We are halfway through the regular season already. Welcome back to my written series on the NFL’s Best Pick ‘Em Player Props: Week 10! As usual, I will review selections from the previous week, then give out my favorite player prop pick ‘ems for the upcoming weekend on the DFS pages of Underdog Fantasy and Sleeper.
In each article, I’ll explain why I see value on the selected props. I will also accompany the article with at least one sample slip. Players who want to tail the picks can head over to the designated platform and join either Underdog or Sleeper using promo code UNDERWORLD for a full deposit match up to $100. Players who want to get a head-start building their pick ‘em cards earlier in the week can also visit PlayerProfilers’ DFS Dominator tool. It is here where fantasy gamers can navigate over a dozen prop leans by me and some other staff a day or two before I reveal my final picks in this article. These picks will be located in the Underdog Pick Generator on the website.
Week 9 Review
It was an absolute disasterclass on the final card for Week 9. While several leans on the Underdog Pick Generator smashed, I picked out primarily the losers for the article. Last week’s final wagers can be viewed in this article.
Week 9 Sleeper play: Aaron Jones over 64.5 rushing yards, T.J. Hockenson under 34.5 receiving yards
The troubled Green Bay Packers walked into Detroit to face the worst defense in the NFL and couldn’t produce offense in the air or through the ground. Aaron Jones took 45.7-percent of the snaps and received nine carries but got stuffed for just 25 yards before an injury ruled him out in a close game.
Meanwhile, trade deadline acquisition T.J. Hockenson was set to make his team debut for the division-leading Minnesota Vikings, but I was wary about the usage. Instead, in a competitive game against the Commanders, Hockensen ran 36 routes, one short of a season-high, drew nine targets (season-high three in the red zone), and racked up a season-high nine receptions 70 yards. So much for the slow uptick in involvement—what a flop of a pick.
Week 9 Underdog play: Amon-Ra St. Brown over 6.5 receptions, Trevor Lawrence under 35.5 passing attempts, Jakobi Meyers over 53.5 receiving yards
My only hit in the first three-legger of the season was a juiced Trevor Lawrence under on passing volume. With suspect conditions and a matchup where star-talent running back Travis Etienne could be the alpha, I faded Lawrence. We got better weather than we expected and a more favorable game script than we expected with Jacksonville trailing from the get-go, but the under still hit.
The Jaguars had 37 rushing plays, 28 of which from Etienne, and Lawrence passed at a 25/31 clip in the Jaguars home victory.
Meanwhile, Amon-Ra St. Brown‘s first game since the Hockenson trade didn’t go as planned. A low-scoring Packers-Lions game got us again and even though he drew 9 targets, the Green Bay secondary and primary corner Rasul Douglas made things difficult as the Sun God only recorded four catches for 55 yards. Meanwhile in New England, the Patriots played from ahead all day and didn’t need to pass the ball much. When they did, Meyers was still the alpha and caught five passes on six targets, but he only recorded 42 yards. It was only his second game of the season going under this number, so we got caught in a sharp line.
- Week 9 Legs: 1-4; overall -1.00u
- YTD: 17-19-1; -2.50u
Week 10 Picks
If you are new to player prop pick ‘ems, we recommend learning about them through our Beginner’s Guide article. In the Beginner’s Guide article, we preview some profitable strategies and when to use insurance. Again, we are going all-in on our three-leg play since it is strictly more profitable than taking the insurance method.
We are starting a three-leg correlative play on Sleeper using two effective strategies:
- Same-game correlation: Although we cannot have every leg of our entry come from the same team, we can have them all come from the same game and use at least one prop from opposing teams. In the play below, we’re taking overs on both the quarterback and pass-catcher from one team and pairing them with an over from their opponent.
- Reading game totals: Often in this series, we have gone after either unders on games with low projections or overs on games with high projections, per Vegas. In this week’s case, we are attacking offense in the game’s highest projected total.
Pick No. 1 (Sleeper): Patrick Mahomes (KC) OVER 26.5 completions
It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that the highest projected total in a game this Sunday comes from Jaguars vs. Chiefs. The Jaguars have one of the worst pass defenses in the league, ranking No. 27 in pass DVOA. They will have to face the best quarterback in football. While he has gone over this total only three games this season, he should have no difficulties getting whatever he wants against Jacksonville with a fully healthy, and now improved, pass-catching group.
