Welcome to the latest and greatest arena where fantasy football takes thrive or die. A place where fantasy football propositions can gain validity or be thrown by the wayside. This is the first installment of the Fantasy Football Shark Tank.
Take No. 1 – Tony Pollard’s Dynasty Value > Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s Dynasty Value
Since Clyde Edwards-Helaire was drafted (2020), his fantasy value has fallen. In that same span, Pollard’s value has begun to rise. We are in the midst of their crossover point in terms of their fantasy football value.
Screaming that Edwards-Helaire has been ineffective since the Kansas City Chiefs used round one draft capital would not be a wild claim. He is tethered to one of the prolific offenses on planet Earth and hasn’t produced at a RB 1 level. This sentiment has been echoed from PlayerProfiler’s own Cody Carpentier, but it is worth repeating. CEH has only eclipsed 20 fantasy points twice out of his 23 career games played. Here are his career average efficiency metrics (spoiler alert…they are meh to miserable):
When healthy, Edwards-Helaire has lost touches to Darrel Williams, Jerick McKinnon, Derrick Gore and past prime Le’Veon Bell. At least when Tony Pollard concedes touches, it is to a former top four overall draft pick.
Tony Pollard is a poster child for efficiency from the running back position. The Memphis product finished the ‘21 campaign with a 34.9-percent (No. 5 among qualified running backs) Juke Rate, 5.1 (No. 2) True Yards per Carry, 6.2 (No. 4) Yards Per Touch, and an 8.5-percent (No. 3) Breakaway Run Rate.
A Penny for our thoughts? Rashaad was really, really, really good running the ball for the #Seahawks in 2021💨 pic.twitter.com/Ahw0FdYU5P
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) February 7, 2022
Pollard is a legit receiving weapon out of the backfield because of his 84.8 percent (No. 6) Catch Rate and 2.50 (No. 2) Yards Per Route Run. The knock against him is, and has always been, his usage. But from 2020 to 2021, he saw an increase in Snap Share (+2.2-percent), Opportunity Share (+8.4-percent), Carries (+29), Targets (+6), and Red Zone Touches (+5). Ezekiel Elliott will be another year older and Pollard will still be 25. Here is the cherry on top: Dallas can move on from Elliott after next season. It is Pollard’s time, and that is why his value in dynasty is higher than Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s value.
To The Fantasy Football Shark Tank
Fantasy value can be elevated by what players have done, but fantasy value can only be capitalized on by predicting what a play will do. It would appear one running back is in a much better situation than the other. One player is heading into the offseason as the only back of consequence on his roster. The other player is sharing a backfield with someone who has racked up more than 7,300 rushing yards in his career. Oh and that same player is set to make $10 million in 2022.
It is easy to love Tony Pollard‘s ability, not his current situation. Inversely, it is easy to love Clyde Edwards-Helaire‘s situation, but not his ability.
Investing some confidence into this fantasy football take makes a ton of sense. But taking a majority share of it comes with far too much risk. 49% CONFIDENCE.
FFBMarketWatch | CEH? | #fantasyfootball | #dynasty | #Chiefs | #fyp | #foryou | #foryoupage
Investing some confidence into this fantasy football take makes a ton of sense. But taking a majority share of it comes with far too much risk.
Take No. 2 – D.J. Moore = Dynasty Buy
For three straight seasons, D.J. Moore has seen 115 or more targets. He has racked up more than 65 catches, surpassed 1,100 receiving yards, and 1,500 Air Yards. All this while he was catching passes from quarterbacks like Kyle Allen, Will Grier, Teddy Bridgewater, P.J. Walker, Sam Darnold, and a way past his prime Cam Newton. Whenever Teddy Bridgewater is the pinnacle of QB talent by eons, it is fair to say that the QB room in Carolina has been weak to quite weak.
In 2021, Moore had 901 (No. 4) Unrealized Air Yards, a 6.6 (No. 98) Target Accuracy, 71.6-percent (No. 76) Catchable Target Rate, and a 4.80 (No. 79) Target Quality Rating. It is tough to fully articulate how incredibly upsetting this is. Moore is a super talented wide receiver with 4.42 speed and a 94th-percentile Burst Score. His talent deserves a signal caller that can elevate his statistics and not hurt them.
Bad Luck Moore
Moore has never had more than four receiving touchdowns in a season. To put that in perspective, he’s the only WR in the NFL to record 900 or more receiving yards and score less than five touchdowns. That makes him a one in 27 outlier. He is also the only WR that has a Dominator Rating of 30.0-percent and 1,500 Air Yards with less than 10 total touchdowns. Even with a marginal improvement at quarterback, positive regression is almost a certainty.
Speaking of Carolina making a QB improvement, they’ll have a fantastic chance to do so this offseason. They have the No. 6 overall pick in the NFL Draft. A prime position to get one of the top QBs in the class. This offseason may also see the biggest and most chaotic quarterback carousel in recent history. Opportunity can arise from chaos. Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Kirk Cousins, and Matt Ryan could all be on the move. If Carolina can acquire one of these veterans or draft Malik Willis, Matt Corral or Kenny Pickett, Moore will finally get the QB upgrade he deserves. That is why he is a MUST BUY in dynasty leagues.
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In 4 NFL seasons, D.J. Moore has yet to finish as a WR 1 in fantasy. Even with the good surface statistics, he finished No. 28 and No. 25 on a points-per-game basis in fantasy football. As good a player Moore is, having bad QB play has clearly held him back.
There is no guarantee that the Panthers will upgrade at quarterback. Sam Darnold is set to make $18 million in 2022 and it is completely possible that Carolina heads into camp with the former top draft pick as their projected quarterback.
FFBMarketWatch | DJ Moore? #fantasyfootball | #dynasty | #fyp | #foryou
Having said all that, Moore is clearly a buy in fantasy football. Even with poor quarterback play, he has performed as a top 30 wideout in three of his four professional seasons. If Carolina improves their QB room, the sky’s the limit for Moore. Investing heavily in this take.
Despite Tony Pollard‘s fantastic efficiency metrics and Clyde Edwards-Helaire‘s lackluster production, the two backs’ fantasy values have yet to fully flip. If Dallas and Kansas City decided to swap players, then it would be safe to say wheels up for Mr. Pollard. But that isn’t the case so heading into the 2022 season it is CEH by a nose hair.
D.J. Moore is a stud. He is a wildly talented wide receiver that is as close to QB proof as there is. Just like Pollard, Moore needs his situation to improve to fully reach his potential. But unlike Pollard, he is a stable dynasty asset regardless of his team making any improvements.
Share this with LIT-TURE-ALLY everyone you know and maybe there will be a second installment of the Fantasy Football Shark Tank.
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