Air Yards DFS Value Index Week 11

by Edward DeLauter · Prop Plays

This is the Air Yards DFS Value Index for Week 11!

The goal of the Air Yards DFS Value Index is to determine the best “bang for your buck” in daily fantasy. This is accomplished by utilizing a player’s Air Yards and Air Yards Share to create a weighted Air Yards metric. We then compare this metric with each player’s DFS salary to create a Value Score.

Best Values

The best value Air Yards play on the week is always scored with a value of 100. All other players are compared against that player with decreasing value. This list is not a mere recitation of where each player is ranked — a simple machine could do that. The list contextualizes each player’s Value Score to present the top ten Air Yard values in DFS for the week focusing on players priced at or below $5,500 on DraftKings.

We will highlight two wide receivers on the Air Yards Value Index priced above $5,500. Then, our focus will shift to the top ten Air Yards value plays priced at $5,500 or below on DraftKings.

Paying Up

D.J. Moore – DK: $5,700

Air Yards Value Score: 100

Air Yards: 889 (No. 11 among qualified wide receivers)|
Air Yards Share: 44.1-percent (No. 3)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 505 (No. 3)|

After melting faces and averaging over 23 fantasy points per game in weeks seven and eight, D.J. Moore has crashed down to earth. He’s been unable to eclipse seven fantasy points per game over the past two weeks. The return of Baker Mayfield under center for the Panthers only adds to the gloom and doom of Moore’s fantasy prospects. Once a chalky play on the slate, Moore is perhaps the most intriguing contrarian play of the week against a Ravens secondary that has been exploitable at times this season. I would consider some tournament exposure.

Chris Olave – DK: $6,800

Air Yards Value Score: 80.89

Air Yards: 1,129 (No. 2)|
Air Yards Share: 40.0-percent (No. 5)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 590 (No. 2)|

Chris Olave‘s Air Yards splits with Jameis Winston behind center compared to Andy Dalton are striking. Olave averaged 181.6 Air Yards per game with Winston at quarterback compared to 102 Air Yards per game with Dalton at quarterback. Great opportunity regardless of which passer is in the game, however, Winston is Olave’s best chance to hit his upside. With Dalton slated to be behind center this week, I’m more apt to play Olave in cash formats since his upside is capped.

Top-10 Value Plays

10) Jakobi Meyers – DK: $5,500

Air Yards Value Score: 39.81

Air Yards: 477 (No. 47)|
Air Yards Share: 31.6-percent (No. 21)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 155 (No. 77)|

Jakobi Meyers in cash forever and always!

9) Adam Thielen  – DK: $5,500

Air Yards Value Score: 47.50

Air Yards: 653 (No. 29)|
Air Yards Share: 24.9-percent (No. 44)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 288 (No. 30)|

Adam Thielen has seen at least 71 Air Yards in the past four weeks and has failed to score less than 9.7 fantasy points. He is a great floor play and a value play in cash. I’d shy away from any tournament exposure as he has trailed both T.J Hockenson, and Justin Jefferson in targets the past two weeks which severely limits his upside.

8) Brandin Cooks  – DK: $5,400

Air Yards Value Score: 43.61

Air Yards: 571 (No. 36)|
Air Yards Share: 28.4-percent (No. 29)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 285 (No. 32)|

Brandin Cooks returned to the Texans lineup in Week 10 and was a nullified touchdown away from cresting double-digit fantasy points. However, he was out-targeted and out-gained in Air Yards by teammate Nico Collins. With Cooks priced $1,300 more than Collins, he is an unnecessarily expensive way to gain exposure to the Texans run-heavy offense. Feel free to fade him for now.

7) George Pickens  – DK: $5,200

Air Yards Value Score: 49.55

Air Yards: 696 (No. 23)|
Air Yards Share: 25.5-percent (No. 40)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 388 (No. 17)|

The George Pickens rocket ship is in suspended animation. While the 14.5 fantasy points Pickens scored last week sounds great, he only saw four targets and posted a season-low 37 Air Yards. This week Pickens faces a Bengals secondary that is a bit banged up and exploitable, however, Pickens simply has to see more volume to be a slate breaker. If the Steelers are forced into a shootout with the Bengals, the volume will be there. Then, Pickens can realize his full potential as a tournament winner this week.

