Underdog Best Ball Lineup Targets & Fades for 2026

by Dan Williamson · Featured
underdog lineup targets

The 2026 NFL Draft Combine is in the rear-view mirror, and free agency will begin in earnest on Monday morning when the legal tampering period begins. That means Underdog best ball ADPs will be on the move as drafters react and, at times, wildly overreact to the daily news. There are still values riding below the surface, however, as well as hidden pitfalls aplenty. We’ll look at some of the best and worst lineup value in targets and fades with free agency closing in.

The best overall advice for early-season drafts comes from Warren Buffett:  “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” In the context of drafting, this means many values exist due to uncertainty. Receivers might be undervalued due to questions at quarterback. Any free agent may be undervalued due to a lack of clarity about their playing destination. And sometimes “boring” players provide great value thanks to their lack of sex appeal. Conversely, we’re often too eager to project improvement based on a small sample size of games from the end of last season. We may also over-value a player who performed well the entire season. This could be due to fortunate touchdown luck, or injuries to teammate(s) gifting him an unsustainably large role in the offense that’s unlikely to be repeated.

Let’s dive in, position by position, with undervalued and overvalued players.

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Quarterback Targets

Matthew Stafford

Underdog ADP: 100, QB14

Last season’s QB2 in this format is going at an extreme discount, likely due to age and/or fear of potential injury. Stafford is indeed 38 years old, and he’s likely to regress from last season’s stellar performance. Matthew Stafford has also had injury issues in the past. At this point in the draft, though, we want to swing for the fences. His coach (Sean McVay) is an offensive mastermind, and Stafford himself is an excellent field general. Finally, the offense is well-stocked with difference-making skill players. His setup is ripe for success (again). Barring injury, the Dallas, TX native is a near lock to beat his average draft position (ADP) and provide his managers with numerous spike weeks.

Malik Willis

Underdog ADP: 130, QB21

The only thing holding down Malik Willis‘ ADP is fear. Fear that he could sign with a bad team. Fear that he might not hold onto a starting job. At this ADP, we should be ruled by greed, not fear. What could go right for Willis? Over the past 10 years, every quarterback who has run five-plus times per game and started 16 games has finished as a top-10 fantasy QB. These dual-threat signal-callers also tend to have big spike weeks. This makes for massive playoff-week leverage. Willis epitomizes the value we seek in the double-digit rounds.

Quarterback Fade

Jordan Love

Underdog ADP: 107, QB17

Sure, Jordan Love finished as QB15 in 2025 and  QB17 in 2024, so I guess you could say you’re getting fair value at this price. But what matters most in best ball are ceiling weeks. Over the past two years, Love hasn’t had nearly enough of them to be any sort of a difference-maker. His floor also dips below 15 points far too often… 13 times in the past two years. In 2023, the Utah State alum hit QB5, but defenses have caught on to his game.  As a result, his offense has morphed into a run-heavy unit. In best ball, boring is bad, and Love is B-O-R-I-N-G.

Running Back Targets

RJ Harvey

Underdog ADP: 52, RB22

Like many rookie running backs, RJ Harvey took a few weeks to launch. The wait was worth it, as he was the RB11 overall from Weeks 8-17, with six RB1 finishes in his nine games played. Right now, we can get him as the RB22 as drafters worry about who the Broncos might add to their backfield. They’ll point out that many of Harvey’s best games came after J.K. Dobbins was injured. There’s no doubt the Broncos will add a two-down banger to complement him. Nevertheless, after seeing what Harvey could do for their offense, Denver isn’t going to try to put the toothpaste back in the tube.

