Player props in the NFL continue to be a profitable way to attack the betting market. In locations where you cannot get your hands on a full-access sportsbook, you can still find supreme value in pick ’em props. Every prop is the same price, and you just have to find the overs and unders the line-creators have whiffed on. In these articles, I review selections from the previous week, then give out my favorite player prop pick ’ems for the upcoming weekend on the DFS pages of Underdog Fantasy and Sleeper. This week we will be reviewing the Best Pick Em Player Props for Week 4!
In each article, I’ll explain why I see value on the selected props. I will also accompany the article with at least one sample slip. Players who want to tail the picks can head over to the designated platform and join either Underdog or Sleeper using promo code UNDERWORLD for a full deposit match up to $100.
Week 3 Review
Last week’s picks can be viewed in this article. We split our picks and went 2-2. Luckily, both hits came from our Sleeper ticket, which means we cashed a crisp two-legger to close the Week 3 ledger with profit.
Article props on my Week 3 @rotounderworld piece go 2-2 but we chose to hit on a pair this time.
Michael Carter under 40.5 rush yd ✅
Adam Thielen over 49.5 rec yd ✅
➡️ That's a @SleeperHQ pick 'em hit! 💸
Promo code 𝗨𝗡𝗗𝗘𝗥𝗪𝗢𝗥𝗟𝗗. 😏 https://t.co/ZvtoIEJAAi pic.twitter.com/dlGRsBH1Yf
— Ahaan Rungta (@AhaanRungta) September 26, 2022
For our Sleeper play, we found the value in Adam Thielen to continue his dominance of the Lions; it is noteworthy that Justin Jefferson once again undercut his projection in Week 3 against an improved Lions defense. However, we found the delectable matchup to target with Thielen as he set season-highs in targets (8), receptions (6), and yards (61) while also scoring his first touchdown of the season. Additionally, we targeted a shifting Jets backfield again. This time we shorted Michael Carter‘s role and efficiency against a staunch Cincinnati run defense. Indeed, even though Carter was still the lead ball-carrier with 11 attempts (a new season-high), he produced only 39 yards and was out-snapped by Breece Hall in a negative game script for the Jets.
For our Underdog play, we attacked a low number on the sophomore tight end Kylen Granson. We hoped for a couple of catches to get him to at least 16 receiving yards. While I cited the usage splits between the “two-headed committee” of Granson and Mo Alie-Cox, the Colts shocked the world by getting the athletic prowess of tight end Jelani Woods involved early instead. Granson out-snapped Woods and ran more routes than Woods. However, in a close contest, Alie-Cox was the main man at tight end and Granson’s two grabs only tallied seven yards.
Our other leg was a dabble in the rivals market on Underdog. This is a prop where fantasy gamers are given two players to go head-to-head, and you decide which player’s side to take in the matchup. We elected Darrell Henderson to out-rush Cam Akers. While Henderson was once again involved early, Akers shined for the first time all season against an unimpressive Cardinals run defense. He took over the backfield with 12 rushing attempts for 61 yards and a touchdown. Henderson barely out-snapped Akers, but his involvement was mostly in the passing game as he ran 15 routes (Akers ran 5 routes). Henderson only received four carries for 17 yards, and our guess on the Rams backfield was never a good contest in Week 3.
- Week 2 Legs: 2-2; overall +0.50u
- YTD: 8-4; +1.50u
Week 4 Picks
Pick No. 1 (Sleeper): Courtland Sutton (DEN) OVER 66.5 receiving yards
This line doesn’t make much sense for an alpha wide receiver in a passing narrative against a poor secondary. Sutton has not only cleared this number in all three games this year, but he is averaging 9.33 targets per game and has cleared 100 yards in every single game. All of Sutton’s games have also been played in fairly neutral game scripts.
This year thru Week 3:
✅ 9 wide receivers have a 100% route participation.
✅ 15 wide receivers have over 300 air yards.
✅ 19 wide receivers have 4+ red zone targets.
Only 2 of them are on all three lists.
🔥 Davante Adams 🔥 Courtland Sutton
They face each other in Week 4. https://t.co/Zs0PjDO3sf pic.twitter.com/TZROAvZ2DI
— Ahaan Rungta (@AhaanRungta) September 30, 2022
In Week 4, Denver enters Las Vegas as underdogs against a hungry 0-3 Raiders. This line suggests their offensive script will likely be a negative or a neutral one. As a result, there shouldn’t be a dip in passing rate by Russell Wilson. Sutton meets all the criteria to continue commanding volume. If anything, he might be in for positive regression as he has yet to find the end zone despite drawing four red zone targets already. For this prop, we need him to just come close to his average volume so far this season.
To do so, he will line up against a Raiders secondary that doesn’t stick to a perfect shadow strategy with their top corner Rock Ya-Sin. Instead, this is how the opposing team’s top wide receiver has performed against them in each game this season.
- Week 1, Keenan Allen: 4 receptions, 66 yards
- Week 2, Marquise Brown: 6 receptions, 68 yards
- Week 3, Robert Woods: 4 receptions, 85 yards
Wide receiver teammate Jerry Jeudy continues to be banged up and inconsistent with efficiency, so there’s no reason Sutton shouldn’t be able to clear this line with similar usage in matchups like these.