George Pickens Advanced Stats and Metrics

6) Drake London  – DK: $5,100

Air Yards Value Score: 49.57

Air Yards: 656 (No. 28)|
Air Yards Share: 26.5-percent (No. 37)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 413 (No. 15)|

Drake London saw a season-high 108 Air Yards last week against the Panther. However, he finished with 14.8 fantasy points due to a touchdown score as he only secured five of six targets for 38 yards. London continues to be a receiver to fade despite his elite 27.9-percent Target Share (No. 11). Attached to a run-heavy offense and the inaccurate Marcus Mariota, the stars are unlikely to align for London this week against the Bears.

5) Corey Davis  – DK: $4,200

Air Yards Value Score: 50.31

Air Yards: 541 (No. 39)|
Air Yards Share: 26.9-percent (No. 34)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 251 (No. 40)|

Corey Davis hasn’t played since Week 7 after injuring his knee against the Broncos. While Davis has yet to practice this week, there is a chance he returns to face the Patriots. When active, he has been the Jets leader in Air Yards with Zach Wilson starting at quarterback. That should continue when he returns, and at $4,200 he is a great value play in cash lineups.

4) Nico Collins  – DK: $4,100

Air Yards Value Score: 54.13

Air Yards: 519 (No. 42)|
Air Yards Share: 29.4-percent (No. 24)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 246 (No. 42)|

Nico Collins led the Texans with 90 Air Yards despite Brandin Cooks’s return to the lineup. He also saw a season-high 10 targets and finished as the WR19 on the week. This may be a harbinger of things to come regarding Collins’s opportunities in the Texans’ offense. However, this is still the Texans’ run-heavy offense which confines Collins to cash formats.

Nico Collins Advanced Stats & Metrics

3) Darnell Mooney  – DK: $5,400

Air Yards Value Score: 60.09

Air Yards: 651 (No. 30)|
Air Yards Share: 34.3-percent (No. 18)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 333 (No. 26)|

Darnell Mooney has failed to fully capitalize on the Justin Fields fantasy QB1 performances. He has yet to finish as a top-12 WR this season and has seen only seen 213 Air Yards in the past four games which includes a Week 7 outing in which he saw 103 Air Yards. Simply put Fields’s rushing success has dampened Mooney’s fantasy production. However, with Fields playing as he has, and Mooney set to face a poor Falcons secondary, things could change quickly for the third-year receiver. I’d be more inclined to play Mooney in cash but some tournament exposure is warranted.

2) Donovan Peoples-Jones  – DK: $4,600

Air Yards Value Score: 61.17

Air Yards: 691 (No. 25)|
Air Yards Share: 28.0-percent (No. 31)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 260 (No. 35)|

Donovan Peoples-Jones out-targeted and out-produced teammate Amari Cooper last week finishing with five receptions for 99 yards. Peoples-Jones only trails Cooper by 33 Air Yards over the past four games. He is an underrated way to gain exposure to the Brown offense. With the Browns potentially shooting out with the Bills this week, Peoples-Jones is a recommended play in all formats.

1) Mack Hollins  – DK: $4,500

Air Yards Value Score: 63.75

Air Yards: 754 (No. 18)|
Air Yards Share: 26.2-percent (No. 38)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 422 (No. 14)|

Mack Hollins took on a greater role in the Raiders’ offense last week with Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller placed on injured reserve. Hollins saw 140 Air Yards and six targets. However, he only scored 3.8 fantasy points. The average depth of target remains high a 15.4 yards (no. 5). However, the increase in targets adds a bit more sturdiness to his fantasy floor. He is a recommended play in all formats.

Good luck to everyone in Week 11. May all your Air Yards be realized.