Welcome to the Week 13 DFS Cash Game breakdown and picks article! If you’re new to this article or DFS cash games, please check out my ’10 Rules to Live By’ article.
Wow. The NFL season is flying by. We are now into the playoffs in FFPC high-stakes leagues. Other high-stakes formats like RTSports have one more week in the regular season, and home leagues have two weeks left. Luckily, though, we still have a good six weeks left in DFS (including the always wild Week 18).
First off, let’s make sure to enjoy these remaining weeks. At some point, everyone feels like the season is a bit of a grind. On the flip side, we all miss it when it’s gone. Take a minute and smell the roses. Remember why you do this. It’s fun! Now let’s get into the Week 13 DFS Cash game picks and make some money!
Week 13 DFS Cash Game Picks:
QUARTERBACK
Brock Purdy
For the first time this season, Jalen Hurts is on the slate and is not the first quarterback to grace the column. Instead, we have his opponent for Week 13 in Brock Purdy. On DraftKings, Purdy grades out as the top option. On FanDuel, he is second in my model. Surprisingly, the Eagles have been susceptible to the pass this year. On the flip side, the 49ers passing attack is No. 1 in Yards per Pass and No. 1 in Pass DVOA.
C.J. Stroud
I have been patiently waiting to get C.J. Stroud into the article. What a rookie season this guy has had. He is currently No. 3 in Quarterback Fantasy Points on the year behind only Hurts and Josh Allen. I don’t think anyone could have predicted this.
CJ Stroud Passing Productivity and Efficiency stats for 2023
I love the stats I am seeing here. In one of my favorite QB stats, Stroud rates No. 2 with 8.2 Adjusted Yards Per Attempt. You can also see his upside with the 8.4 YPA (No. 3). I don’t see any reason the Broncos, who rank No. 28 in pass Defense DVOA, slow them down.
Running Back
Zack Moss
We had Jonathan Taylor in this spot last week and he delivered. Unfortunately, he went down with an injury. Enter his teammate, Zack Moss. Moss has been a monster this year when he has gotten the full workload. While only playing part-time, he is still RB21 on the season.
He has had three games over 20 Fantasy points and one over 30. He is a stone-cold lock in cash and a borderline lock button in GPPs as well.
Christian McCaffery
The big challenge this week is how to fit in Christian McCaffrey as your top running back and Tyreek Hill at wide receiver. If you can make it work, do it. If you have to choose between the two, I probably lean Hill since there are quite a few solid value running backs. With that being said, McCaffrey is a great play. The Eagles’ run defense has been solid this year, but McCaffrey gets it done in so many ways.
Christian McCaffery 2023 Productivity Stats
Consider the following stats. He leads running backs in red zone touches with 56 (eight goal line carries). He leads running backs with 939 rushing yards and receiving yards with 389. Lastly, he has 16 touchdowns (No. 1).
Jaylen Warren
This last slot is really close. I gave Jaylen Warren the nod because of his price savings on DraftKings. On FanDuel, the pricing is a bit closer, but there are plenty of reasons to like Warren. Yes, I am concerned that he isn’t the clear bell cow. Yes, I like to avoid plays like that in cash games. He has been very solid though and has a great matchup this week against the Cardinals No. 30 rated run defense in DVOA.
The other options for both sites I like are Breece Hall and Javonte Williams. Some concern with Hall aggravating his hamstring injury keeps him from overtaking Warren here. On FanDuel, I’d throw in Rachaad White and Rhamondre Stevenson for DraftKings. I wouldn’t fault anyone for taking any of these guys, and if you don’t go with CMC, I would use one of these guys instead.
WIDE RECEIVER
Tyreek Hill
Tyreek Hill is projected a whopping four points ahead of the next wide receiver. His salary is very high, but that is an insane projection. For context, the difference between the No. 2 and No. 3 WR is .10 a point. Where Hill has been particularity dangerous this year is yards after the catch. He currently has 524 YAC (No. 1). This explains why he is No. 9 in Air Yards at 1,197 but leads all wide receivers with 1,324 Receiving Yards (No. 1). Combine that with his elite opportunity of 33.7-percent (No. 1) Target Share and he has literally the perfect formula for a cash game wide receiver.
A.J. Brown
If you can’t pay all the way up to Hill, A.J. Brown is a great consolation prize. Playing Brown also gives you some exposure to Hurts and pairs well with Purdy as your quarterback. It’s true he put up a dud two weeks ago.
Additionally, even his game last week wasn’t an all-star performance, he did get in the end zone and had 9 targets. The game has a respectable 48 O/U and has the potential to turn into an all-out shootout. Brown is a particularly good value on FanDuel where he is $400 cheaper than he is on DraftKings.
Josh Downs
I played Josh Downs last week and I am going right back there this week. He didn’t sink my battleship last week, but he also didn’t smash. Coming back from injury with another week under his belt should help his chances. If you watched the game, you also saw he had a few goal-line targets that were very close to becoming touchdowns. At his price, I am happy to give the rookie another shot.
TIGHT END Position
Tight end is interesting this week. No surprise our dynasty darling Trey McBride is grading out as the top play. However, when I run my optimal lineups, it suggests you want to pay down. I would generally agree with this thought particularly if you are trying to fit in McCaffery and Hill together. With Dalton Schultz out this week, and the Saints WR corps decimated by injuries, the best options for that are Brevin Jordan at the stone-cold minimum or Juwan Johnson.
I lean Jordan for the salary savings, but it’s really close. Additionally, you could play both if you really need the savings (I recommend DraftKings only for using TE in the flex). The other option is David Njoku. In theory, Joe Flacco might be an upgrade at quarterback. He can’t really push the ball down the field though at his age, which gives a boost to the shorter passing game and Njoku. I’d prefer to pay down. If you can’t, then try to get up to McBride. If you build the rest of your lineup and are on your last piece and land in that middle salary range, then Njoku is a fine option.
DEFENSE
Atlanta Falcons
The trend continues with FanDuel pricing up the defenses in the best matchups. I curse them! My favorite move in DFS is paying down for defense while everyone else kills themselves playing up for above-average defenses in mediocre matchups. I digress. The best defense I have ranked on both sites is the Falcons. The difference in salary though gives the Falcons a rating of 90 on DraftKings while only scoring a 48 on FanDuel. Crazy! To be clear, the reason the rating is so low on FanDuel is because of them pricing up defenses. On FanDuel, you can get a cheaper defense if you want to go with the Rams at $3700. On DraftKings, if you need to save a small amount, you could go with the Colts at $3200.
Conclusion
Last week going into the afternoon games, it was clear on FanDuel I was going to lose. My two lower-owned plays busted, and I knew I was going to have a lot of overlap with Hurts, Brown, and Isiah Pacheco in my lineup for the afternoon. I decided to swap to Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, James Conner, and I had to take the minimum defense to make it work. It didn’t end up working out because Pacheco went to smashville, and Hurts and Brown ended up coming through late in the game. However, for a short time, I made above the pay line. I slightly overshot as the ownership was low enough on Allen and Diggs that I didn’t need to get off Pacheco, but I would rather be aggressive there than be drawing dead.
The moral of the story here is to make sure to check out late swaps in your cash games. It is talked about in tournaments but less so in cash games. Salvaging a loss can make a massive difference in your yearly results.
Don’t forget to check out some of our other DFS content like Kelly’s video over on YouTube.
Good luck this week!
