… and not painting rookies with a broad brush
Week 1 is finally here! All the prep, the mock drafts, the training camp fluff, the preseason usage data, and our fantasy drafts are in the rearview mirror. More often than not, we are still relying on draft rankings and where we drafted our players to determine who we are trotting out for action and who to leave on the bench in Week 1.
However, even in Week 1, there are lineup dilemmas at times. With that in mind, I searched for players mostly around the edge of starting territory in PlayerProfiler’s weekly rankings to analyze. Here are my Starts and Sits at every position for Week 1 of the 2025 season.
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Week 1 Fantasy Football Start/Sit
Quarterback
Start: Drake Maye
The second-year signal-caller for the New England Patriots has been the darling of many analysts leading up to the 2025 season. PlayerProfiler has Maye ranked at QB11, but he has the potential to finish higher than that in Week 1. Frankly, he has the matchup for it. Outside of Maxx Crosby, Las Vegas is severely lacking playmakers on the defensive side of the ball. They surrendered 434 points last year, making them the 25th-ranked defense.
Maye has the first game of his second year at home in Foxborough. He has a revamped WR corps, with veteran Stefon Diggs stepping in as his new WR1. The Pats also acquired explosive rookie TreVeyon Henderson with the sixth pick of the second round of the draft. With these new weapons and a revamped offensive line, look for Maye to start strong against this susceptible defense.
Here’s a quick look at Maye’s rushing production in 2024. He had 421 rushing yards last year and ranked second at his position in scramble yards despite starting only 12 games. Those numbers should only go up, as offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels plans to increase the number of designed runs for Maye in 2025.
Drake Maye Advanced Rushing Metrics
Let’s fire him up for Week 1.
Honorable Mention: Trevor Lawrence
Sit: Dak Prescott
The Dallas Cowboys open their season on the road against the reigning Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles. Many analysts had the Dallas quarterback as a later-round target in drafts this year. That’s a take I agree with, generally speaking. Given their apparent lack of strength at the running back position and a significant downgrade to an already struggling defense (ranked dead-last this week on PlayerProfiler) due to the departure of Micah Parsons, the Cowboys will be chucking the pigskin early and often this season.
But if Prescott is your QB1, you may want to check your backup QB’s matchup or scope out the waiver wire for Week 1. Last year, in the regular season, the Eagles amassed 41 sacks, 13 interceptions, and 22 fumble recoveries. These helped earn the Eagles a No. 7 rank in points per game and a No. 2 rank in total yards. It’s gonna be a hostile environment on Thursday night. Prescott and his 23rd-ranked offensive line will have their work cut out for them to start the season.
Honorable Mentions: Justin Fields, C.J. Stroud
Running Back
Start: Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Sitting just outside of RB2 rankings at 25, Tracy still has the matchup and situation to come through for your team to start the season. Those two factors, along with the talent he showed last year, make him a solid start for Week 1 fantasy matchups. Last season, he emerged after the G-men lost to the Cowboys in Week 4, when journeyman Devin Singletary sustained a groin injury. From Week 5 on, Tracy averaged 13.2 PPR points per game.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. Athleticism Score and 2024 Season Stats
Exciting rookie Cam Skattebo is suddenly likely to play, returning from a re-aggravated hamstring injury. Even so, Tracy looks to take the bulk of the volume from the RB position as the Giants aim to avoid any further re-aggravations with the rookie’s hamstring. Their Week 1 opponent? None other than the 30th-ranked rush defense Washington Commanders. Feel free to roll Tracy out confidently in your flex spot this week, even as an RB2 in deeper leagues.
Honorable Mentions: Jerome Ford, Alvin Kamara
Sit: Kaleb Johnson
Some of Johnson’s dynasty hype has spilled into the redraft conversation. The rookie from Iowa does show some promise, to be sure. But it will be a slow burn in 2025.
Johnson is going to see some work in the Steelers’ opener when they travel to North Jersey to face the Jets. But what happens when the aging veteran Aaron Rodgers wants to check into a pass play and gets wholloped due to a missed blocking assignment?
