Dynasty Market Movers – Week 6 Report

by Steve Smith, October 23, 2021

Welcome back to the sixth instalment of the Dynasty Market Movers report. This is the place where risers and fallers on PlayerProfiler’s weekly updated dynasty rankings are discussed to help managers make smart roster decisions. Friends don’t let friends make uninformed decisions with outdated rankings.

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Stock Trending Up

Joe Burrow – QB Cincinnati Bengals

In last Sunday’s tilt with the Detroit Lions, Joe Burrow threw for 271 yards and three touchdowns. He ended Week 6 as the QB8 in fantasy, his best finish of 2021. The sophomore has now delivered fantasy managers three consecutive 20-plus point performances.

Thus far, the 4-2 Bengals have enjoyed positive Game Script (+1.07, No. 9), averaging a low 29.2 Team Pass Attempts Per Game (No. 29). However, Burrow has been efficient. Through six games, he owns a True Completion Percentage of 75-percent (No. 4) and is delivering 8.9 Yards Per Attempt (No. 4). He has at least two TDs in every game this season. Burrow rises two spots to QB9 to join the PlayerProfiler’s QB dynasty rankings Top 10.

Khalil Herbert – RB Chicago Bears

Khalil Herbert was handed his first NFL start versus the Packers in Week 6 and produced admirably. With a 91.4-percent Snap Share, Herbert saw 19 carries and caught two of three targets to post 112 total yards and a score. Fantasy managers that started him were rewarded with an RB11 performance.

Assuming rational coaching, Herbert has put himself in a position to surpass Damien Williams on the Bears’ depth chart; the latter could return from the Covid-19 List this weekend. The rookie gains four spots and 8.52 Lifetime Value points to climb to RB36.

Henry Ruggs – WR Las Vegas Raiders

Henry Ruggs‘ opportunity metrics are not overly exciting, let’s get that out of the way first. He is playing 69.2-percent of snaps (No. 56) with a 15-percent Target Share (No. 62). The positive news is that both of these numbers are improvements on his 2020 marks.

On the season, Ruggs has 20 receptions (No. 49) for 445 yards (No. 14) and two touchdowns. His Average Target Distance of 18.8 (No. 2) and 12 Deep Targets (No. 3) can translate to big plays and boom weeks. Through six games, he has two Top 15 fantasy WR finishes, but also three outside the Top 50. This season, he’s doubling his 2020 fantasy points per game output  and has provided a higher floor. Ruggs’ dynasty stock gains 12.28 Lifetime Value points to climb five spots to WR44.

Zach Ertz – TE Arizona Cardinals

The long awaited Zach Ertz trade has finally materialized. After posting 189 receiving yards and two touchdowns on 18 receptions in six games with the Eagles, the nine year NFL veteran joins an unbeaten Cardinals team. Ertz has averaged 8.2 Fantasy Points Per Game (TE19) to this point in the season.

Ertz will help fill the void at TE left by injured Maxx Williams. He saw a slightly higher Snap Share than Ertz had with the Eagles, but was drawing fewer targets (3.4 per game as compared to Ertz’s 5.2). The move away from Dallas Goedert and into an explosive offense helps Ertz gain five spots in the dynasty rankings. He lands at TE27 following the latest update. Take the advice of the PodFather, consider selling the veteran off of this bump in value.

More notable players with stocks trending up this week: Tua Tagovailoa, Derrick Henry, Rhamondre Stevenson, Emmanuel Sanders, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Mike Gesicki

Stock Trending Down

Taylor Heinicke – QB Washington Football Team

After posting Top 12 QB performances from Weeks 2-4, Taylor Heinicke has stumbled of late. Through six weeks, Heinicke fantasy production trend has been clear cut. Managers have had a 50-percent chance of him delivering over 20 fantasy points or a 50-percent chance of seeing about 10 points. Flip a coin.

Through six games, Heinicke has 198 pass attempts (No. 18) throwing for 1,390 yards (No. 24) and nine touchdowns (No. 16). He has 127 rushing yards (No. 8). Similar to his up and down fantasy production, he has 11 Money Throws (No. 11) but also ranks No. 2 with 20 Danger Plays and 19 Interceptable Passes. A match-up with the Packers awaits the WFT in Week 7, I’m betting on an appearance from 20-point Heinicke. For now, his slump has him dropping 4.41 Lifetime Value points (the most of any QB) to fall to three spots to QB32.

Nyheim Hines – RB Indianapolis Colts

In the past three games, Nyheim Hines has averaged a Snap Share of 32-percent. He played a season low 23.4-percent of snaps in the Colts’ Week 6 rout of the Texans. During this three-week span, Hines has earned just 10 carries and five targets.

Nyheim Hines Game Log – Week 1-6 2021

With Jonathan Taylor dominating backfield touches and trade candidate Marlon Mack recently getting five carries per week, Hines’ usage has been limited. He’s produced a total of 6.1 points in fantasy football. Best kept on benches until his opportunity metrics improve, Hines’ dynasty value loses 6.41 Lifetime Value points to slip to RB44.

Nelson Agholor – WR New England Patriots

After his breakout season with the Raiders in 2020, Nelson Agholor signed a two-year, 22-million dollar contract with the Patriots last spring. The expectation for many fantasy gamers was that he’d continue his production, especially with Mac Jones earning the starting job. Sadly, fantasy managers are still waiting for it to happen.

Nelson Agholor Productivity and Efficiency Metrics 2021

Agholor’s snaps and targets have trended downward over the last three weeks. In Week 6, he play as season low 56-percent of snaps (18 routes) catching one of his three targets for 27 yards. Since Week 1, Agholor hasn’t produced an outing better than WR56 in fantasy with three weeks outside the Top 70. Agholor’s stock drops seven spots to fall to a ranking of WR83.

David Njoku – TE Cleveland Browns

Uber athlete, David Njoku was the TE2 in Week 5 after catching all seven of his targets for 149 yards and a touchdown. In Week 6, he came crashing down playing a season low 41.8-percent of snaps catching one of two targets for six scoreless yards.

Njoku is operating as the Browns’ second TE behind Austin Hooper. He is fourth on the team in targets. On the season, Njoku has delivered two fantasy outing over 10 points but also has four games under 5 fantasy points. Realistically, no Browns tight end has been a reliable fantasy option thus far in 2021. Njoku loses 3.32 Lifetime Value points and two spots to fall to TE26.

More notable players with stocks trending down this week: Baker Mayfield, Myles Gaskin, Larry Rountree, Jalen Reagor, Jamison Crowder, Jonnu Smith