Who had Atlanta going into Carolina and getting blanked 30-0 on their Week 3 bingo card? How about the Cleveland Browns taking down the surging Green Bay Packers? Yes, Week 3 was indeed another wild one, full of unexpected results, blocked kicks everywhere, thrilling finishes, and (perhaps a week late for my liking), the return of Mark Andrews!
Some of my “Starts” again failed to deliver (I’m looking at you, Dak Prescott), and some “Sits” produced above expectation, i.e., J.K. Dobbins. The biggest miss for me last week, however, was sitting Jake Ferguson, who went off. The Dallas tight end put up 21.2 PPR points without even scoring a touchdown! It’s hard to say his day would have been as productive (or if Prescott would have fared better) if star receiver CeeDee Lamb hadn’t gone down in the first quarter and missed the rest of the game. But such is life, and life in fantasy football provides frequent reminders of how tentative things can be.
I learned a few years ago, in another part of my life, that it isn’t wise to take stock of oneself in red ink only. So, with that being said, you helped your chances last week if you were able to get Jordan Mason and “honorable mention” Daniel Jones into your lineups. Keeping Trevor Lawrence and Stefon Diggs out of them also proved to be judicious moves in Week 3.
But that was last week. We will glean from it what we can and move on. Let’s see what we have in front of us regarding Week 4 of the NFL and fantasy football seasons.
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Quarterback
Start: Jordan Love
The Green Bay Packers were stunned last week, losing to the Cleveland Browns 13-10 in what was a bit of a snoozer. Love was relatively efficient, however, completing 18 of his paltry 25 pass attempts.
Their Week 4 matchup suggests that a different game script is in store for the Packers as they travel to Dallas to take on the 1-2 Cowboys. Dallas ranks at the bottom of the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. After holding the Eagles to 24 points in Week 1, they have allowed more than 30 points in the two subsequent games. Look for head coach Matt LaFleur to dial up open looks, and for Love to get back to a higher average depth of target.
Honorable Mention: Justin Fields
Sit: Kyle Murray
Since the Cardinals’ Week 1 win against the Saints, Kyler Murray has not eclipsed 15 fantasy points. He has also yet to gain 40 rushing yards in any of their first three games.
Murray is an explosive player with the athleticism and talent to break out in any game he is in. However, Week 4 is an inopportune time to bank on a dramatic increase in production. Seattle’s defense has been stingy to date this season, ranking second in the league in defensive scoring. In what figures to be a tough divisional matchup on a Thursday night, I’d advise you to seek out other options at quarterback.
Honorable Mention: Dak Prescott
Running Back
Start: D’Andre Swift
Week 3 saw the Chicago offense begin to take shape under the new, offense-minded head coach, Ben Johnson. As the primary running back, D’Andre Swift will be heavily involved. Last week, Swift saw only 13 carries, but also chipped in as one of four Bears who caught three receptions.
This week, the Bears travel to Las Vegas to clash with the Raiders. The Raiders struggled mightily against the Commanders up front last week. The game was over long before the score indicated it was out of reach, as the Commanders dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball for much of the game. Meanwhile, the Bears’ new additions to the interior offensive line, Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, and Drew Dalman, are beginning to gel.
Through two weeks, the five-year veteran from Georgia ranks tenth in target share and twelfth in Yards Created. And even as this offense begins to open up, getting rookies Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland more involved, D’Andre Swift has his role as the team’s RB1 locked down until further notice. Fire him up in your RB2 slots this week, regardless of format.
Honorable Mentions: Trey Benson, TreVeyon Henderson
Sit: Jacory Croskey-Merritt
The late seventh-round selection from April’s Draft has impressed from the start of training camp. He looked pretty good last week, too! The problem here is volume. Though Jacory Croskey-Merritt has acquired almost a cult following in the fantasy streets, the team opted for a three-man rotation in the absence of veteran Austin Ekeler.