This is NOT an anti-Kaleb Johnson stance. But more of a “show me” stance. Especially considering he is a third-round rookie making his first NFL regular-season appearance. Aaron Rodgers expects his running back to be able to help out against defensive pressures. Especially when those defensive pressures will be coming from an impressive Jets defense. I’m all about taking shots on high upside players, but let’s give this one a week.
Honorable Mention: Javonte Williams, Nick Chubb
Wide Receiver
Start: Emeka Egbuka
I recommend benching Johnson, but I’m going the other way with this rookie! Egbuka is ranked at WR30 for Week 1. This puts him pretty firmly inside of WR3 range, or a decent flex option if you are a little thin at RB. In his last year at Ohio State, he earned a 24% target share (109 targets), hinting at his ability to get open.
Emeka Egbuka College Stats
In Week 1 the rookie WR is set to step right into a starting role opposite attention-demanding alpha Mike Evans. The matchup is also favorable. Division rivals the Atlanta Falcons ranked 23rd in both points allowed and total yards last year. The Falcons also surrendered 34 passing touchdowns, the second-most in the league.
The buzz around Egbuka has been palpable throughout training camp and the preseason. The saying “where there’s smoke, there’s fire,” doesn’t always apply to training camp buzz. But there’s fire here. Let’s get Egbuka into our lineups!
Honorable Mentions: Zay Flowers, Devonta Smith, Chris Olave
Sit: Calvin Ridley
I know, I know, we all love Calvin Ridley this year. He’s been a mid-round target for me all draft season. But here we are, it’s Week 1. Ridley has a rookie quarterback making his first NFL start in Cam Ward, and he has a terrible matchup.
Ward, for his part, is the 30th-ranked QB is projected for an unamusing 15.4 fantasy points. While there is plenty to be optimistic about regarding his game, let’s not expect too much from the former Cane in his debut at Mile High.
Yes, the game is in Denver. Ridley will have 2024 Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain II lined up across from him. Surtain will shadow Ridley for most of the game, should head coach and play-caller Brian Callahan want to move Ridley around the formation. Here’s a quick look at what Ridley will be up against:
Patrick Surtain II Advanced Metrics
I still expect a good season from Ridley, but let’s seek out another option for Week 1 if we can.
Tight End
Start: Hunter Henry
Drake Maye‘s favorite target from last year is back and ready to help his second-year signal-caller take the next step.
Hunter Henry 2024 Advanced Metrics
Newly acquired WR Stefon Diggs has looked good throughout training camp and the preseason. But it’s very easy to see the connection Henry and Maye fostered throughout last year. I don’t expect that to go away. In fact, having some competent wide receiver play on the outside could very well help the tight end’s already impressive efficiency.
In Week 1, the Patriots host the Las Vegas Raiders. I mentioned above that the Raiders’ defense has weaknesses. But let’s look a little deeper here. The Raiders allowed 9.5 points per game to the tight end position in 2024. Only two teams (Carolina and Cincinnati) were worse. Start Henry with confidence this week if you waited on TE in your draft.
Honorable Mentions: Tyler Warren, David Njoku.
Sit: Tucker Kraft
I ranked Kraft higher than Henry during draft season, but this week, I’m starting the latter. Remember that link I used above to show the Raiders’ poor defense against tight ends last year? Well, if you revisit that and scroll all the way down, you will find Detroit fared best in the league against the position.
Look for Green Bay to attack the Lions on the ground, where they are slightly more susceptible, and with their wide receivers through the air. Detroit was 24th last year against wideouts, and Packers Head Coach Matt LaFleur will be eager to showcase their oft-criticized first-round pick Matthew Golden.
I expect Kraft to build on his breakout season last year with a good showing this year, and he could still get you by this week if you have no better option. I just want you guys to be aware of the problems this matchup presents. Let’s not just trot him out there because we drafted him as our TE1.
Honorable Mentions: Jake Ferguson, Brenton Strange
Final Thoughts
Remember, no one knows your roster and league like you do. So set your best lineup and get ready, cause football is BACK !
Let me know if you agree, disagree, or abhorrently disagree!
Many Successes,
Kyle Lesti (@klest.bsky.social)
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