This is the Air Yards DFS Value Index for Week 7!
The goal of the Air Yards DFS Value Index is to determine the best “bang for your buck” in daily fantasy. This is accomplished by utilizing a player’s Air Yards and Air Yards Share to create a weighted Air Yards metric. We then compare this metric with each player’s DFS salary to create a Value Score.
The Best Values
The best value Air Yards play on the week is always scored with a value of 100. All other players are compared against that player with decreasing value. This list is not a mere recitation of where each player is ranked — a simple machine could do that. This list contextualizes each player’s Value Score so as to present the top ten Air Yard values in DFS for the week, focusing on players priced at or below $5,500 on DraftKings.
We will highlight two wide receivers on the Air Yards Value Index priced above $5,500 and then focus on the top ten Air Yards value plays priced at $5,500 or below on DraftKings.
Tyler Lockett – DK: $5,800
Air Yards Value Score: 100
Air Yards: 617 (No. 7 among qualified wide receivers)
Air Yards Share: 37.9-percent (No. 6)
Unrealized Air Yards: 242 (No. 23)
Tyler Lockett returns to the paying-up section again this week after posting a dud performance last week scoring only 3.7 fantasy points against the Arizona Cardinals. Despite his poor performance, Lockett saw 79 Air Yards and is essentially seeing the same opportunities in the Seahawks’ passing game as D.K. Metcalf. Lockett has five more Air Yards than Metcalf on the season despite seeing five fewer targets. Priced at $800 less than Metcalf, Lockett is the preferred value play in a game against the Chargers that has the potential of being the highest-scoring game on the slate.
Amari Cooper – DK: $6,100
Air Yards Value Score: 97.62
Air Yards: 645 (No. 4)
Air Yards Share: 37.2-percent (No. 11)
Unrealized Air Yards: 346 (No. 2)
Like Lockett, Amari Cooper also made last week’s paying-up section and unlike Lockett did not disappoint. Cooper finished as the WR24 on the week against a tough Patriots secondary. He saw a whopping 12 targets and 151 Air Yards with the Browns in comeback mode. Cooper remains the focal point of the Browns’ passing attack that could be in catch-up mode again facing Lamar Jackson and an exploitable Ravens Secondary. He makes for a great play in all formats this week.
Top-10 Value Plays
10) Rashod Bateman – DK: $5,200
Air Yards Value Score: 44.35
Air Yards: 317 (No. 52)
Air Yards Share: 29.3-percent (No. 27)
Unrealized Air Yards: 193 (No. 36)
Set to return from a foot injury that has sidelined him the past two games, Rashod Bateman will slide back into his role as the Ravens’ WR1. Averaging 14.4 yards of target distance, Bateman has the chance to catch a deep ball and score lots of fantasy points in the process. Unfortunately, he is only averaging 5.5 targets per game which substantially limits his floor. I would be interested in having some tournament lineup exposure this week.
9) Alec Pierce – DK: $4,600
Air Yards Value Score: 45.86
Air Yards: 330 (No. 47)
Air Yards Share: 25.7-percent (No. 41)
Unrealized Air Yards: 102 (No. 73)
Alec Pierce has firmly secured the WR2 role in Indianapolis. He has seen at least 70 Air Yards in the last four contests and is averaging 12.8 fantasy points during that time frame. It would be surprising if the Colts air it out against the Titans as they did last week against the Jaguars. However, Pierce would be an appealing option across all formats if this were to happen.
8) Marquez Valdes-Scantling – DK: $4,400
Air Yards Value Score: 46.80
Air Yards: 373 (No. 41)
Air Yards Share: 22.2-percent (No. 55)
Unrealized Air Yards: 195 (No. 35)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling posted the dreaded doughnut in last week’s shoot-out that never was against the Bills. He was targeted in the endzone on a pass that was intercepted and only saw 39 Air Yards last week. It seems like the 100-plus Air Yard weeks from his Packer days are long behind him. He is a budget-saving cash play only.
