This is the Air Yards DFS Value Index for Week 5! Chris Olave returns and another rookie tops the charts.
The goal of the Air Yards DFS Value Index is to determine the best “bang for your buck” in daily fantasy. This is accomplished by utilizing a player’s Air Yards and Air Yards Share to create a weighted Air Yards metric. We then compare this metric with each player’s DFS salary to create a Value Score.
The Best Values
The best value Air Yards play on the week is always scored with a value of 100. All other players are compared against that player with decreasing value. This list is not a mere recitation of where each player is ranked — a simple machine could do that. This list contextualizes each player’s Value Score so as to present the top ten Air Yard values in DFS for the week, focusing on players priced at or below $5,500 on DraftKings.
We will highlight two wide receivers on the Air Yards Value Index priced above $5,500 and then focus on the top ten Air Yards value plays priced at $5,500 or below on DraftKings.
Chris Olave – DK: $5,700
Air Yards Value Score: 100
Air Yards: 577 (No. 1 among qualified wide receivers)
Air Yards Share: 36.0-percent (No. 10)
Unrealized Air Yards: 299 (No. 1)
Chris Olave saw over 100 Air Yards for the third consecutive week and continues to break the value index. Olave was the Saints leading receiver with Michael Thomas hobbled by a toe injury seeing seven targets. He leads the league in both Air Yards and Unrealized Air Yards meaning that no matter who is throwing him the football, be it Jameis Winston, or Andy Dalton, he is going to have slate-breaking potential. Olave has not reached his ceiling and is in a great spot to finally do so this week against a Seahawks secondary that was recently lit up by the Detroit Lions. He is a must-play wide receiver in all formats at his cost.
CeeDee Lamb – DK: $7,000
Air Yards Value Score: 77.56
Air Yards: 458 (No. 2)
Air Yards Share: 43.2-percent (No. 3)
Unrealized Air Yards: 268 (No. 2)
After being very close to making the list last week, CeeDee Lamb finds himself on the list this week after seeing 102 Air Yards and finishing with 21.7 fantasy points last week. After a troubling week one performance in which Lamb saw 11 targets and finished with only 4.9 fantasy points, the Cowboys WR1 has finished inside the top 24 wide receivers the past three weeks. Lamb is locked and loaded as the Cowboys primary option even with Michael Gallup returning as Lamb saw 73 more Air Yards than his previously injured teammate. Lamb should continue to feast against a Rams secondary that has been exploited this season despite the presence of Jalen Ramsey.
Top-10 Value Plays
10) Josh Reynolds – DK: $4,900
Air Yards Value Score: 40.50
Air Yards: 312 (No. 27)
Air Yards Share: 23.2-percent (No. 45)
Unrealized Air Yards: 127 (No. 39)
Folks, I present to you Josh Reynolds, this years WR25 in total fantasy points, just like we drew it all up. Reynolds also hit as the chalk last week scoring 21.1 fantasy where he was essentially the last man stating in the Detroit’s wide receiver room. He is coming off two consecutive weeks seeing at least 79 Air Yards including a a 164 Air Yard outing in week three. He is someone I want exposure too in all formats especially if D.J. Chark and Amon-Ra St. Brown remain out due to injury.
9) Jakobi Meyers – DK: $4,800
Air Yards Value Score: 40.65
Air Yards: 207 (No. 53)
Air Yards Share: 34.3-percent (No. 48)
Unrealized Air Yards: 79 (No. 60)
Jakobi Meyers hasn’t played since week two when he finished as the WR18 posting 18.5 fantasy points and seeing 118 Air Yards. While the Patriots presumed starting quarterback has changed since week 2, Meyers will likely resume his viable cash play role as soon as he is able to see the field again.
8) D.J. Moore – DK: $5,200
Air Yards Value Score: 44.21
Air Yards: 257 (No. 39)
Air Yards Share: 32.6-percent (No. 17)
Unrealized Air Yards: 144 (No. 29)
Seeing D.J. Moore on the Value Plays list has become an annual tradition of dismay and despair. While he has seen at least 50 Air Yards in every game this season, Moore has yet to finish as a top 24 wide receiver. Attached the anchor that is Matt Rhule and a woefully inefficient Baker Mayfield, D.J. Moore is struggling to get the surface of fantasy viability let alone DFS consideration. While Moore is priced below $5,500 for the first time all season, I am not eager to insert him into any lineups.
