The draft is a week away, so now is the perfect time to take a look back on the 2021 season. The 2021 season brought with it many surprises. Justin Tucker broke the record for the longest field goal, Antonio Brown had a meltdown, and some players outperformed their ADP. Drafting studs in the later round is the cheapest way to find fantasy football success, but it isn’t always easy. Let’s take a look at some quarterbacks who surprised us all by outperforming their ADP, and speculate on if they can repeat the same level of success next year.
No. 5) Justin Herbert
ADP: 70.5
Second-year sensation Justin Herbert continued to improve upon his 2020 Rookie of the Year season in 2021 by throwing for 5,014 yards and 38 touchdowns. Despite missing the playoffs, the Chargers still had a great year under a new head coach in Brandon Staley. They finished as a top 5 offense in both points for and yards under a new system. That’s pretty impressive and is hopefully a sign of things to come for Herbert and the Chargers. He had two games last season where he was the highest scoring QB. He scored 42.8 in Week 5 and 35.3 in Week 11, an immensely high ceiling for such a young QB.
Can He Do It Again?
Yes he could, and he should. The Chargers just extended Mike Williams, showing their trust in him as a weapon. We also know very well what Keenan Allen is capable of even if he is at the end of his career. They have two top 5 WRs in terms of route wins in 2021.
Does Justin Herbert have the best WR duo in the league?🤔
WR Total Route Wins:
1. Keenan Allen – 270 ⚡
2. Stefon Diggs – 267 😤
3. Michael Pittman – 262 👀
4. Jaylen Waddle – 257 🐬
5. Mike Williams – 246 ⚡#nfl #football #fantasyfootball pic.twitter.com/4jwWRmPa5C— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) April 10, 2022
Austin Ekeler is one of the premiere pass-catching RBs in the league. The Chargers also went out and signed TE Gerald Everett who should provide another interesting option in the offense. Josh Palmer should also hopefully take a step forward in his second year. The offense has tons of weapons for Justin Herbert to find, plus he can run the ball too, sporting the third-most red zone carries among QBs last season. The weapons are there, and 2022 will be Year 2 under Brandon Staley. All positive signs for growth for the players and the team as a whole.
No. 4) Jalen Hurts
ADP: 91.5
Jalen Hurts was the 11th or 12th QB taken on average with an ADP of 91.5 in 2021. So while he technically barely outperformed his ADP, he also missed two games and still finished top 10. Hurts averaged 21.4 (No. 6 among qualified quarterbacks) Fantasy Points Per Game. If Hurts was able to play those two games and scored at least his average PPG, he would’ve finished with 364 points. That is only 10 points less than Patrick Mahomes, and good for No. 5 overall. Hurts was electric in his second season, leading all QBs in fantasy points per dropback, rushing yards, and rushing TDs.
Jalen Hurts is only the 7th QB in his first two seasons to have:
🦅4,000+ pass yards
🦅1,000+ rush yards pic.twitter.com/Shrtk8RGgp— PFF PHI Eagles (@PFF_Eagles) April 16, 2022
Can He Do It Again?
3 months ago, Hurts underwent ankle surgery. It is reported that he will be fully recovered by the start of OTAs. So assuming he can stay healthy, he should definitely be able to repeat, and probably do even better. Not only is Hurts talented, but the Eagles themselves should get stronger next season. Hurts led the Eagles to the playoffs last season after finishing 9-8. The offense had the 12th-most points for (444) and the 14th-most yards (6119), both of those should go up next year. The Eagles have two first-round picks and if they use one on a WR, Hurts will have a great arsenal of weapons. Assuming he takes a third-year step forward and Devonta Smith takes a second-year leap, the expectations are high going into 2022.
No. 3) Matthew Stafford
ADP: 89
2022 Dynasty Rank: QB17
Of course the QB who has thrown for less than 4,000 yards only one time in a full season during his career would go to Sean McVay’s Rams and emerge a Super Bowl Champion. McVay, Matthew Stafford, and Cooper Kupp were a match made in heaven as the offense finished top 10 in both points for and yards. Stafford and Kupp had a special connection all year and they were vital to each other’s success.
On the final drive of the Super Bowl, when everyone knew he was going to Cooper Kupp, Stafford was 4/4 for 47 yds to Kupp, including the championship winning TD. #snatchingsouls 💀 pic.twitter.com/DBeYzjcsAE
— Rams Rewind (@RewindRams) April 16, 2022
Kupp finished the year with a receiving Triple Crown, and Stafford had his best year since 2012. All of this came in his first year on the Rams, becoming the only QB other than Tom Brady to win a Super Bowl in their first year on a new team.
Can He Do It Again?
Why not? 2022 will be his second year on the Rams, so it makes sense for him to do better. Tom Brady threw for 700 more yards in his second season with the Buccaneers than he did in his first year. The Rams will also be getting Cam Akers back, meaning opposing defenses will have to key in more on the run than they had to with Darrell Henderson and Sony Michel, potentially opening up the pass game even more. Losing Andrew Whitworth will hurt, but there’s no reason to bet against the defending Super Bowl Champion QB who nearly threw for 5,000 yards.
No. 2) Tom Brady
ADP: 81.5
2022 Dynasty Rank: QB19
Every year, Tom Brady is expected to decline in performance. Every year, he doesn’t. The GOAT does as the GOAT always has, and somehow shocked us all by throwing for 5,316 yards last season. Not only was that the most yards in the league, but also the most that Brady has ever thrown in a season. He did that at the age of 44. Take a look at the passing portion of his advanced stats & metrics profile last season.
Brady led all QBs in basically every important category. Last season was an insanely productive one for the GOAT.
Can He Do It Again?
Can he throw for 5,000 yards again? Considering he has only done it twice, probably not. But I’m not gonna bet against Tom Brady, ever. Even if Antonio Brown is gone, Chris Godwin was tagged and Mike Evans is still there. The Buccaneers also signed Russell Gage. Plus, let’s be honest, Rob Gronkowski will return. It does make sense to temper expectations though as Todd Bowles will be the head coach, not Bruce Arians. No matter what though, the Buccaneers should still win the NFC South and be good, meaning Brady will be good too.
No. 1) Joe Burrow
ADP: 103
Coming into the 2021 season, the Cincinnati Bengals had the same odds to win the Super Bowl as the New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars. It made sense too. Joe Burrow‘s 2020 season came to a crashing end when he tore his ACL and MCL in Week 11. And instead of bolstering the offensive line that led to Burrow’s injury, the Bengals front office decided to reunite him with LSU teammate Ja’Marr Chase with the No. 5 pick. It was a choice that changed the trajectory of the organization for years to come as Chase and Burrow’s connection helped lead the team to the Super Bowl. Burrow finished the season with 4,611 yards and 34 TDs, making him the 2021 Comeback Player of the Year.
Can He Do It Again?
Absolutely. The Bengals are going to upgrade their offensive line, and have started that task by signing La’el Collins. They also should hopefully draft an offensive lineman next week.
Give Joe Burrow this kind of time all next season and watch him win MVP!
Let Joe Brrr cook! pic.twitter.com/3jsqHtWjTV
— Patrick Carey (@PatCareySports) April 15, 2022
Ja’Marr Chase will be in his second year, and earned a much larger Target Share than he got last season. Burrow had the 15th-most pass attempts (520) last season, that number should go up, meaning more fantasy points. The Bengals should remain contenders as long as he is behind the helm.
