Best Pick ‘Em Player Props: Week 11

by Ahaan Rungta · Matchups Start/Sit

Welcome back to the Best Pick ‘Em Player Props: Week 11! We needed a bounceback week on the prop market and we got it. Welcome back to my written series on the NFL’s best pick ‘em player props of the week. As usual, I will review selections from the previous week, then give out my favorite player prop pick ‘ems for the upcoming weekend on the DFS pages of Underdog Fantasy and Sleeper.

In each article, I’ll explain why I see value in the selected props. I will also accompany the article with at least one sample slip. Players who want to tail the picks can head over to the designated platform and join either Underdog or Sleeper using promo code UNDERWORLD for a full deposit match up to $100. Players who want to get a head-start building their pick ‘em cards earlier in the week can also visit PlayerProfilers’ DFS Dominator tool and navigate over a dozen prop leans by me and some other staff. Fantasy gamers can see these prop leans a day or two before I reveal my final picks in this article. These picks will be located in the Underdog Pick Generator on the website.

Week 10 Review

It was a showcase for the PlayerProfiler squad on player prop pick ‘ems. Several leans on the Underdog Pick Generator hit! Last week’s final card for yours truly went near-perfect. Last week’s final wagers can be viewed in this article.

Week 9 Sleeper Play: Patrick Mahomes OVER 26.5 Completions | Travis Kelce OVER 0.5 Receiving Touchdowns | Christian Kirk OVER 62.5 Receiving Yards

We approached our Sleeper play via correlation and game-stacking in a Jaguars vs. Chiefs contest that was projected by Vegas to be the highest-scoring game of Week 10. While the offenses did not live up to that hype, we picked out the alphas and nearly smashed the three-legger. Christian Kirk was the Jacksonville No. 1 again. He put up a season-high nine receptions on 12 targets for 105 yards, including two touchdowns. On the other side, Travis Kelce led the Chiefs in receiving. Kelce had six receptions on seven targets for 81 yards and the receiving touchdown we needed. However, despite throwing for 331 yards on 35 pass attempts, Mahomes only needed 26 completions to get there. This ruined a 5x profit parlay cash for us by just one pass. Sheesh.

Week 9 Underdog play: Amon-Ra St. Brown OVER 6.5 receptions | Dalton Schultz OVER 32.5 receiving yards

It was all about overs for pass-catchers this week and trusting chemistry with their quarterbacks. Amon-Ra St. Brown‘s reception prop was a loser for us in Week 9, but we stayed on course with realizing that there is simply nobody in Detroit challenging him as the alpha. He nearly cashed this reception line in the second quarter and finished the shootout with 10 receptions on 11 targets for a new season-high 119 receiving yards. St. Brown is a week-to-week fantasy football WR1 as rookie first-round draft pick Jameson Williams continues to be sidelined.

Meanwhile, the connection between Dak Prescott and Dalton Schultz continued to remain strong, and we took advantage with a soft line on Underdog. In a closely-contested game against the Packers, Schultz put up six receptions on eight targets for 54 yards and his first touchdown of the season. He now has three straight games with at least 49 receiving yards, all with Dak Prescott under center.

  • Week 10 Legs: 5-1; overall +0.50u
  • YTD: 22-20-1; -2.00u

Week 11 Picks

If you are new to player prop pick ‘ems, we recommend learning about them through our beginner’s guide article. Here, we preview some profitable strategies and when to use insurance. Again, we are going all-in on our three-leg play since it is strictly more profitable than taking the insurance method.

We are starting a three-leg correlative play on Sleeper using an effective strategy: same-game correlation. Although we cannot have every leg of our entry come from the same team, we can have them all come from the same game and use at least one prop from another team. In my play, I am taking two Bengals pass-catchers and their correlated props and adding a prop from another game to make a valid pick-3.