7) Elijah Moore – DK: $5,000
Air Yards Value Score: 44.41
Air Yards: 358 (No. 19)
Air Yards Share: 22.6-percent (No. 50)
Unrealized Air Yards: 196 (No. 13)
In Zach Wilson‘s return as starting quarterback last week, Elijah Moore trailed both Corey Davis and Garrett Wilson in targets, seeing only four on the week. Yikes. However, he saw 54 Air Yards which was second among all Jets. It is unlikely that Wilson’s return translates to high-ceiling games for Elijah Moore, and he is best used in cash lineups, if at all, for now.
6) D.J. Chark – DK: $4,800
Air Yards Value Score: 47.38
Air Yards: 284 (No. 33)
Air Yards Share: 29.2-percent (No. 30)
Unrealized Air Yards: 208 (No. 9)
D.J. Chark missed the Lions’ shootout last week with injury but prior to week four, he had been the Lions leader in Air Yards. He should regain that title from Josh Reynolds this week assuming Chark is healthy enough to play. Chark has seen at least 71 Air Yards in the three games he has played in this season and is the preferred play over Reynolds if he is active in Week 5.
5) Marvin Jones – DK: $4,200
Air Yards Value Score: 48.59
Air Yards: 265 (No. 37)
Air Yards Share: 28.0-percent (No. 35)
Unrealized Air Yards: 171 (No. 18)
Marvin Jones finished with the dreaded doughnut last week. To make matters even worse, he saw only one target in a game the Jaguars had been trailing since the half. While Jones only saw seven Air Yards last week, he remains a viable tournament dart throw based on his prior performances in which he averaged 86 Air Yards the first three weeks of the season.
4) Garrett Wilson – DK: $5,200
Air Yards Value Score: 52.51
Air Yards: 397 (No. 15)
Air Yards Share: 25.0-percent (No. 40)
Unrealized Air Yards: 214 (No. 7)
With Zach Wilson‘s return to the lineup, Garrett Wilson saw a career-low 45 Air Yards in Week 4. This figure was also third among the Jets’ wide receivers. However, Wilson did out-snap Corey Davis for the first time all season and will likely continue to do so as the season continues. He is likely the safest Jets receiver to have exposure to in DFS and makes for an interesting cash play.
3) Corey Davis – DK: $5,100
Air Yards Value Score: 57.95
Air Yards: 413 (No. 8)
Air Yards Share: 26.1-percent (No. 39)
Unrealized Air Yards: 201 (No. 11)
Old habits die hard as the Jets WR1 last season under Zach Wilson was the Jets WR1 when Wilson returned to the lineup as starting quarterback. Corey Davis finished with a team-high 98 Air Yards and seven targets. At the moment Davis is the Jet I’m playing in tournaments.
2) Nico Collins – DK: $4,100
Air Yards Value Score: 64.99
Air Yards: 327 (No. 24)
Air Yards Share: 29.7-percent (No. 28)
Unrealized Air Yards: 167 (No. 19)
Nico Collins has more Air Yards than Brandin Cooks this season. Collins has also seen at least 100 Air Yards in half of his games this season. Unfortunately, Davis Mills’s efficiency as a passer is near the bottom of the league. This makes Collins a dart throw entering week five.
1) George Pickens – DK: $4,300
Air Yards Value Score: 71.80
Air Yards: 399 (No. 13)
Air Yards Share: 28.2-percent (No. 34)
Unrealized Air Yards: 256 (No. 3)
George Pickens led the Steelers with 157 Air Yards last week and is only three Air Yards behind Dionte Johnson for the season leader in Air Yards among Steelers. Pickens will likely soon be the leader among Steelers wide receivers in Air Yards with Kenny Pickett now at quarterback. Pickett had more Deep Ball Attempts in his 13 pass attempts (4) than Mitch Trubisky had all season (1). Pickens has massive blow-up potential entering Week 5 and is a great play in all formats.
In a move that surprises absolutely nobody:
The Pittsburgh Steelers have announced Kenny Pickett is their starting QB.
— PlayerProfiler NFL (@Profiler_NFL) October 4, 2022
Good luck to everyone in Week 5. May all your Air Yards be realized.