticism. Doing so solidified him as a likely Day 2 draft pick at the minimum and possibly a first-round pick in late April. When it comes to winners of the Combine and the draft season, perhaps no player did so as emphatically.