Welcome to NFL Best Bets Week 11. Here, we provide our best game line bets for the Sunday-Monday NFL slate each week on sportsbooks.
Each week’s article features picks on either the moneyline, spread, game total, or team total. For each bet, we will provide a wager size recommendation (note: 1 unit = 1% of your gambling bankroll). It’s important to keep the exposure disciplined and stick to the recommendations. It is always worth line-shopping at the time you place your bet so that you can get the best value available online.
In Week 10, we swept out plays on Sunday. In the afternoon, the Buccaneers had no problem taking care of Will Levis and the Titans. They cashed on a moneyline that we got at -115 but closed at -150. The great closing value paid off. On Sunday Night Football, the Raiders made it two straight wins to begin the Antonio Pierce Era. However, they still couldn’t clear their Vegas team total line of 17.5. This made it a sweaty cash on their team total “under.”
We are now 9-8 on the season and have won three straight article bets. Let’s keep the good mojo going into Week 11 for our best bet of the Sunday slate, worth a confident 2 units.
2 Units: Rams Moneyline (+100, FanDuel)
This season, our first pick in this series was in this matchup in Week 1. The Seahawks were favored by nearly a full possession (5.5) at home. We backed the home team to get the job done against what we thought was an inexperienced, mismatched defense. We were wrong and instead of doubling down in the rematch, we’re taking the hint. The Rams have gone through a lot this season. However, the books are still respecting them in this spot for good reason.
Seattle is 6-3 and in serious contention for the NFC West alongside the 49ers who have the same record. Meanwhile, the Rams are looking to retool soon with their 3-6 record and quarterback Matthew Stafford hasn’t been fully healthy. Yet, this game is near pick ‘em. Vegas believes in Stafford and Sean McVay, rightfully so.
Even though Seattle’s defense has been phenomenal all season long, their offense has started to show some deficiencies. They now rank No. 17 in pass block win rate, a bad sign against a Rams defense that is only No. 17 in pass rush win rate but does still possess the best single pass-rushing threat in NFL history, Aaron Donald.
Geno Smith
Seattle quarterback Geno Smith ranks No. 21 in adjusted EPA per play and No. 24 in accuracy rating, and his splits by coverage are alarming. He ranks No. 33 in passer rating and No. 22 in accuracy rating against zone, which is primarily what the Rams run. McVay’s group ranks No. 6 in zone coverage rate this season. To add to the bad news for Seattle, wide receiver Tyler Lockett did not practice on Wednesday and guard Damien Lewis remains questionable—not ideal for the team with the one-week rest disadvantage.
To top it all off, this game fits a staggering against-the-spread system in the NFL. Since 2020, home underdogs coming off a loss in their previous game are 34-7-3 against the spread when they face a team with a winning record coming off a win in their previous week. This system is also on a 15-1-0 run and is active on Rams +1 at the moment. Let’s not pay 10 cents of juice to buy the point and instead ask McVay to sweep the season series against Pete Carroll. This is a matchup he has owned in the past as well. McVay is 10-4 against the spread in his career against Carroll and has covered in six straight. The streak continues in Week 11.
