No more Jakobi Meyers, I promise! After his 18.5 fantasy points in Week 2, Meyers has graduated from this article because he is now rostered in 64-percent of Sleeper leagues. While Meyers was a win for the series last week, sitting Jaylen Waddle and Rashod Bateman hurt quite a bit. With that in the rearview mirror, it’s time to turn our attention to Week 3 WR-CB matchups to play and fade.
Let’s recap what I’m looking to accomplish in this series:
- I’m targeting players that are STARTING in over 50-percent of Sleeper Leagues to FADE. I believe that these WRs will finish outside the top-30 wide receivers for the week.
- I’m targeting players ROSTERED in less than 50-percent of Sleeper Leagues to PLAY. These are your desperate WR2 and/or FLEX plays. I believe these wide receivers will finish inside the top-30 WRs for the week.
- Players I recommend playing I would play OVER players I recommend fading.
FADE – D.K. Metcalf (CB Matchup: A.J. Terrell – No. 2)
D.K. Metcalf is still top-30 in Target Share and Snap Share this season, but the Geno Smith-led Seahawks offense isn’t utilizing Metcalf optimally. His 5.5 (No. 88) Average Target Distance and 21.8-percent Air Yards Share are concerning this year. Metcalf isn’t getting open (0.38 Target Separation, No. 94), nor is he doing anything with Yards After Catch (7 yards, No. 98).
The Falcons secondary has allowed the No. 3 most fantasy points per game to WRs, but their opponents were in the top-half in Team Pass Plays Per Game and Pace of Play. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are No. 25 in Pass Plays Per Game and Pace of Play.
PLAY – Sterling Shepard (CB Matchup: Jourdan Lewis – No. 73)
Shepard is top-20 in Target Share and Air Yards Share. On top of that, he’s No. 33 in Yards Per Route Run. He currently leads the NFL in Target Separation vs. Man and is the undisputed top option in the Giants’ passing offense.
Jourdan Lewis has been a revolving door this season. He’s No. 74 in Target Separation with a -14.4 (No. 72) Coverage Rating. The Cowboys have been susceptible to allowing big pass plays to wide receivers. They have allowed 330 receiving yards to WRs on 26 completions, and only eight teams have allowed a higher Average Depth of Target to the position.
FADE – Curtis Samuel (CB Matchup: Avonte Maddox – No. 25)
Samuel is healthy this season and enjoying a resurgence through two weeks. He’s top-15 in targets and routes run and averaging 21.1 (No. 9) fantasy points per game. He’s accomplished this despite being ranked No. 93 in Air Yards Share. This means he’s reliant on what he does after the catch (No. 11 in Yards After Catch).
Samuel hasn’t faced a challenge this year with his matchups and opponents. His primary matchup, Avonte Maddox, has averaged 9.1 (No. 34) Yards Per Reception allowed and has given up zero touchdowns while primarily covering Amon-Ra St. Brown and Justin Jefferson.
Along with his cornerback counterparts Darius Slay (ranked No. 1) and James Bradberry (No. 21), they form the best trio of cornerbacks in the league and only eight teams have allowed fewer yards to wide receivers than the Eagles defense. As far as matchups go, this is going to be difficult for Samuel.
PLAY – D.J. Chark (CB Matchup: Cameron Dantzler – No. 81)
This one is technically cheating. D.J. Chark is rostered in 52-percent of Sleeper leagues, but he is coming off a goose egg performance against Washington. Chark is top-10 in Air Yards and Average Target Distance and, most notably, No. 2 in Unrealized Air Yards.
Chark’s primary coverage is Cameron Dantzler who ran a 4.64 (9th-percentile) 40-Yard Dash. The other CBs are 32-year-old Patrick Peterson and Chandon Sullivan (18th-percentile 40-Yard Dash). Dantzler’s been picked on this season with a 23.0-percent (No. 80) Target Rate. These potential matchups appear juicy.
The Lions are a six-point underdog in a high-scoring road game in a dome. Only nine other defenses have allowed more receiving yards to WRs this season. This Jared Goff offense is No. 4 in Pace of Play. I won’t be surprised to see Goff and Chark connect on deep plays.