Pick No. 2 (Sleeper): Ian Thomas (CAR) OVER 1.5 receptions
The lowest receptions line you will see on any sportsbook is this 1.5 number. There’s a certain thrill in praying for Baker Mayfield to complete two passes to a player in a game. Here’s why it’s smart. For starters, this is priced at around -130 on sportsbooks right now. This means we’re getting value. It makes sense that the books think Thomas is likely going over this number.
Although the depth of his targets through the air have varied throughout the season thus far, the volume hasn’t. He’s drawn exactly three targets in every game this year. Additionally, he’s gone over this reception line in two of them. The Arizona Cardinals are shallow in their secondary. They already have to contend with D.J. Moore, Robbie Anderson, and the newly acquired athlete Laviska Shenault Jr. Arizona could have some trouble also shutting down Thomas. The team just doesn’t have the facilities for that big man.
This year, the Cardinals allowed the most production by just about every metric to tight ends. Of course, part of that is contributed by having to face Travis Kelce and Darren Waller. However, even then, they’ve been porous. Every single starting tight end to face Arizona this year has gone over on their receptions and receiving yards line, including Tyler Higbee in Week 3. I like Thomas to catch a couple of Mayfield’s targets in a projected neutral game script. I like it whether or not Christian McCaffrey plays in this game.
Pick No. 3 (Underdog): Christian Kirk (JAX) OVER 60.5 receiving yards
It’s hard to imagine why this line is what it is. This is especially true considering this number has cashed in all three of Christian Kirk‘s games so far. In fact, this year, Kirk averages 89 receiving yards on nine targets per game. Yes, the Eagles are a solid defensive team, and it’s one of the reasons they are the only undefeated team in the NFL. Yet, they’ve still been just a middle-of-the-pack defense against slot receivers. This is where Kirk’s role resides.
This year, Kirk has played the slot at a 51.4-percent rate, and his 95 slot snaps ranks No. 6 among wide receivers. In a game where the 6.5-point-underdog Jaguars are projected to be in a passing game script, Kirk’s volume should remain high. This is especially true considering the emergent red zone monster Zay Jones will be playing through an ankle injury. Here is how some slot receivers have performed against the Eagles so far this year:
- Week 1, Amon-Ra St. Brown: 8 receptions, 64 yards
- Week 3, Curtis Samuel: 7 receptions, 48 yards
Now, Philadelphia’s top slot assignment man on defense is out due to injury and a backup will have to step into the fire of Christian Kirk.
Avonte Maddox ruled out Sunday vs. Jaguars. Big blow to the #Eagles secondary, especially with Christian Kirk spending so much time in the slot
— Eliot Shorr-Parks (@EliotShorrParks) September 30, 2022
Both an over on receptions and an over on receiving yards makes sense for Kirk in Week 4. We’ll take the value this pick ‘em prop is providing as they grace us with some leeway in this line of 60.5. Most sportsbooks currently have this set at a yard or two higher, so thanks for the free value, Underdog!
Pick No. 4 (Underdog): Irv Smith (MIN) UNDER 26.5 receiving yards
If you’ve been following this series all season long, you’ll notice I like targeting the games with the highest total points lines for overs. We’re flipping the script at targeting a game that should get a lot of viewers and draw a lot of over-bettors, but is still projected to be one of the lowest-scoring games of the slate. We’re headed across the pond as the Vikings are only 3-point favorites over Andy Dalton‘s Saints.
Given the projected neutral-esque game script for the Vikings, there isn’t much reason for Minnesota to suddenly prioritize Irv Smith in this offense. In Preseason, we were low on Irv Smith in fantasy drafts relative to consensus. So far, we’ve looked spot-on in Kevin O’Connell’s wide-receiver-based offensive rhythm.
Irv Smith Jr. has no YAC ability, already 3 drops, and is already surrendering snaps & routes to Johnny Mundt.
MIN just signed proven veteran pass-catching TE Jacob Hollister.
Smith is rostered in 47% of @SleeperHQ leagues. That's about 45% too high.https://t.co/nfewk97UTu
— Ahaan Rungta (@AhaanRungta) September 30, 2022
This season, Smith has a respectable 25.0-percent target share (No. 8 in the NFL). However, he still only averages 22.7 receiving yards per game due to his nonexistent ability after the catch and inaccurate quarterback Kirk Cousins. Cousins has only fed him a 75.0-percent catchable target rate (No. 23 in the NFL). Smith has been surrendering snaps and routes to Johnny Mundt, and his productive game of the season came in Week 2 thanks to garbage-time receptions and a touchdown. In Week 4, he won’t have the benefit of stat-padding in this way and will face a team that has forced all three of their opposing tight ends to go under on their pre-game receiving yard prop. The Saints rank No. 11 in the NFL this season in pass DVOA as a defense.
If you want to tail these picks verbatim, these are our recommendations. Play these player prop pick ems:
- 0.5u wager on a play with the 2 Sleeper picks, using all-in payout; profits 1u if both picks hit
- 0.5u wager on a play with the 2 Underdog picks; profits 1u if both picks hit
Your entries should look like this.
To read more about wagering player props and how to find edge, you can check out Seth Diewold’s Beginner’s Guide to Prop Betting. To get a deposit match up to $100 on either of these sites, use promo code UNDERWORLD upon entry.