DFS Dreamers & Fantasy Streamers: Jeremy Kerley is a Contrarian GPP and Deep Sleeper Play for Week 11

Last week featured a number of bad quarterbacks in good matchups that were in play as streamers. Unfortunately, both Carson Wentz and most notably Jay Cutler failed to produce. However, Trevor Siemian did mange to turn in a QB2 performance. Thankfully, several of the other streaming recommendations at other positions delivered: Rishard Matthews, Tyreek Hill, and C.J. Prosise.

On the flip side, Dontrelle Inman had a chance to score a touchdown, but was interfered with in the end zone. Newly minted starter J.J. Nelson fumbled and setup an interception, leading to a lot more opportunities for Michael Floyd. Finally, Lance Kendricks put to a sad end our hot streak of picking productive streaming tight ends.

As we look into securing tickets for the fantasy playoffs, unearthing streamers will be all the more challenging. We’ll forge ahead continuing to highlight under-owned players that need to be picked up as well as the short-term and contrarian plays. Let’s get to it.

Quarterback

In Week 9 against the New Orleans Saints, Colin Kaepernick was touted as a top-10 fantasy quarterback in the Player Profiler Weekly Player Rankings and the best streaming option at his position in this space. Here in Week 11 against the New England Patriots, Kaepernick is once again both a top-10 fantasy quarterback in the rankings and the best streaming option at his position. In fact, we need to stop streaming Kaepernick and hold him for the rest of the season.

Last week on the road against the Arizona Cardinals, Colin Kaepernick was a forgettable 17 of 30 passing for 210 yards and a touchdown, but added 55 additional yards and another score on the ground. The opposing Patriots feature a toothless pass rush that’s tied for dead last in Adjusted Sack Rate per Football Outsiders. Tyrod Taylor of the Buffalo Bills totaled 76 rushing yards on 10 carries against New England in their two meetings earlier in the year. It all adds up to another productive day for Kaepernick. He won’t face much pressure and, like Taylor, can take off when nothing is open.

Including last week’s solid performance against the vaunted Minnesota Vikings defense, Kirk Cousins has exceeded 18 fantasy points on DraftKings in seven of nine games thus far. He’ll stay at home to face a Green Bay defense that has given up three or more touchdown passes in four of their last seven games. Given the consistency, the matchup, and a price tag that’s only $800 above the minimum quarterback salary, expect Cousins to carry a high amount of ownership. The pivot I like in the same price range is the aforementioned Tyrod Taylor. His teammate LeSean McCoy is an outrageous bargain on DraftKings (or is it FanDuel now?)and should also be highly owned. Cousins and McCoy are two major factors that will work to camouflage Taylor despite an excellent matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals and their 20th-ranked DVOA against the pass.

Wide Receiver

When putting this article together each week I often come across players that are under-owned, but don’t quite fall into the streamer category. For someone to get the streamer tag I’m looking near the sub-30 percent ownership range on ESPN and Yahoo. This week’s public service announcement for a player that should be much higher owned is PlayerProfiler darling Cameron Meredith (56-percent Yahoo, 40-percent ESPN).

Alshon Jeffery is suspended four games following a failed PED test. He may no longer have a future with the team as a pending free agent. Kevin White (broken fibula) is eligible to return in Week 13, but he’s been terrible. Eddie Royal can be effective, although he’s rarely healthy. Marquess Wilson (foot) is off the PUP list and has resumed practicing. It remains to be seen if he’ll be ready to play this week. Clearly, there is a major target void in Chicago for Cameron Meredith to fill. While Meredith is someone to pick up and use going forward, this week he could draw New York Giants cornerback Janoris Jenkins, who has been playing extremely well this season.

https://youtu.be/cnKEvjUKgM8

This is really, really good week to stream in a wide receiver. Here are the ones that standout:

Jeremy Kerley SF… Every external force is working in Kerley’s favor.  The New England Patriots have been crushed by slot wide receivers this season, evidenced by well below average coverage ratings for both Logan Ryan and Justin Coleman. The list of slot receivers to have significant fantasy production against them includes: Larry Fitzgerald (8/81/2), Jarvis Landry (10/135), Robert Woods (7/89), Andrew Hawkins (4/56/1), Tyler Boyd (4/79), Doug Baldwin (6/59/3).

