It’s a Trap! | 2026’s Biggest Dynasty ADP Mistakes Right Now

by Wyatt Bertolone · Featured
dynasty adp mistakes

In fantasy football, it’s important to find every edge you can. In dynasty, you need to be doing so at all times. Monitoring different dynasty marketplaces to identify player values by ADP that are out of line to avoid mistakes is paramount to success.

***ADPs listed are via Sleeper dynasty superflex as of May 20, 2026***

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2026’s Current Dynasty ADP Pitfalls

Kyren Williams | RB, Los Angeles Rams | ADP 58 (RB15)

Kyren Williams has been proving the naysayers wrong his entire NFL career. Since his second season in the NFL, Williams has been the stalwart of the Rams’ backfield and has produced for fantasy. However, his production has dropped every year. In 2023, Williams scored 21.3 PPR PPG, followed up in 2024 with 17, and finished with 15.5 in 2025. Last season was especially notable because the drop in production was due to backfield-mate Blake Corum taking on a larger role. Now, reports indicate that Corum could see even more run in 2026.

I still expect Williams to retain the bulk of the passing-game work for the backfield, but I also do expect Corum to split the rushing work as he did in 2025. Williams is valued a bit too highly across dynasty marketplaces for his projection moving forward. Right now, it’s possible to tier down from Williams to other running backs like Cam Skattebo, Travis Etienne, Javonte Williams, Bhayshul Tuten, Derrick Henry, or D’Andre Swift. All of them have projections that are similar to or better than Williams’s.

Luther Burden | WR, Chicago Bears | ADP 40 (WR14)

Luther Burden was a polarizing prospect entering the NFL. He was one of the best recruits in the county going into college and had an incredible sophomore season, but his junior season raised red flags due to his production. As a rookie, Burden played sparingly while flashing high-end potential when given opportunity, evidenced by his 2.79 Yards per Route Run. The problem was that those opportunities came at the expense of others’ injuries. Now that D.J. Moore has been traded to the Bills, Burden is everyone’s favorite 2026 breakout pick.

While it’s true that some target competition is out of Burden’s way, plenty still exists. Rome Odunze was well on his way to his own breakout in 2025 before an injury slowed him down. Colston Loveland — drafted before Burden — ascended throughout the season and became quarterback Caleb Williams‘ go-to target well into the playoffs. It’s going to be hard for Burden to live up to the current hype. I’m using Burden to tier down to others like DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, or Zay Flowers.

RELATED: In the Crosshairs | Dynasty’s Biggest “Buy High” and “Sell Low” Players in 2026

Kyler Murray | QB, Minnesota Vikings | ADP 84 (QB23)

2025 was rock bottom for Kyler Murray. He scored just 16.2 FPPG, a career low, in the five games he played before a foot injury mysteriously kept him out the rest of the season. We all know what was really happening. The Cardinals had no interest in winning games anymore and planned to move on from Murray, so they kept him on the bench. After a bit of an offseason waiting period, he signed with the Vikings on a one-year deal to resurrect his career. Minnesota is a great spot for Murray, with strong pass-game weapons and a proven top offensive scheme.

I don’t know what the concern for Murray would be that he’s ranked so low across dynasty marketplaces. Whenever the former Aggie has been healthy, he’s been a top 12 quarterback in fantasy. Maybe people are worried about his future since he only signed a one-year deal with the Vikings. However, Murray had multiple suitors this offseason and will again next offseason if he doesn’t re-sign with the Vikings. Tier down from CJ Stroud, Sam Darnold, or Cam Ward to Murray.

Chuba Hubbard | RB, Carolina Panthers | ADP 101 (RB26)

Chuba Hubbard was a revelation in 2024. With Jonathon Brooks returning from injury midway through the season (for three games), before being lost again, Hubbard produced. He scored 16.1 PPR PPG, although under the hood, Hubbard’s advanced metrics were a bit lacking, and he performed under his 16.9 Expected PPR PPG. But 2025 was a different story. Picking up a calf injury early in the season opened the door for Rico Dowdle, who played out of his mind. When Hubbard returned, he was Dowdle’s backup. He eventually turned it into more of a split by season’s end, but the damage was done. For 2025, Hubbard averaged only 8.4 PPR PPG.

Dowdle moved on to the Steelers this offseason, but now Brooks is expected to be healthy for the 2026 season, and all the press coming out of Carolina is pumping him up. Meanwhile, Chuba Hubbard is getting any press at all. Even without injury, Hubbard could have his role reduced again in 2026. I’m using Hubbard to tier down to other running backs with similar scoring potential, like Rhamondre Stevenson, Jaylen Warren, or Dowdle.

Isaiah Likely | TE, New York Giants | ADP 126 (TE15)

I guess I’m making it part of my personality this offseason to preach that Isaiah Likely is overpriced. He’s a fine player and has flashed high-end ability at times, but the only time he wasn’t overvalued was during his rookie season. After that, he vaulted up dynasty rankings, sometimes even reaching the top 12 at his position. Unfortunately, though, he never performed like one. His career high in PPR PPG is 7.7, and he’s coming off a poor 4.4 PPR PPG performance in 2025.

Dynasty managers are reinvigorated with Isaiah Likely due to his signing with the Giants. His three-year, $40 million contract looks great on the surface; that’s just how much tight ends in free agency get paid these days. Likely will still have to compete with Theo Johnson, who is a better in-line tight end, for playing time. Right now, there are plenty of options to tier down to from Likely, who will provide similar or better production than him over the next couple of years. Go out and buy George Kittle, Mark Andrews, Chigoziem Okonkwo, or Gunnar Helm.

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