Week 16 is here, which means it’s the fantasy football semifinals for most of us. Whether you’re coming off a well-earned bye, just managed to eke out a win in round one, or you’re desperately avoiding that last-place punishment for your league, there’s plenty left to play for. I’m here to shed light on some key matchups to take advantage of, and some to avoid. So let’s dive in!
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Quarterback
Start: Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert‘s Athletic Profile
Justin Herbert comes into Week 16 as the QB11 on the season. But he hasn’t posted a QB1 performance since Week 9 against the Titans, where he finished as the QB4 against Tennessee’s quarterback-friendly defense. After a string of less friendly matchups, Herbert is poised to shine again as the Chargers are set to go to Dallas this week to face the Cowboys.
The Cowboys are allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, a ranking they have held virtually all season. In a matchup where Dallas is likely to use their stud wide receivers, look for Herbert & Co. to crank up the passing game to keep pace. Early and often, the former Duck will attack the Cowboys and their 31st-ranked secondary according to Pro Football Focus.
Honorable Mention: Jared Goff
Sit: Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence is coming off a historic performance in which he accounted for six total touchdowns en route to a 44.3 fantasy output. Nevertheless, I’m suggesting we bench the former overall No. 1 pick.
The reason is quite simple: the Denver Broncos ‘ defense has been a problem for opposing offenses all season. More specifically, they’ve allowed the sixth-fewest points per game to opposing quarterbacks. The Broncos are tough against the run, too, so Lawrence could have the passing volume to get by as a desperate streaming option. But I would heavily manage expectations for T-Law this week.
Honorable Mention: Jordan Love
Running Back
Start: Rico Dowdle
Rico Dowdle outcarried Chuba Hubbard 16-8 last week, coming out of the Panthers’ Week 14 bye. With the team in the midst of an unlikely push for the division title, look for head coach Dave Canales to lean on his more explosive back down the stretch.
Rico Dowdle‘s Explosive Rating
Week 16 pits the Panthers against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs allow the ninth-most PPR points per game to opposing running backs. Of course, Hubbard is a talented back in his own right, and will certainly factor in, capping Dowdle’s ceiling. But the matchup and the playoff implications point to a comfortable RB2 week for the former undrafted Gamecock.
Honorable Mentions: Quinshon Judkins, Aaron Jones
Sit: Kenneth Walker
K9 comes into Week 16 as the RB25 on the season, a far cry from the high-end RB2 option many of us drafted him to be. Just in case you were thinking about testing the waters again here in the playoff semifinals, I’m here to talk you off the ledge. The talented back’s boom weeks have been few and very far in between. Despite his 118 Explosive Rating (good for fifth in the league) and his 13 Breakaway Runs (sixth), his Snap Share is less than 50%.
Week 16 brings a minus matchup to boot. Kenneth Walker, Zach Charbonnet, and the Seahawks take on the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday Night Football. The Rams have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. Let’s look elsewhere for production for our flex spot this week.
Honorable Mentions: Tony Pollard, Kenneth Gainwell
Wide Receiver
Start: Justin Jefferson
START YOUR STUDS. If you think J-Jettas is no longer a stud, then that’s your business. But let’s be real, this guy is one of the best receivers in the game right now. After yet another dud with the still very young J.J. McCarthy, the rapport obviously hasn’t been what we had hoped. But if you made it this far with the talented former Tiger, Week 16 offers another favorable matchup.
The Vikings stay on the road and will play the New York Giants in East Rutherford, N.J., on Sunday. The Giants have been letting receivers have their way with them all year, allowing the fourth-most PPR points per game to the position. As bad as it has been, I can’t condone benching him unless you are absolutely stacked. Let’s start Justin Jefferson, keeping in mind he is a WR2/flex option at this point.
Honorable Mentions: Ladd McConkey, Ricky Pearsall
Sit: Terry McLaurin
Terry McLaurin has had an up-and-down kind of season when he’s been healthy. Look for Week 16 to be of the “down” variety.
This week, the Commanders play the Eagles in the first of their two matchups over the next three weeks. Since about Week 3 this year, stud second-year cornerback Quinyon Mitchell has often been asked to follow the opposition’s best receiver across the formation. If that is the case this week, it will be a tall order for McLaurin to have a big day; Mitchell has allowed only a 43% completion percentage and a 62.6 passer rating.
Honorable Mentions: Emeka Egbuka, Wan’Dale Robinson
Tight End
Start: Darren Waller
Darren Waller is a significant red zone threat whenever he can get on the field for the Dolphins this year. He’s coming off a monster game against the Steelers in which he caught seven of his eight targets for 66 yards and two touchdowns. In fact, he’s had at least one red zone target in all but two of his games this year, one of which was the Week 7 game in Cleveland when he sustained the pectoral injury that landed him on IR.
Week 16 grants the 2015 sixth-round pick the best matchup possible. The Cincinnati Bengals have been a punching bag for opposing tight ends all year, allowing the most fantasy points per game to the position regardless of scoring format. In PPR scoring, the next closest team, the Pittsburgh Steelers, allows almost six fewer points per game than the Bengals. Start Waller and feel good about your TE spot this week.
Honorable Mention: Colby Parkinson
Sit: Dalton Schultz
Dalton Schultz is coming off an impressive outing last week versus the Arizona Cardinals, who have allowed the ninth-most points per game to opposing tight ends this year. This week (and next week, in fact) is a different story. The hapless Raiders may seem like an “all systems go” type of matchup, but the Raiders allow the fourth-fewest points to the TE position. Look for Stroud to attack this defense with his expansive group of talented wide receivers, leaving Schultz as little more than a desperate streaming option.
Honorable Mention: Jake Ferguson
That’s all for this week. Next stop, CHAMPIONSHIP MATCH!
As always, thank you for reading!
Feel free to hit me up on X, Instagram, or Bluesky to let me know if you agree or disagree, or to share your own lineup dilemmas!
Many Successes,
Kyle
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