7) Drake London – DK: $4,900
Air Yards Value Score: 59.04
Air Yards: 416 (No. 31)
Air Yards Share: 30.9-percent (No. 24)
Unrealized Air Yards: 224 (No. 28)
Drake London posted a season-low 36 Air Yards last week and failed to crest double-digit fantasy points for the third consecutive week. After seeing at least 86 Air yards in his first three games, London has seen at most 58 Air Yards in his past three games. He is going to have to get back to his early season usage in order to be tournament viable.
6) Josh Reynolds – DK: $4,700
Air Yards Value Score: 59.13
Air Yards: 428 (No. 27)
Air Yards Share: 26.1-percent (No. 38)
Unrealized Air Yards: 173 (No. 43)
Josh Reynolds returns from a bye week as the Lions leader with 428 Air Yards. He remains a downfield target for Jared Goff sporting a 12.6 ADOT. He will likely compete for these deep ball targets with D.J. Chark if Chark returns in Week 7. Both players are worthy of consideration in tournament lineups.
5) Donovan Peoples-Jones – DK: $4,100
Air Yards Value Score: 60.13
Air Yards: 415 (No. 32)
Air Yards Share: 23.9-percent (No. 47)
Unrealized Air Yards: 183 (No. 41)
Donovan Peoples-Jones has averaged 101 Air Yards in his past three games. He has registered double-digit fantasy points in two out of those three contests. He is a fine cash game option if you are looking to save your budget.
4) Mack Hollins – DK: $4,600
Air Yards Value Score: 60.42
Air Yards: 434 (No. 25)
Air Yards Share: 25.8-percent (No. 40)
Unrealized Air Yards: 214 (No. 31)
Mack Hollins is coming off the dreaded doughnut against Kansas City in week five. However, he saw over 100 Air Yards in that contest and has failed to see less than 75 Air Yards in the past three games. Outside of Davante Adams, Hollins is the downfield perimeter threat for the Raiders and has a low-key great matchup against the Texans this week. Get him in your tournament lineup.
A Mack Hollins tweet disguised as a Davante Adams tweet. https://t.co/XvPhHmGp9W
— ECDeLauter (@FF_Litigator) October 19, 2022
3) Corey Davis – DK: $4,700
Air Yards Value Score: 75.24
Air Yards: 520 (No. 17)
Air Yards Share: 27.4-percent (No. 33)
Unrealized Air Yards: 230 (No. 25)
Corey Davis should be viewed as the Jets representative on the list. Both Elijah Moore and Garrett Wilson have Air Yards Value Scores that fall within the top ten but are not included in the article. This is because the Air Yards numbers for all Jets are a bit deceiving as the offense has drastically changed since Zach Wilson‘s return. For instance, Davis went from averaging 105 Air Yards per game with Joe Flacco throwing him the football to seeing only 65 Air Yards per game with Wilson. Squaring off against a stout Broncos secondary this week, it is unlikely that Davis, and the rest of the Jets receivers, recapture their past opportunities. Davis can only be considered a galaxy brain desperation contrarian play this week.
2) Nico Collins – DK: $4,200
Air Yards Value Score: 78.67
Air Yards: 407 (No. 35)
Air Yards Share: 32.7-percent (No. 23)
Unrealized Air Yards: 193 (No. 36)
Nico Collins has maintained his lead in Air Yards over veteran Brandin Cooks in the Texans’ passing game. He saw 80 Air Yards last game compared to Cooks who saw only 28 Air Yards. If I’m building lineups, and want exposure to the Texans’ passing game, Collins is clearly the better value than Cooks.
1) D.J. Moore – DK: $4,900
Air Yards Value Score: 81.46
Air Yards: 429 (No. 26)
Air Yards Share: 37.5-percent (No. 9)
Unrealized Air Yards: 279 (No. 13)
It brings me great sadness to report that D.J. Moore Air Yards are prayer yards this season. It brings me even more sadness to report that he may not be seeing large quantities of these Air Yards moving forward if P.J. Walker remains his quarterback. Moore posted a season-low 35 Air Yards last week. The dream is dead and until Moore gets a competent quarterback he is nowhere in my lineups.
Good luck to everyone in Week 7. May all your Air Yards be realized.