PlayerProfiler is home to award-winning dynasty rankings and tools. Our Dynasty Deluxe package includes complete Dynasty Rankings, Rookie Rankings, Trade Analyzer, Draft Planner, Mock Drafts, and more. Check it out! Below, Jeffrey Waalkes looks at Quarterback Sleeper & Busts for 2025.
In fantasy football, we don’t draft names—we draft value. That’s the lesson that separates good managers from great ones. Players we once loved become off-limits if their cost climbs too high. Others we’ve ignored in the past suddenly become draft-day targets because the price is right. Every year, the market resets. And every year, our job is to identify the inefficiencies—those overlooked sleepers with breakout potential, and those overvalued busts riding a wave of unsustainable statistics or fading opportunities.
Sleepers aren’t just about hype—they’re about trajectory, role, and upside that hasn’t been priced in. Busts aren’t bad players—they’re often great NFL talents who just aren’t set up to pay off their fantasy cost. Knowing when to pivot, when to hold, and when to fold is the key to success.
Sleepers
Drake Maye: The Quiet Sleeper Hiding in Plain Sight
Drake Maye’s Advanced Metrics
If you’re hunting for this year’s true breakout candidate, it might be time to circle back to Foxborough. Drake Maye enters his sophomore campaign flying under the radar, despite flashing serious upside in a forgettable rookie season. The Patriots’ offense in 2024 was a mess—injuries along the line, aging weapons, and a first-year coaching staff trying to find its identity. Still, Maye proved he could produce in chaos.
In the nine games where he logged over 90 percent of the snaps, Maye averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game, which would’ve made him the QB11 over a full season. Most impressive? His mobility. He averaged 36.8 rushing yards per contest, which ranked fifth among quarterbacks in 2024. That kind of rushing floor brings weekly safety that few QBs can match.
And despite the surrounding dysfunction, Maye held up under pressure, completing 64.1 percent of his passes when pressured, the fifth-best mark in the league according to Player Profile advance metrics. His best comparable player, Josh Allen. Now, Maye enters 2025 with actual support: Stefon Diggs, emerging weapons like Demario Douglas and rookie Kyle Williams, a retooled offensive line, and Josh McDaniels calling plays.
Still being drafted as a low-end QB2, Maye has all the ingredients to vault into the QB1 conversation in 2025. Don’t sleep on the sophomore leap—this one could be seismic.
J.J. McCarthy: The Vikings’ Fantasy Football QB Dark Viking
JJ McCarthy’s Advanced Metrics
Transitioning from one potential second-year surge to a rookie with a golden opportunity, let’s turn to J.J. McCarthy, the projected Week 1 starter for the Minnesota Vikings.
After missing all of 2024 with a torn meniscus, McCarthy steps into one of the NFL’s most QB-friendly systems under Kevin O’Connell. The Vikings have ranked top-6 in passing yards and touchdowns for three straight seasons, and even Sam Darnold managed to finish as the QB7 in fantasy points per game last year in this offense.
The setup is loaded: Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and a fortified offensive line led by Ryan Kelly, Will Fries, and rookie Donovan Jackson. McCarthy’s college resume at Michigan only adds to the intrigue—he completed 72.3 percent of his passes and averaged 9.0 YPA in 2023, while also chipping in 742 rushing yards and eight touchdowns over his final two seasons.
PlayerProfiler currently pegs him as a QB15, but his tools and context suggest more. If you’re looking for a cheap QB2 with real breakout potential, McCarthy has the pedigree, the play-caller, and the weapons to deliver top-10 fantasy value. Think of him as this year’s version of Brock Purdy—with better legs and higher draft capital.
Michael Penix Jr.: A Cannon Arm with QB1 Potential
From McCarthy’s dual-threat upside, we shift to a pure pocket passer with a rocket arm—Michael Penix Jr. After sitting behind Kirk Cousins in 2024, Penix takes over as the Falcons’ clear-cut starter this season, and the upside is very real.
Though his three late-season starts last year flew under the radar, they offered a promising sample: 245.7 passing yards per game, 7.4 YPA, and a balanced 3:3 TD-to-INT line. Far from eye-popping—but considering he was thrust into a developmental stretch with limited prep, the performance was respectable.
More importantly, Atlanta’s setup is built for a breakout. The Falcons were No. 6 in pace of play last season, offering more offensive snaps and scoring chances. Drake London, Bijan Robinson, and Kyle Pitts provide a high-upside trio of weapons, and Penix’s college resume at Washington speaks for itself—he led the FBS in passing yards in back-to-back seasons.
He won’t bring much on the ground, but his arm strength and deep-ball accuracy are NFL-caliber. With a full offseason to build chemistry and master the playbook, Penix could make a C.J. Stroud-like leap in his first full year under center.
Currently going off draft boards as a low-end QB2, Penix may be one of the best value plays at the position if he maximizes his weapons and volume.
Final Word: Bet on Volume, Weapons, and Structure
In fantasy football, quarterback breakouts often boil down to three things: volume, weapons, and system. All three of these sleeper QBs—Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy, and Michael Penix Jr.—check those boxes heading into 2025.
Whether it’s Maye’s dual-threat floor, McCarthy’s elite situation, or Penix’s cannon arm in a fast-paced offense, each offers QB1 upside at a QB2 price. Stack your roster with safer names early—but don’t leave your draft without at least one of these breakout candidates stashed on your bench.
