CJ Stroud Lives Up to the Hype | NFL DFS Week 11

by Kelly Singh · Prop Plays
CJ Stroud Texans

It’s time for my DFS Week 11 picks! Thanks for following along each week. Last week was…okay. We went six of 12 on our overall core picks. Not as good as last week, but to be fair a couple of those picks suffered injuries during the game. All of the QB picks met or exceeded their projections, with Geno Smith living up to all of my expectations. And if you paired him with DK Metcalf, you made out okay!

Did you place any of my prop bet suggestions? They ALL hit. Goff hit the over in passing yards, Gibbs had a rushing touchdown and over 50 scrimmage yards, Mixon hit the over on scrimmage yards and had a rushing touchdown, and Metcalf hit the over on receptions! Let’s look at the data again this week, build some cores, and create a few random props.

DFS Week 10 Picks

QB Picks

CJ Stroud ($7.0K DraftKings / $8.0K FanDuel)

There’s a lot of conversation around rookie QB sensation CJ Stroud. That’s because he’s having a killer season! While the salary is a bit high for my liking, I’d venture to manage it with the projection of 19 FPPG this week against the Cardinals. Last week, he passed for 356 yards and had two touchdowns (1 pass, 1 rush). It was his third game with 350 or more passing yards this season, tied for most in the NFL. If you’re in a betting mood…the current over is 254.5 passing yards at home, against a flimsy Arizona defense. I’d smash that!

Brock Purdy ($5.8K DraftKings / $7.5K FanDuel)

With a projection of 17 FPPG and a super manageable salary, particularly on DraftKings, I like how Brock Purdy is shaping up this week. Despite having a few shaky outings, he still leads NFL with an overall 109.9 Passer Rating.

Last week, Purdy became the second QB ever (outside HOFer Kurt Warner) to have three games with three or more touchdown passes, all with a 140-plus rating in his first two career seasons. The 49ers take on Tampa Bay who rank defensively in the bottom quarter of the league.

Jared Goff ($6.6K DraftKings / $7.9K FanDuel)

Jared Goff and the Lions take on the Chicago Bears in their Week 11 matchup. The Bears have a terrible defense, ranking last in the league. Goff has had eight touchdown passes and zero interceptions for a 118.6 Passer Rating in his past four games against Chicago. He’s projected for 18 FPPG this week. This would be his fifth game in a row with 250 or more passing yards. If you’re looking for another prop bet…I’d bet on Goff again for the over this week.

RB Picks

Aaron Jones ($6.2K DraftKings / $7.0K FanDuel)

Aaron Jones is on a roll. This could be his third game in a row with 50 or more scrimmage yards (prop bet?). He’s up against a Chargers defense that ranks nearly last in the league. Green Bay could really use a big win. They’re 3-6 coming off of a narrow loss to the Steelers last week. Look for them to utilize Jones in a big way in Week 11 for some redemption.

Devin Singletary ($5.3K DraftKings / $6.5K FanDuel)

With such a reasonable salary and a projection of 11 FPPG this week, it’s tough to overlook playing Devin Singletary. Last week, he rushed for a career-high 150 yards…in a single game! That’s wild. As much as I hate to say it (because I love my Cardinals), he’s bound to have another killer game again this week. Do I think he’ll have another 150 yard game? No, but we need to be rostering Singletary for this matchup and all the upside.

Royce Freeman ($4.5K DraftKings / $5.3K FanDuel)

It’s been announced that Kyren Williams will return in Week 12, leaving Royce Freeman in for Week 11. He’s been leading the team in rush yards – sometimes effectively, sometimes not – but he is getting the carries. Freeman is projected for a modest 6 FPPG this week, but for this salary, you can save some cap space rostering him. Freeman and the Rams are facing a mediocre Seahawks defense, so as long as Carson Wentz doesn’t get sacked too much…Freeman’s in business!

WR Picks

Brandon Aiyuk ($7.2K DraftKings / $7.8K FanDuel)

Brandon Aiyuk is aiming for his seventh game in a row with 50 or more receiving yards. That’s a pretty amazing streak! If you’re weighing this for a prop bet, Underdog has him at the time of publishing with the over at 58.5 receiving yards. Aiyuk’s salary is very manageable this week and he’s projected for 14.9 FPPG on DraftKings and 12.6 on FanDuel.

Davante Adams ($7.9K DraftKings / $7.6K FanDuel)

This is one of those rare times that we see a DraftKings salary higher than the corresponding FanDuel salary. We all know that FanDuel gives an additional $10K in their salary caps, which typically reflects in higher salaries per player. Not this week, though. Davante Adams is a Week 11 anomaly.

With a projection of 14.8 and 11.8 FPPG respectively, I’m intrigued and will find a way to fit Adams into some of my lineups this week. Last week, he had six catches for 86 yards and has had six or more catches and 55 or more receiving yards in four of five road games this season.

DJ Moore ($5.6K DraftKings / $6.8K FanDuel)

Despite the Bears not being a very good team this year, DJ Moore still has to eat! He’s projected for 14 FPPG on DraftKings and 11.6 on FanDuel, plus he comes with a very manageable salary. Overall, the Lions have a pretty good defense; however, they’re near the bottom of the pack when it comes to allowing points to wide receivers. Moore has had 50 or more receiving yards in six of his last seven games. Look for that trend to continue.

TE Picks

Trey McBride ($4.4K DraftKings / $5.9K FanDuel)

With the return of Kyler Murray and the chemistry we saw last week with Trey McBride, we should all be paying attention. McBride has had eight or more catches and 95 or more receiving yards in two of his last three games. That includes last week, when he earned eight catches and 131 receiving yards with Murray under center in a win against Atlanta. Despite being a tougher matchup than Atlanta, Houston ranks poorly when it comes to giving up points to tight ends.

Chigoziem Okonkwo ($3.2K DraftKings / $4.8K FanDuel)

Titans tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo has been very consistent this season in meeting his modest fantasy points projections. If you’re looking for a salary break, he could very well be what you’re looking for. Jacksonville has a pretty good defense, but they’re not so great when it comes to stopping tight ends. If you’re like me and enjoy playing lineups with two tight ends, Okonkwo would be a reliable flex pick for Week 11.

DEF/DST

Pittsburgh Steelers ($3.5K DraftKings / $4.0K FanDuel)

My favorite defense is the Pittsburgh Steelers this week. With a manageable salary, a favorable matchup with the Browns losing starting QB Deshaun Watson, and a projected points total of 8.5, they’re checking all the boxes for me. If you’ve got some extra cap space, consider the Detroit Lions ($3.8K/$4.4K). Although, they’re projected for about the same at 8.9 FPPG – the highest defensive projection for Week 11.