Since to change to Kapernick at quarterback, Kerley had been relatively quiet until catching all seven of his targets for 71 yards and a touchdown last week against Arizona.  As a double-digit home underdog in week 11, game flow will likely work in Kerley’s favor this week as the 49ers should be forced to pass throughout the second half.

Tyreek Hill KC… Sounds like Jeremy Maclin (groin) will miss another game. Last week, Hill filled in admirably with 13 targets, 10 receptions, and 89 yards. Hill did not start the game and only played on 61 percent of the offensive snaps. However, he’s their most explosive pass catcher and should remain heavily targeted against Tampa Bay’s pass defense, tied for allowing the fourth-most touchdown receptions.

Robert Woods BUF… is averaging 8.3 targets, 5.6 receptions, and 70.3 yards per game over his last six starts and coming off his best game of the season.

Pierre Garcon WAS… Solid floor play if DeSean Jackson (shoulder) misses another game. Last week, Garcon saw double-digit carries for the second time in four games and recorded a season-high 81 receiving yards.

Eli Rogers PIT… Ben Roethlisberger is his quarterback and the Cleveland Browns are the opposing defense. Good enough? Last week, Cobi Hamilton and Rogers played the vast majority of the secondary wide receiver snaps as Sammie Coates continues to deal with a mangled hand.

With so many expensive running backs in prime spots there should be a lot of traffic toward the middle tier wide receivers in DFS. Prime examples include: Donte Moncrief, Jamison Crowder, and Rishard Matthews. Paying up for T.Y. Hilton is a natural pivot from the more chalky Moncreif. You can also consider going back to Mike Evans after posting two duds over his last three games.

Running Back

This is a really ugly week to attempt plucking a running back off waivers and placing him directly into a streaming spot. Green Bay’s run defense is currently fifth in DVOA, but has cracked when pitted up against top running backs like Ezekiel Elliott and DeMarco Murray. Robert Kelley has been productive in recent weeks, but he’s not one of those guys. Over Washington’s last two games, Kelley has seen 43 carries while Chris Thompson only managed 19 total touches during that time. If the Packers can get Washington into a negative game script, or simply stonewalls Kelley, Thompson should see an increased number of snaps and opportunities.

Outside of Le’Veon Bell, DeMarco Murray, LeSean McCoy, and LeGarrette Blount there is very little to consider at running back in DFS. Enter Spencer Ware. After missing one game with a concussion, Ware had at decent game in last week’s return to action, a difficult road matchup against the Carolina Panthers. Kansas City now hosts Tampa Bay’s sneaky bad rush defense. Despite only allowing one rusher to exceed 85 rushing yards this season, the Bucs have bleed receiving yards to backfield opponents and rank in the bottom third of fantasy points yielded to running backs. Ware is available at an extremely reasonable price, but will have very little ownership given the more attractive names right above him.

Tight End

Last week saw a streak of four games with at least seven targets come to an end for C.J. Fiedorowicz. In fact, his 26 receiving yards represent his lowest output since jumping on the fantasy radar in Week 4. The Oakland Raiders have given up four touchdowns to opposing tight ends in their last five games. No single tight end has put together a monster performance against Oakland thus far. However, tight ends on both the Atlanta Falcons and San Diego Chargers combined for more than 100 receiving yards.

Different week, same formula at tight end when it comes to DFS. Go cheap in cash, pay up in tournaments. If Rob Gronkowski (chest) is ruled out, Martellus Bennett figures to see extremely high ownership in both formats. Julius Thomas and Zach Miller are viable options on the cheaper side. At the high end, it’s Jordan Reed and Delanie Walker.

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