Now that we’ve broken down the top late-round sleepers you can target for upside, let’s shift focus to the names you may want to let someone else take too early. These are the quarterbacks flashing red flags—whether it’s due to inflated touchdown rates, coaching turnover, or offensive scheme changes. They might look safe on paper, but in fantasy, safe isn’t always smart.
While chasing sleepers can win you weeks, avoiding landmines is just as crucial in fantasy drafts. These quarterbacks are priced closer to their ceilings than their realities — and in each case, 2025 might be a year to pass.
Busts
Baker Mayfield: Fantasy Regression in Disguise
Baker Mayfield’s Advanced Metrics
Buccaneer’s QB Baker Mayfield was one of the feel-good stories of 2024. He played with confidence, delivered clutch performances, and helped Tampa Bay surprise critics with a strong season. His QB5 finish was no fluke — at least in the stats column. But when you zoom in on the numbers, Mayfield’s outburst looks more like an outlier than a trend.
In 2023, he posted a modest 4.9 percent touchdown rate, consistent with his career averages. But in 2024, that number spiked to 7.2 percent, powering a career-high 41 touchdowns. That kind of jump, without a dramatic shift in volume or system, is usually unsustainable. His completion percentage also rose by more than 7 percent year over year — again, without significant changes to scheme or personnel.
Tampa’s offense enters 2025 with more question marks than answers. Offensive coordinator Liam Coen is gone, replaced by a new playcaller still finding rhythm. Mike Evans continues to defy age but can’t do so forever, and Chris Godwin is still rehabbing from a significant injury. Rookie Emeka Egbuka adds excitement, but expecting him to keep Mayfield’s production afloat is a big ask.
At a QB7 ADP, fantasy managers are paying for the absolute best-case scenario — one that’s unlikely to repeat. There are simply more affordable quarterbacks with similar or higher ceilings available later in drafts.
Fantasy Takeaway
Mayfield’s 2024 was a perfect statistical storm. Regression is coming, and drafters banking on a repeat are likely to be disappointed. He’s a fade at cost.
Jared Goff: Losing His Edge
Jared Goff’s Advanced Metrics
While Mayfield’s bust case is built on regression, Jared Goff’s is built on disruption. Goff was one of the most reliable fantasy passers in 2024, finishing as the QB6 and operating with surgical precision in Ben Johnson’s offense. But Johnson is gone, and with him goes the offensive engine that powered Goff’s fantasy relevance.
Goff’s 6.9 percent touchdown rate in 2024 was a career best — and significantly above his 2022 (4.9 percent) and 2023 (5.0 percent) marks. He also continued his streak of zero rushing value, making his production entirely dependent on passing volume and efficiency. Without Johnson scheming up explosive plays and red-zone opportunities, it’s fair to expect those numbers to come back to earth.
New OC John Morton has NFL experience but is largely unproven as a top playcaller. He brings a solid resume from Denver’s passing game, but replicating Detroit’s offensive rhythm won’t be easy. Goff’s success has come from timing and trust — things that take time to rebuild under new leadership.
And with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs anchoring one of the league’s top run games, there’s a real chance Detroit leans even more on the ground if the passing efficiency slips.
Fantasy Takeaway
Currently going as QB11, Goff is being drafted as if nothing has changed. But everything has. Unless you’re punting QB and need a late-floor play, there are more dynamic and stable options to target in 2025.
Justin Herbert: Fantasy Fade in a Harbaugh World
Justin Herbert’s Advanced Metrics
In Los Angeles, Justin Herbert’s situation may be the trickiest to evaluate because, on paper, he’s coming off one of the most efficient seasons of his career. In 2024, he averaged a career-best 7.7 yards per attempt, posted a QBR over 100 for the first time, and threw just three interceptions. Clean football, no doubt.
But from a fantasy standpoint? It didn’t translate.
Herbert averaged fewer than 30 passing attempts per game — the lowest of his career. He had just two games with more than 300 passing yards. Worse, he tallied more games with one or zero touchdown passes (9) than games with two or more (8). Despite playing four more games than in 2023, he only threw three more touchdowns.
The context matters. New head coach Jim Harbaugh brings a disciplined, physical, run-first mindset. That may be great for the Chargers’ real-life win column, but it’s not great for your fantasy lineup. The Chargers also lost Mike Williams to retirement and failed to significantly reload behind second-year wideout Ladd McConkey. Herbert might be forced into more efficiency with less volume — a dangerous combo for fantasy relevance.
He’s currently being drafted around QB15, which feels “safe.” But safe doesn’t win fantasy leagues — especially not at quarterback in a year rich with upside picks like in similar or later ranges.
Fantasy Takeaway
Herbert’s raw skill isn’t in question, but the system and supporting cast are. A conservative scheme, fewer weapons, and a low passing volume outlook cap his ceiling in 2025. Don’t let the name value trick you into drafting floor without upside.
Final Word on QB Busts
In fantasy football, chasing points from last season rarely pays off, and these three quarterbacks are prime examples. These are quarterbacks who are prime examples where you can like a player but not like his average draft position. Mayfield is due for regression, Goff has lost his playcaller, and Herbert is stuck in a volume-limiting system. Don’t get caught drafting history. Aim for upside, chase new volume, and let others overpay for past glory.
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