Another problem here is that all three Washington RBs looked capable last week against the aforementioned Las Vegas Raiders. Croskey-Merritt looked a little better than his 3.25 yards per carry might suggest, and he also scored a touchdown. Chris Rodriguez had a couple of nice runs early and finished with eleven attempts, averaging just over 3.5 yards per carry. Then third-down specialist Jeremy McNichols, not to be outdone, ripped off a 60-yard touchdown run, refusing to be caught from behind.
As bad as Atlanta was last week, they are still top ten in points allowed to opposing running backs. Let’s leave JCM on the bench until the team shows us they trust him with a little more volume.
Honorable Mentions: Rhamondre Stevenson, RJ Harvey
Wide Receiver
Start: Matthew Golden
Matthew Golden Athletic Profile and Workout Metrics
Is this the first-ever “Start/Sit Stack”? I doubt it, but a juicy matchup like this often lends itself to high expectations at more than one position. Indeed, it feels like I’m going out on a limb here, and maybe I am, but hear me out! Last week, rookie Matthew Golden saw his snap share jump from 59% in Week 2 to 71%. The rookie was out on the field in two-receiver sets for most of the game, out-snapping Dontayvion Wicks in those instances. Golden was able to catch all four of his targets and added another three touches on the ground.
Keep in mind that the Packers ran only 56 plays in Week 3, a few below the young league average this year of 61.1. In recent years, the average has actually tended to level out at around 63. In future games (a little foreshadowing here), we should see his usage take yet another bump when the team runs more plays.
Week 4 should provide the perfect environment for one of those “future games.” After Week 3, the Cowboys are still ranked last in points allowed to opposing wide receivers. I’m confident with Golden in my WR3 slot this week. He’s also a viable flex option in leagues starting two wide receivers.
Honorable Mentions: Michael Pittman, Keenan Allen
Sit: Tee Higgins
Week 3 was a tough one for backup quarterback Jake Browning and the Cincinnati Bengals. Veteran wideout Tee Higgins saw only two targets on a day to be forgotten for the Bengals.
While Ja’Marr Chase and Chase Brown also had terrible days (Brown had three yards on ten carries. Good God, man!), their volume, as the top players at their respective positions, is much safer. Higgins will have to battle to be effective with fewer opportunities as a result of the offense having fewer opportunities overall, lowering his floor dramatically.
Week 4 does not look to be the week for things to start trending up. The Denver Broncos flaunt one of the top defenses in the league. Let’s leave Higgins on the bench for this one.
Honorable Mentions: Calvin Ridley, Wan’Dale Robinson
Tight End
Start: Juwan Johnson
It seems the veteran tight end from New Orleans has finally broken free of the “streamer” label and has become an every-week starter. This is more of a public service announcement. Always start Juwan Johnson! A couple of weeks ago, I took a water bet, putting myself on the side of rookie Harold Fannin Jr. outscoring Johnson. Needless to say, I got wet.
Juwan Johnson Explosive Rating
Week 4 is a tough matchup, with the Buffalo Bills ranking second in PPR points per game allowed to the position. But regardless of the matchup, Johnson is an integral part of this passing attack. New head coach Kellen Moore has made that clear. Fire him up!
Honorable Mention: Travis Kelce
Sit: Dallas Goedert
The Eagles’ tight end was able to save his fantasy day in Week 3 with a 33-yard touchdown catch and run early in the third quarter of Sunday’s clash with the L.A. Rams. He only had two targets, however, as the offense leaned on their wide receivers (and special teams unit) to complete a dramatic comeback.
Week 4 has Philadelphia heading south to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers, who rank sixth-lowest in both PPR and Half-PPR points allowed per game to opposing tight ends. Combine this with a general lack of play volume, even if the pass volume does pick up a bit, and there is enough here for me to fade Goedert this week.
Honorable Mention: Chigoziem Okonkwo
In Closing…
With Week 4 already upon us, we will soon be about 25% through the 2025 regular season in what has, so far, felt like the blink of an eye. Hopefully, you all are enjoying the action and setting yourselves up for a playoff push! Thank you for taking the time out of your day to read this. I truly appreciate it.
Many Successes!
Kyle Lesti (@klest.bsky.social)
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