Piece of the Allen
With another sizable 13-game slate on deck, Josh Allen is again the spend-up at quarterback. Allen has proven to be a matchup-proof stud but won’t have to prove much while facing the Jet’s bottom ranked defense. The Jets have notably been bad against the rush this season but have been arguably just as bad against the pass.
The Jets rank No. 2 in Pass Yards allowed and No. 2 in explosive pass plays of 20+ yards (Allen ranks No. 5 in Deep Attempts). The Bills own a hefty 28.25 Vegas implied team total (No. 2 highest behind the Colts) in a game ranked No. 5 in Pace of Play. Expect the Bills to keep their foot on the gas as they need a win here to clinch the AFC East title.
The Colts are on the outside looking in for a postseason run, so they will be giving it their all to beat the Jaguars. While Jonathan Taylor (who is a fantastic play) will understandably garner ownership, there’s also value in spending down with Carson Wentz ($5800). While Wentz is a tournament sprinkle play given the fact he hasn’t topped 20 DKPt since Week 12, he does have upside with clear stacking options like Taylor or Michael Pittman. The Colts have a slate-high 29.75 implied Vegas total.
The final week of the regular season is always a wild week. The final main slate is “preseason-esque” in that the edge is being privy to news around teams. Having said that, one complete dart worth considering is the Bengals’ Brandon Allen. He’s a little priced up from what a normal backup quarterback should be but he’s been good in spot starts in the past. He’s no Joe Burrow (who is expected to be active in a reserve role), but at sub-1-percent ownership, it’s worth a shot taking a chance on an offense that has earned the No. 2 most fantasy points by the position over the past month.
Jonathan Taylor is a slam dunk. In a must-win game for the Colts, Taylor should get plenty of run. He’s currently 266 Rushing Yards away from the 2,000 yard mark. That’s a lofty goal but not out of the range of outcomes for the standout rusher. At DK Sportsbook, the Colts are 15 point road favorites. The Jaguars rank last in the league in rushing percentage allowed when trailing by 7 or more points (44-percent rate h/t RotoGrinders). Also note that the Jaguars rank No. 5 in Rushing Touchdown Percentage (49-percent rate). Get your popcorn ready for this one.
Jonathan Taylor is lapping the field 👀 pic.twitter.com/5xAnnC6qCp
— PFF (@PFF) January 4, 2022
Running Back Thoughts
Devin Singletary was a hit last week and it’s worth going back to the well with him in Week 18. Singletary posted his first RB1 performance of the season (26 DKPt good for RB2 on the slate) in last week’s romp of the Falcons. After being relegated to a committee backfield, Singletary has commanded the Buffalo backfield in recent weeks while accounting for 4 Rushing Touchdowns over his past 3 outings. The Jets have allowed a league-worst 33.9 DKPt to opposing running backs and 22 Rushing Touchdowns allowed (also league worst).
After missing the last two games with a heel injury, James Conner looks like he’ll be returning as the only healthy back for the Cardinals. Chase Edmonds has already been ruled out (ribs/toe) which should open up a full workload for Conner, assuming he goes. His opponent, the Seahawks, have been fine against the rush ranked No. 24 in Rush Yards allowed. They have however allowed the No. 5 most Rushing Touchdowns to the position. Conner has flashed tournament-winning upside this season including 33.5 and 40.3 DKPt performances.
Speaking of incentives, Cooper Kupp should have some extra motivation to finish his historic season strong. In a must-win game against division rival 49ers, Kupp also needs 12 Receptions (a feat he’s achieved once already this season) to break the single-season receiving record. He’s also 171 Receiving Yards away from a 2,000 yard receiving season. Fire up fantasy’s WR1 and find value elsewhere.
Cooper Kupp record update:
-Needs 12 receptions
-Needs 136 receiving yards
Rams need to beat the Niners next week to clinch the division. Expect Kupp to get FED
— Anthony Amico (@amicsta) January 3, 2022
Wide Receiver Thoughts
With Antonio Brown retiring mid-game and Chris Godwin on IR, Mike Evans should see massive work as the only receiver left for Tom Brady. The only issue with stacking the Bucs is they have already clinched the NFC South, so it’s unclear whether the starters get a full game or not. Monitor the situation. If we get word that they are a full-go, Evans and Brady stacks look to be in play and at low ownership (3.5 and 3.9 projected ownership per RotoGrinders). Brady needs 488 Passing Yards to break the single-season record and Evans needs 54 Receiving Yards to continue his streak of eight consecutive seasons with 1,000 plus Receiving Yards.
As noted above, The Bills will go all-out to beat the Jets. Expect Stefon Diggs to be a part of the reason why the Bills are 16.5 point favorites (FanDuel Sportsbook). Diggs has had some quiet games this season but is always in play especially in smash spots such as this one. The last time these two teams squared off, Diggs reached his season high watermark (33.2 DKPt).
Gronk Smash and Cash
Add Rob Gronkowksi to your Brady/Evans stacks. If Brady is somehow going to hit the single-season passing record, it’s going to have to go to either him or Evans, right? In Week 17, Gronkowski saw a 20-percent Target Share while handling a massive 94.5-percent Snap Share. Per ETR, Gronkowski needs 7 Receptions and 85 Receiving Yards to cash in another $1,000,000.
Tight End Thoughts
The clear-cut tight end option for salary and expected value is Zach Ertz. His median projection of 14.1 is within 2 points of Mark Andrews 16.6 projection yet he is priced $2000 below Andrews. Ertz has seen 11, 13 and 9 Targets over his past few games acting as a reliable outlet for Kyler Murray (with DeAndre Hopkins done for the year). The Cardinals/Seahawks ranks No. 3 in Pace of Play and will be played in the dome.