Kenneth Gainwell

Underdog ADP: 125, RB38

Last year, Kenneth Gainwell recorded six RB1 weeks with two spikes over 25 fantasy points in Underdog scoring. He did that as a back in a committee. Fear is controlling his ADP as drafters worry about Gainwell’s role wherever he signs. As a free agent, Gainwell is looking to get paid, and he almost certainly will. He demonstrates the ability to excel as a 3rd-down back, blocker, receiver, and in the two-minute drill. He is also a capable early-down runner and a legitimate red zone weapon. He lacks the prototypical size; he will never be a bell-cow, but he can definitely provide regular splash plays even on limited volume. Once he signs as a free agent, his price should spike.

Mike Washington Jr.

Underdog ADP: 161, RB50

By the time you read this, I can almost guarantee Mike Washington Jr.‘s ADP will be earlier than Pick 161. This man frame-mogged every other running back at the combine, including Jeremiyah Love. In fact, “Big Mike” tested better than any rock-toter at the combine since 1986. Heady stuff! We have to remember that the NFL Scouting Combine is just one piece of the puzzle, but I’ll take a chance on generational athleticism at bargain prices all day long.

Washington is built like an anvil with a jet engine strapped to it. His 6.41 yards per carry (YPC) was second-best among all SEC RBs with at least 100 carries in 2025. He’s not just a bruiser between the tackles, either. The 22-year-old acquitted himself nicely in the passing game for Tennessee, with 28 receptions and an 11.0% target share. I’m buying in as long as his price doesn’t soar too high.

Running Back Fades

Cam Skattebo

Underdog ADP: 48, RB21

Honestly, given his brutal injury from last season (a dislocated ankle and broken fibula), Cam Skattebo‘s ADP is simple wishcasting. Lots of fantasy managers were fired up about the fun ride they enjoyed last year and were heartbroken when it abruptly ended. They’re underestimating the severity of his injury. More importantly, they’re forgetting that a new coaching staff is in charge. Fourth-round reality picks are always at risk in those situations. Worse, the Giants are now making noise about signing a big-name free-agent RB. This situation has disaster written all over it. His ADP will need to tumble a long way before I can buy in.

Breece Hall

Underdog ADP: 30, RB15

The New York Jets parole board denied the unjustly-detained Breece Hall his freedom, so there’s no earthly reason to take him at his current ADP. Volume will be hard to come by with Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis both siphoning work. Numerous three-and-outs will also limit his touches. Lastly, this is a bad offense with low touchdown equity. As such, spike weeks will be hard to come by. Best ball managers crave ceiling, not floor. At this price, Breece is squarely in the dead zone. He doesn’t have an environment conducive to anchoring our builds. Nor is he inexpensive enough to represent leverage over the field. His only path to paying off will have to involve a season-long bout of offensive competence from a team that has been flailing aimlessly for over a decade. Go get Kenneth Walker or A.J. Brown instead at this range of the draft.

Wide Receiver Targets

D.J. Moore

Underdog ADP: 94, WR43

At this price, D.J. Moore profiles as a strong value relative to historical production. He has repeatedly demonstrated WR1-level upside — including 1,300+ yard seasons and multi-touchdown spike weeks — yet he’s only being drafted as a WR4. At that price, you’re no longer paying for perfection; you’re buying a proven high-volume target earner at an extreme discount. Wide receivers with his route participation and target-earning profile rarely finish outside the top 24 when healthy. He offers both weekly usability and 30-point playoff-week potential. Once again, we see the market reacting with fear based on the uncertainty over his offseason landing spot, so it’s time for us to get greedy. Run, don’t walk, to smash this amazing bargain before it disappears.

Jalen Coker

Underdog ADP: 118, WR53

Carolina has already signaled that Jalen Coker will be a starting WR for them in 2026, and it’s not hard to see why. From Week 11-18 last year, Coker was the WR26 in Underdog scoring with 3 weekly scores of 16+ points. He finished with a flourish in the playoffs with a nine-catch, 134-yard explosion with a trip to paydirt (23.9 points). That’s the trajectory we want to see, and it’s completely at odds with his current ADP. Bryce Young and Andy Dalton posted a combined 117.8 passer rating when targeting the 6-foot-3 Sterling, VA native. At WR53, you’re paying for a bench receiver but getting a player with a credible path to starting snaps, rising target share, and spike-week potential. That’s exactly the archetype that often beats ADP in large-field best-ball tournaments.

