NFL betting continues to be a roller-coaster for many. However, thanks to resources on PlayerProfiler, we can more easily find value in player props. This is particularly true when DFS sites offer pick ‘em props with extreme value compared to sportsbooks. Welcome back to my pick ‘em series where I try to find the right selections for you. In these articles, I review selections from the previous week. Then, I give out my favorite player prop pick ‘ems for the upcoming weekend on the DFS pages of Underdog Fantasy and Sleeper.
In each article, I’ll explain why I see value in the selected props. I will also accompany the article with at least one sample slip. Players who want to tail the picks can head over to the designated platform and join either Underdog or Sleeper using promo code UNDERWORLD for a full deposit match of up to $100.
Week 4 Review
Last week’s picks can be viewed in this article. Unfortunately, we saw our first painfully “bad beat” of the season as we were one yard away from profiting. Overall, we went 1-3 on our props. This was our worst performance of the season.
Underdog Play: Irv Smith UNDER 26.5 receiving yards, Christian Kirk over 60.5 receiving yards
The only prop smash of the week was on a fade of the liability pass-catching tight end Irv Smith. Smith still has only one game with more than three receptions and no games with more than 40 receiving yards. He finished the first London game of the season with just 23 receiving yards on four targets and is a drop candidate in most redraft leagues.
We were ever so close to cashing the second leg of this play as well via Christian Kirk. Although the Jaguars’ slot receiver drew a staggering nine targets, a number he has hit in three of his four games already, he wasn’t able to replicate his consistent six-reception mark. Instead, he caught just two balls and still only missed the line by one yard in a weather-sabotaged game that got the worst out of quarterback Trevor Lawrence. I have no regrets about the play. However, we might have to be more cautious about wildly inaccurate quarterbacks in suspect weather going forward.
Christian Kirk today:
🎯 9 targets
😵 2 receptions
😭 60 receiving yards (63 total thanks to a rush 😂)
— Ahaan Rungta (@AhaanRungta) October 2, 2022
Sleeper Play: Ian Thomas over 1.5 receptions, Courtland Sutton over 66.5 receiving yards
We’ve got a pair of whiffs here. Ian Thomas caught a pass early in the first quarter but was never found again in another offensive debacle for the Panthers. Thomas put up season-lows in snap share (28.8-percent) and routes run. (4) However, he drew exactly three targets for the fourth week in a row. The Carolina offense continues to leave a bad taste in fantasy owners’ mouths. Quarterback Baker Mayfield now ranks No. 21 in pass attempts, No. 27 in passing yards, No. 27 in air yards, No. 26 in accuracy rating, and No. 31 in true completion percentage this season.
Meanwhile, air yard hog Courtland Sutton was once again efficient on his targets. However, he saw less volume in a back-and-forth affair against Las Vegas. His 95.8-percent snap share was a season-high. But, his 28 routes run was a season-low. He drew seven targets (tied for a season-low). Although he scored his first touchdown of the season, he only put up 52 receiving yards, a new season low. It was a statement game for cornerback Nate Hobbs who only allowed one reception for 15 yards on his coverage.
- Week 2 Legs: 1-3; overall -1.00u
- YTD: 9-7; +0.50u
Week 5 Picks
Pick No. 1 (Sleeper): Tyler Allgeier (ATL) OVER 8.5 receiving yards
Something is mispriced in the Tyler Allgeier market. On Sleeper, his rushing yard line is set at 44.5, and his receiving yard line is set at 8.5. Yet, his rushing+receiving yard line is set at 57.5. There’s great value somewhere. The prop we’ve elected is juiced to the over (-120) on sportsbooks, and there are plenty of reasons to take this side.
The rookie Allgeier will likely feature as the lead back in Week 5 without starting running back Cordarrelle Patterson. Allgeier is no stranger to pass-catching. His 10.0-percent college target share ranks in the 77th percentile at the position and his 65.88 receiver rating carried his decent grading on this year’s Breakout Finder.
The Falcons will be without their superstar tight end Kyle Pitts in this contest. Granted, Pitts wasn’t getting heavy usage to begin the season, but his talent was still a force to be feared by opposing defenses. With the staunch Tampa Bay secondary now getting to guard a tight end committee of Parker Hesse and Anthony Firkser instead, they can focus on locking down the star rookie wide receiver Drake London.
Negative Game Script
In a negative game script for the Falcons, who are currently 10-point underdogs, Marcus Mariota should be forced into plenty of passing opportunities. Last year, in seven games where Tampa Bay was favored by at least 10 points, their opposing starting running back cleared this receiving line all seven times. This season, they rank No. 3 in the NFL in pass DVOA as a defense. Instead, they’ve already allowed two running backs to clear this number (Tony Pollard in Week 1, Aaron Jones in Week 3). In Allgeier’s first game with meaningful action in Week 4, he ran seven routes and caught one pass for 20 yards. With the added opportunity, he should see at least a couple of targets again. This will be enough to clear this line.
