Best Pick ‘Em Player Props: Week 17

by Ahaan Rungta · Matchups Start/Sit

This is the Best Pick ‘Em Player Props: Week 17! It is time for the penultimate full slate of NFL regular season football in 2022 and it is now or never to find a massive menu of DFS player props with value. Welcome back to my written series on the NFL’s best pick ‘em player props of the week. As usual, I will review selections from the previous week, then give out my favorite player prop pick ‘ems for the upcoming weekend on the DFS pages of Underdog Fantasy and Sleeper.

In each article, I’ll explain why I see value in the selected props. I will also accompany the article with at least one sample slip. Players who want to tail the picks can head over to the designated platform and join either Underdog or Sleeper using promo code UNDERWORLD for a full deposit match of up to $100. Players who want to get a head-start building their pick ‘em cards earlier in the week can also visit PlayerProfilers’ DFS Dominator tool and navigate over a dozen prop leans by me and some other staff. Fantasy gamers can do this a day or two before I reveal my final picks in this article. These picks will be located in the Underdog Pick Generator on the website.

Week 16 Review

We paired our PlayerProfiler newsletter Play of the Week with a two-leg game script stack in the Lions vs. Panthers matchup but completely whiffed on how the Panthers would fare defensively. Then, we went after a two-leg offensive snoozefest between the Buccaneers and Cardinals and were on the doorstep of cash. However, a bad beat ended up getting in the way of a profitable week.  Last week’s final wagers can be viewed in this article.

Week 16 Underdog Play: Derrick Henry over 0.5 rushing TDs | D’Andre Swift over 32.5 rushing yards | Jared Goff under 2.5 rushing yards

The Derrick Henry prop should never have been available as a pick ‘em leg. As a result, it was taken down by Sunday morning after we made this the featured Underdog play of the week on the PlayerProfiler newsletter. Indeed, Henry did his job scoring a touchdown as the clear No. 1 weapon against a Texans rush defense that continues to have no answers for The King.

Unfortunately, we misread the Lions’ offense against a Panthers team that showed out to play early. The Pathers exposed the Lions’ run defense and played from ahead all day. Jared Goff not only attempted 42 passes in the game but led his team in rushing with 15 yards. Swift chipped in with just four carries for 12 yards. We have to be better at targeting less volatile game scripts.

Week 16 Sleeper Play: Trace McSorley under 190.5 passing yards | Mike Evans under 56.5 receiving yards

The phrase bad beat is reserved for occasions like this. The spot-start quarterback McSorley was active throwing the ball but was far from efficient. DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown fantasy managers could tell you this from their disappointing Week 16 performances. McSorley had 184 passing yards in the game until his final completion of regulation, which was a checkdown to running back James Conner that went for 22 yards. This game went to overtime, and McSorley stayed over the passing yard line to ruin this two-leg entry. Mike Evans never contested his receiving yard line and was essentially a non-factor in this game. Despite commanding the ball in overtime, he finished the game with just three catches on his eight targets for 29 yards.

  • Week 16 Legs: 2-3; overall -1.00u
  • YTD: 35-36-1; -3.00u

Week 17 Picks

If you are new to player prop pick ‘ems, we recommend learning about them through our Beginner’s Guide Article. In the Beginner’s Guide Article, we preview some profitable strategies and when to use insurance. Again, we are going all-in on our three-leg play since it is strictly more profitable than taking the insurance method.

Both plays for Week 17 involve correlation, utilizing an effective strategy: get positively-correlated legs in a game for the same price as independent outcomes. With legs within an entry positively correlated with each other, we’re making fewer bets to hit two legs than if we bet on two separate independent events. We will start with a three-leg Underdog play spanning two games during the Saturday afternoon block.