WR Fades

Tetairoa McMillan

Underdog ADP: 31, WR13

Tetairoa McMillan (or “T-Mac”, as he doesn’t like to be called Tet) had a fantastic rookie year, finishing as the WR15 in this format. So is it really that crazy to draft him at WR13? Especially when I’m so bullish on his teammate Coker? The answer is yes. He remains tied to quarterback Young, who barely topped 3,000 passing yards last year. Worse, Coker has shown signs of being a preferred option for Young whenever opposing defenses try to take away T-Mac, as the Rams did in the Wild Card round. These factors are likely to make T-Mac a safer floor play with limited spike weeks. Indeed, last year McMillan topped 20 points only once, and topped 15 points five times. At WR13 pricing, we are essentially betting on a breakout into elite territory, leaving little margin for outcomes where he simply repeats last year’s production.

Davante Adams

Underdog ADP: 42, WR20

Davante Adams will turn 34 years old before the end of the 2026 season. Since 2005, there have only been four seasons where a wideout that old (or older) was able to finish WR20 or better: Terrell Owens (twice), Steve Smith, and Larry Fitzgerald. During that time, there have been over 450 seasons played by WRs who were 33 or older at the start of the season. So that’s worse than  100-1 odds. Do you feel lucky?

Of course, Hall of Fame-caliber players are much, much more likely to age gracefully than their less-talented brethren, but this is still a big hill to climb. Adams is also becoming more and more reliant on touchdowns to remain among the top pass-catchers. It’s not going to help that the Rams offense began to shift to 12- and 13-personnel much more often late in the 2025 season. If that pattern holds, it might be impossible for Adams to pay off his ADP. I would much rather take my chances with Zay Flowers or Devonta Smith, who are going at WR19 and WR21, respectively.

Tight End Target

David Njoku

Underdog ADP: 178, TE23

David Njoku profiles as a classic late-round tight end value. He demonstrated top-5 TE upside in 2023 and has proven ability to be a primary receiving option with multiple spike weeks. At this price, the market is valuing him as a fringe roster piece rather than a player who has already shown the ability to command significant targets and produce tournament-relevant scores. He’s done all this on a Browns team that has been offensively inept during much of the career for the big man from “The U.”

His unrestricted free agency actually increases his upside range. Njoku could land in an offense that needs a featured pass-catching tight end, which historically leads to strong fantasy output at the position. Even a moderate target share (15–18%) permits him to destroy his ADP, especially given his red-zone usage and yards-after-catch ability. In this sort of tournament, late tight ends with a real path to top-10 finishes are extremely valuable. Njoku offers that ceiling at a bargain price, making him an ideal late-round pick with asymmetric upside.

Tight End Fade

Tyler Warren

Underdog ADP: 69, TE4

If you plan to spend a 6th-round pick on a tight end, you really can’t afford to miss with it. You need one who can provide plenty of spike weeks and a stable floor. I’m just not convinced Tyler Warren meets both criteria. He tailed off badly at the end of the season, even before Daniel Jones was injured. Maybe he hit a rookie wall, but it seemed to me that defenses adjusted to take him away. I think he’s priced at his ceiling. Furthermore, a gimpy Daniel Jones that can’t stress defenses with his running is a much less effective passer.

If you can’t get Brock Bowers or Trey McBride early, ignore the TE position until late in your draft. Long after we are down to the dregs of running backs and wideouts, there are still very strong selections available at tight end. Such as… say, Njoku, for example. Especially in a 20-round draft, piecing together a committee of three to four solid TEs with at least one upside option will get you farther than an early TE that doesn’t provide numerous spike weeks. Bottom line, the opportunity cost at RB and WR is just too high to take a gamble on Warren so early in your draft.

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