The implied 30-point total of Kansas City is the highest on the Week 10 NFL slate. Going back to last season, Mahomes has gone over this total in nine out of 16 games where the Chiefs scored at least 28 points. While the former MVP struggled a bit against an underrated Titans defense, that shouldn’t be the case against the Jaguars.
Pick No. 2 (Sleeper): Travis Kelce (KC) OVER 0.5 receiving touchdowns
If Mahomes has the success we expect him to have against the Jaguars, and they find their way to a few touchdowns, Travis Kelce simply has to be the biggest beneficiary. Since last season, Kelce has caught a touchdown in ten of his 15 games where the Chiefs scored at least 28 points, averaging exactly one receiving touchdown per game in those contests.
Kelce’s “anytime touchdown” prop is juiced to a whopping -170 on sportsbooks. Only one of his touchdowns since last season was via a rush, so getting a nearly-identical prop at a pick ‘em price just screams value.
Pick No. 3 (Sleeper): Christian Kirk (JAX) OVER 62.5 receiving yards
By adding this correlative leg, we are building on our bet that this game will be high-scoring. The Jaguars will need to pass the ball to play catchup to try and stay competitive with the Chiefs offense. For that to occur, Christian Kirk must produce. He has cleared this number in five of his nine games this season. Now, Kirk gets to face a Chiefs defense that ranks No. 24 in the NFL in pass DVOA and has allowed six receivers this season to clear this number. This line is set one yard higher on sportsbooks, so we’re getting a tinge of a discount on Sleeper as well.
Pick No. 4 (Underdog): Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) OVER 6.5 receptions
I rolled with this prop in last week’s article. It was his sixth career game without Hockenson starting alongside him. It was the first where he didn’t clear this reception line. We are running it back in hopes of positive regression especially since opportunity wasn’t the issue. Last week against the Packers, in an ugly, low-scoring affair, St. Brown still drew nine targets but only caught four passes. He gets a much more lazy matchup in Week 10. St. Brown faces a Bears defense that ranks No. 30 in the NFL in pass DVOA and shaved off multiple starters on defense at the trade deadline.
Amon-Ra St. Brown 5 career games without T.J. Hockensen:
☀️ 8 catches (10 targets) for 109 yards, 1 TD
☀️ 8 catches (11 targets) for 111 yards, 1 TD
☀️ 9 catches (11 targets) for 91 yards, 1 TD
☀️ 8 catches (11 targets) for 90 yards, 1 TD
☀️ 8 catches (12 targets) for 73 yards pic.twitter.com/aZAi9NoqaZ
— Ahaan Rungta (@AhaanRungta) November 4, 2022
This prop is juiced to -135 on sportsbooks for good reason; St. Brown should be the runaway alpha in the Detroit offense, and it only helps his cause that No. 2 pass-catcher, Josh Reynolds, has been ruled out for this game.
Pick No. 5 (Underdog): Dalton Schultz (DAL) OVER 32.5 receiving yards
Dak Prescott is back, and he doesn’t look like he’s struggling to recover from an injury. Of course, No. 1 wide receiver CeeDee Lamb is the priority on offense, and Noah Brown has been finally been left off the injury report entering Week 10. However, Dalton Schultz is No. 2 pass-catcher until further notice when Prescott is under center.
Schultz has drawn at least five targets and recorded at least 49 receiving yards in all three of Prescott’s starts this season. Last season, he cleared this number in both games that Amari Cooper was out of the starting lineup. While the matchup may seem tough on the surface, because the Packers have given up the fewest receiving yards per game to tight ends this season, they simply have not had to face many tight ends that take priority in their offense. Schultz is the exception, and there’s a reason this prop is also juiced to -135 on sportsbooks. This makes this pick ‘em leg supremely valuable.
If you want to tail these picks verbatim, these are our recommendations. Play these player prop pick ‘ems:
- 0.5u wager on a play with the 3 Sleeper picks, using all-in payout; profits 2.5u if all three picks hit
- 0.5u wager on a play with the 2 Underdog picks; profits 1u if both picks hit
Your entries should look like this.
To read more about wagering player props and how to find edge, you can check out Seth Diewold’s Beginner’s Guide to Prop Betting. To get a deposit match up to $100 on either of these sites, use promo code UNDERWORLD upon entry.