Pick No. 1 (Sleeper): Hayden Hurst (CIN) OVER 40.5 receiving yards

In two games without Ja’Marr Chase this season, Hurst has gone over this number once and under once. However, the under was in a conservative passing game from Joe Burrow where Joe Mixon ran all over the Panthers, and the score was 35-0 in favor of Cincinnati at halftime. In that game, Hurst appeared in just 45.8-percent of the offensive snaps and ran just 63.6-percent of the routes. Both of these numbers were his second-lowest on the season. He still tallied five catches on five targets for 35 yards.

In Week 11, the Bengals should play a more competitive game against the division rival Pittsburgh Steelers, who are a middle-of-the-pack defense against tight ends by targets allowed per game and yards per reception. Hurst cleared this number on eight targets in his previous meeting against Pittsburgh this season, and that was despite being the third option on the team.

Pick No. 2 (Sleeper): Tee Higgins (CIN) UNDER 75.5 receiving yards

Correlatively, for every target in Hurst’s direction, that is a target not in Tee Higgins‘ direction. Higgins has gone under this line in both of his games without Ja’Marr Chase in the lineup this season, and he will draw the Cameron Sutton matchup in Week 11.

Per PlayerProfiler, Sutton ranks No. 8 in coverage rating among all cornerbacks. He has not allowed more than 40 yards on his coverage since Week 3.

Pick No. 3 (Sleeper): CeeDee Lamb (DAL) OVER 75.5 receiving yards

It’s all about pass-catchers on our Sleeper card this week. CeeDee Lamb has had a couple of rough moments this season, but he is undeniably the alpha in the Dallas offense. This season, he has at least 70 receiving yards in three of his four games with Dak Prescott as the starter. Additionally, Lamb has earned at least six targets in all four games.

The Vikings have allowed the second-most receiving yards this season to wide receivers and have been helpless at the hands of alphas. Number-1 options Stefon Diggs, Jaylen Waddle, DeAndre Hopkins, and Tyreek Hill have not just cleared this number but have also all logged at least 125 receiving yards against Minnesota this season. This line is also juiced to the over on sportsbooks. It makes it the right lean in a game with a Vegas total of 48.5 which is one of the highest of Week 11.

Pick No. 4 (Underdog): Matthew Stafford (LAR) UNDER 232.5 passing yards

After missing Week 10 due to a concussion, Matthew Stafford has now been cleared to return and will attempt to break the Rams’ slump. However, there is no evidence that he is 100-percent in good health and ready to throw the football, or that he can even produce in this offense without Cooper Kupp on the field.

After Kupp was placed on the injured reserve, the Rams will now throw out Allen Robinson, Tyler Higbee, and Van Jefferson as Stafford’s top options to throw.

This line is set a couple of yards lower on sportsbooks, so go take this under now. There is a reason the Vegas total for this game is set at just 39.5, which is the second-lowest on the Sunday slate. Bet on this Rams offense being ugly and helpless without their best player.

Pick No. 5 (Underdog): Terry McLaurin (WSH) OVER 59.5 receiving yards

Terry McLaurin is an alpha regardless of the setting, but with Taylor Heinicke at quarterback, translating talent into production has become easier. In Heinicke’s four starts this season, McLaurin has been targeted at least eight times in all four games and has cleared this line in three games.

In Week 11, he faces a Texans secondary that ranks No. 25 in the NFL in pass DVOA. While number-1 cornerback Derek Stingley has been good as a rookie, Houston has now ruled him out for this contest. This makes McLaurin’s job even easier. This line is now up to 61.5 on sportsbooks. Go get the discount on Underdog while you can.

Example Slips

If you want to tail these picks verbatim, these are our recommendations. Play these player prop pick ‘ems:

  • 0.5u wager on a play with the 3 Sleeper picks, using all-in payout; profits 2.5u if all three picks hit
  • 0.5u wager on a play with the 2 Underdog picks; profits 1u if both picks hit

Your entries should look like this.

To read more about wagering player props and how to find an edge, you can check out Seth Diewold’s Beginner’s Guide to Prop Betting. To get a deposit match up to $100 on either of these sites, use promo code UNDERWORLD upon entry.