In Week 9 we locked in Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett, who each finished No. 1 at their respective positions with big performances against the Buccaneers. We also delivered Matthew Stafford, Le’Veon Bell, Kenny Golladay, Mike Evans and Hunter Henry. All five finished among the top-10 at their position. This week, we present 13 more lock-button players who are primed for success. These players should be in your lineups based on usage, opportunity, matchups, advanced stats and metrics. Let’s assume PPR scoring with four points per passing touchdown.
Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals
Matchup: Buccaneers
Kyler Murray had his best game as a pro in Week 9. It was most impressive considering he did it against the stingy 49ers defense. Murray has now finished as a top-10 fantasy quarterback in three of the last five weeks. That should continue with a favorable matchup in Week 10. The Bucs have allowed the sixth most passing yards and the third most passing touchdowns. Only the Cardinals have allowed more fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. It’s no surprise, then, that this game has the highest over/under of the week at 52 points.
Check out Kyler Murray on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:
Murray will take advantage of the awful Bucs secondary both through the air and with scrambles. He is fifth in pass attempts and third among quarterbacks in rush attempts. Only Lamar Jackson has more rushing yards. Murray is modestly priced at $7,700 (QB12) on FanDuel and $6,500 (QB7) on DraftKings. Lock him in as a cheaper option to Jackson.
Michael Thomas, WR, Saints
Matchup: Falcons
Drew Brees returned prior to the Saints’ bye week and looked as good as ever. Per usual, Michael Thomas was his go-to receiver, hauling in all 11 targets for 112 yards and a touchdown. Even when Brees was sidelined for five weeks, Thomas didn’t skip a beat. He finished as a top-15 wide receiver in four of the five games with Teddy Bridgewater, including two top-five performances. In fact, Thomas hasn’t scored fewer than 16 fantasy points in any contest. He leads all wideouts in Target Share, receptions and receiving yards. Thomas is top-five in Completed Air Yards, yards after the catch and red zone receptions. It’s no surprise that he is first in fantasy points per game among wide receivers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mbubyojmtxc
Thomas draws an incredible matchup in Week 10 against one of the league’s most vulnerable secondaries. The Falcons have allowed 187.4 receiving yards per game and 12 touchdown receptions by wide receivers. They have surrendered the fourth most fantasy points per game to the position. Atlanta will get top cornerback Desmond Trufant back from injury, but he is no threat to Thomas. Trufant ranks 75th in PlayerProfiler’s cornerback rankings. Thomas is the highest priced wide receiver on both DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 10, but he is well worth the price of admission considering his high floor and incredibly high ceiling.
Chris Godwin, WR, Buccaneers
Matchup: Cardinals
Mike Evans has been dominant since posting a goose egg against the Saints in Week 5. Evans has had double-digit receptions and over 180 yards in each of the last two games and has averaged 15 targets over the last three. This is the week to pivot back to Chris Godwin in DFS, though, as Evans will draw the shadow coverage of cornerback Patrick Peterson. While Peterson hasn’t played up to the level we are used to, he is still a proven No. 1 cornerback that may influence Jameis Winston to look elsewhere.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bICwLcG2o24&feature=emb_title
On the other hand, Godwin will see a combination of Tramaine Brock and Byron Murphy, who have allowed a combined 79 receptions for 871 yards and seven touchdowns in eight games. Even with Evans’ recent dominance, Godwin is still sixth in receptions and top-five in receiving yards and fantasy points per game. Considering the Cardinals pace of play, and that this game has the highest over/under of the week, Godwin’s ceiling is massive.
Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants
Matchup: Jets
Saquon Barkley has flown under the radar a bit in the first half of the season. He has been overshadowed by the spectacular seasons of Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook. It doesn’t help that he missed multiple games with an ankle injury and plays on a 2-7 Giants team. Barkley is priced $1,700 cheaper than McCaffrey on DraftKings and $1,900 less on FanDuel despite a mouth-watering matchup with the Jets in Week 10.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xYkhA3i2O_4
Barkley remains the focal point of the offense and enjoys an 88.4-percent (No. 3 among qualified running backs) Opportunity Share. He hasn’t had a 100-yard rushing game since Week 2, but expect the Giants to lean heavily on the ground game in this rare contest in which they are favored. Barkley has seen 23 targets in the three games since his return from injury. The Jets have allowed more than 50 receiving yards per game to running backs and 25.6 fantasy points per contest to the position. Lock Barkley into Week 10 lineups as a high-volume monster against one of the league’s worst defenses.
Ronald Jones, RB, Buccaneers
Matchup: Cardinals
Ronald Jones appears to have finally taken over the Tampa Bay backfield. He played on a season-high 55.7-percent of the snaps and out-touched Peyton Barber 20 to four in Week 10. Head coach Bruce Arians said after the game that Jones has “earned the right to start.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhALxBiUHk8
Jones has averaged 14.8 fantasy points in his three games with at least 15 touches. He has been efficient and elusive, averaging 5.0 (No. 25) yards per touch with a 26.0-percent (No. 16) Juke Rate and 26 (No. 24) evaded tackles. Jones is top-15 with 1.64 Yards Created per carry. The Cardinals have allowed the seventh most rushing yards through eight weeks. As we noted with Kyler Murray, this game has the highest over/under of the week at 52 points, providing big upside for Jones. At just $6,300 (RB23) on FanDuel and $4,300 (RB41) on DraftKings, Jones is an obvious lock-button play.
Austin Hooper, TE, Falcons
Matchup: Saints
Austin Hooper continues to be underpriced on both DFS platforms considering his weekly high floor and high ceiling. After all, he remains the TE1 in fantasy points per game and has finished outside the top-five tight ends just three times and outside the top-eight once. While the Saints have been solid against the position, they have yet to face a tight end that ranks in the top-10 in fantasy points per game. This game has the second highest over/under and the Falcons are 13 point underdogs. Hooper has racked up a bunch of fantasy points with Atlanta playing in catch-up mode and Week 10 should be no different.
Other Locks:
Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens at Bengals: Jackson torched the Bengals both through the air and on the ground in Week 6. There is no reason to think he won’t do it again.
Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints vs Falcons: If Kamara gets anywhere near his normal workload, he is a lock for a big game against this putrid Falcons defense.
Marlon Mack, RB, Colts vs Dolphins: With Jacoby Brissett banged up and game script likely to be in his favor, Mack will see a heavy workload against the league’s worst defense.
Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams at Steelers: Kupp is averaging 10.9 targets per game and will look to take advantage of a Steelers defense that has allowed a league-high seven touchdowns to slot receivers.
Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers vs Cardinals: If it’s not going to be Godwin, it’s going to be Evans.
Christian Kirk, WR, Cardinals at Buccaneers: The Bucs have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers and no quarterback throws to the slot more than Kyler Murray.
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs at Titans: Kelce leads all tight ends in targets, receiving yards and Target Distance. He also gets Patrick Mahomes back.