Pick No. 2 (Sleeper): Allen Robinson (LAR) OVER 36.5 receiving yards
I have a feeling this prop won’t draw the most love as it involves one of the biggest busts of fantasy football so far in 2022. You may be fading Allen Robinson due to the grudge you’re holding for his lack of efficiency, but the truth is this line isn’t going to get much friendlier this season.
The matchup is great since Robinson should see some cornerback combination of Trevon Diggs and Anthony Brown. Combined, these two have given up a combined 102.5 receiving yards per game by themselves in coverage this season and are the reason the Cowboys have given up the No. 4-most fantasy points to wideouts this season.
Head coach Sean McVay might be rightfully criticized so far for some of the Rams’ struggles. However, if there’s one thing you can give him credit for, it’s that he’s honest in his postgame comments. There should be more targets available in Week 5 for Robinson who has drawn at least five targets in his last three games. In what is projected by Vegas to be a close game, Robinson should stay on the field and continue his streak of logging an 89-percent or higher route participation in every game this season. Even if he replicates his 5.3-target average from the last three games, he’ll clear this line if he catches four passes.
#Rams HC Sean McVay said the game plan is to spread the ball around more (yes, including WR Allen Robinson.)
"A lot of it is out of his [Robinson] control."
McVay added it's based on the different coverages they see defensively, where he's lined up, etc…
— Kayla Burton (@Kay_Breezy22) October 5, 2022
Pick No. 3 (Underdog): Chase Claypool (PIT) UNDER 32.5 receiving yards
The nice thing about taking this on Underdog is we’re getting a buffer on an extra yard since most DFS sites and sportsbooks have had this line firmly set at 31.5. As we saw with Christian Kirk last week, you should never take a yard for granted. Therefore, we’ll snag this value on a wide receiver who continues fading away from his offense.
Chase Claypool‘s career has been marred with disappointment stemming from physical and mental mistakes. Claypool is a former second-round draft pick with gifted athletic attributes. Thus far, he hasn’t yet learned how to separate and continues to be below average in contested targets. This was on full display when Kenny Pickett entered the scene in Week 4 to make his NFL debut. Claypool received two of Pickett’s 13 targets and both were intercepted.
In Kenny Pickett's first #NFL appearance, he threw 13 passes. Here's how the targets were distributed.
🎯 George Pickens: 4 (4 complete) 🔥
🎯 Pat Freiermuth: 4 (3 complete, 1 INT)
🎯 Diontae Johnson: 2 (2 complete)
🎯 Chase Claypool: 2 (2 INT) 💀
🎯 Zach Gentry: 1 (1 complete) pic.twitter.com/NErfOutUIa
— Ahaan Rungta (@AhaanRungta) October 7, 2022
Claypool finished Week 4 against a bad Jets secondary with a season-high 119 air yards but a staggering lack of conversion as he put up zero receiving yards. He has now gone under 32.5 receiving yards in three of his four games and averages 19.75 receiving yards on the season. Even against an injury-riddled Bills secondary, Claypool likely being the third or fourth pass-catching option for Pickett isn’t good news for Pittsburgh’s 16.25 implied team total. This is the third-lowest total on the Week 5 NFL slate.
Pick No. 4 (Underdog): Hayden Hurst (CIN) OVER 2.5 receptions
For starters, sportsbooks think we’re getting elite value on this prop as a pick ‘em since this line is juiced to the over in the -145 to -170 range. We also get both a narrative and the trends to back up the over here.
A couple of years ago, Hayden Hurst requested a trade away from Baltimore to be more involved in the offense, and this year he finds himself with a pass-heavy offense in the same division. He ranks No. 8 at his position in routes run (115) and No. 12 in targets (21). In the first four weeks of the season, the Ravens have allowed a tight end to clear this reception line in every single game (Tyler Conklin, Mike Gesicki, Dawson Knox, and Jonnu Smith).
Hurst has cleared this line in three of his four games and has drawn at least four targets in those games. His only under came against the Jets when a blowout restricted him to a 30.9-percent snap share and just 14 routes run.
If you want to tail these picks verbatim, these are our recommendations. Play these player prop pick-ems:
- 0.5u wager on a play with the 2 Sleeper picks, using all-in payout; profits 1u if both picks hit
- 0.5u wager on a play with the 2 Underdog picks; profits 1u if both picks hit
Your entries should look like this.
To read more about wagering player props and how to find edge, you can check out Seth Diewold’s Beginner’s Guide to Prop Betting. To get a deposit match up to $100 on either of these sites, use promo code UNDERWORLD upon entry.