Pick No. 1 (Underdog): Travis Kelce OVER 0.5 Receiving TDs

Similar to our Derrick Henry piece from last week, this individual leg might be the single most valuable prop on the pick ‘em slate. This prop is juiced to -165 on sportsbooks, and rightfully so. Travis Kelce has averaged 0.8 touchdowns per game and has scored in six of the 10 games where the Chiefs have scored at least 25 points this season. Kansas City’s implied team total in Week 17 is 28.5.

The Broncos rank No. 4 as a defense via pass DVOA, per Football Outsiders. However, this season, Kelce has 10 red zone targets and four touchdowns in six games when facing a top 10 pass DVOA defense. Kelce leads all tight ends in red zone targets (28) and is due for regression. He has gone four straight games without a touchdown but has not gone five straight without finding the end zone since early in the 2019 season.

Pick No. 2 (Underdog): Michael Pittman (IND) OVER 57.5 Receiving Yards

We will pair the Kelce prop with a same-game stack on the Colts’ receiving core. We are essentially making the bet that Nick Foles will prefer Michael Pittman heavily over Parris Campbell as he did in Week 16.

Pittman has cleared this line in eight of his 14 games. Even though he went under last week, it was against a red-hot Chargers secondary and volume wasn’t the issue. He drew seven targets for 74 air yards but only converted that into four receptions for 39 receiving yards. Against a Giants secondary that has allowed the No. 5-most receptions and No. 7-most receiving yards to wide receivers since Week 10, that efficiency should be rectified. The line is set one yard higher (58.5) on sportsbooks.

Pick No. 3 (Underdog): Parris Campbell (IND) UNDER 32.5 Receiving Yards

Parris Campbell‘s season has been a quarterback story: he has gone over this line in seven of Matt Ryan‘s 12 starts. However, he has gone under this number twice in the three games he’s played without Ryan under center.

In Foles’ first start of the season, Campbell drew five targets for 45 air yards and converted that into two receptions for 19 receiving yards. If Pittman is the primary beneficiary of the Colts’ limited passing game, there is a high chance Campbell’s volume suffers. Therefore, we will gladly take the value of correlation here.

Pick No. 4 (Sleeper): Teddy Bridgewater (MIA) OVER 5.5 Rushing Yards

We’re keeping it simple on Sleeper this week with a two-leg same-game stack in a game that means a lot for the Dolphins and Patriots. The game script we’re chasing: a competitive game that is suggested by the 2.5-point Vegas spread. Despite the Dolphins losing their quarterback Tua Tagovailoa due to another concussion, this game should remain close and require backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater to drop back to pass against a banged-up Patriots secondary.

Despite injuries, the New England defense is formidable thanks to a pass rush that ranks No. 6 in the NFL in pressure rate. That should force Bridgewater to scramble. The veteran has rushed once in each of the two games he has dropped back more than twice this season. On both occasions, he cleared this line easily.

Pick No. 5 (Sleeper): Jakobi Meyers (NE) OVER 51.5 Receiving Yards

If the Patriots are involved in a tight contest, regardless of how conservative they want to be in chilly conditions, they will have to pass the ball against a Dolphins defense that ranks No. 26 in pass DVOA, per Football Outsiders. The slot receiver Jakobi Meyers is already the alpha of the Patriots’ pass attack and has cleared this line in six out of nine healthy Mac Jones starts.

Now that Meyers has cleared concussion protocols, there is no doubt he is by far the preferred option for Jones who will now be without DeVante Parker and Jonnu Smith and sees questionable tags on Tyquan Thornton and Hunter Henry.

Example Slips

If you want to tail these picks verbatim, these are our recommendations. Play these player prop pick ‘ems:

  • 0.5u wager on a play with the three Underdog picks, using all-in payout; profits 2.5u if both picks hit
  • 0.5u wager on a play with the two Sleeper picks; profits 1u if both picks hit

Your entries should look like this.

To read more about wagering player props and how to find edge, you can check out Seth Diewold’s Beginner’s Guide to Prop Betting. To get a deposit match up to $100 on either of these sites, use promo code UNDERWORLD upon entry.